The modern thinking Indian

Ever since the spate of bomb attacks in the last couple of years, leading to the extraordinary spectacle of bombs across Jaipur, Delhi, Bangalore, and Surat, there has been an element of insecurity building up. One would never be sure of where the next attack would come from, and any place or mode of transport was considered insecure. There was a lot of public anger, but the Congress Government had the policy of try to calm things down, promise that this would never happen again, and then wait for people to forget the enormity of these attacks, and continue with their normal politics. Taking a stricter action against politics was fraught with risks, since a number of terrorists doing these bomb blasts were driven by a radical Islamist agenda, where these attacks were a way of retaliation, a way of terrorising the country. And making stricter laws or digging much deeper into the roots of these conspiracies could expose the Congress to the charge of "being against the Muslim community", something that causes jitters to the top leadership of the Congress, including the Madam at the head. Or maybe, the Ministers and the Cabinet were not upto the job of taking steps to make the country secure. So, when the bomb blasts in the BJP ruled states, and then Delhi took place, there was massive pressure, but quickly died away, since "the resilient country absorbed these attacks and moved on, showing their spirit".
And now this unprecedented disaster that was the terror attacks in Mumbai take place. First there were cries of intelligence failure, and then it slowly emerged that the intelligence agencies were apparently doing their job, and were reporting signs from all over about something going to happen. It was not apparently a real failure of intelligence, but a failure of the intelligence analysis system, which is commanded by the Home Ministry, and supposed to be supervised by the National Security Advisor. Both have failed beyond the wildest nightmares that anybody could have. It now turns out, as reports have started coming out, that inspite of so many reports, the Government did not take any action. It is quite obvious that no Government in the world will ever really get to know that terrorists are coming to the beach at this time, on this day - you need to be prepared to handle such an eventuality; this is not a banana republic, this is a massive economy undergoing huge development, a potential super-power.
And what was this super-power incapable of doing ? One does not fault the police or the commandos who did a great job in actually going in and fighting the terrorists, and took casualties themselves, including the head of the ATS, Hemant Karkare. However, one cannot get around the problems that are being reported, and which will dog us the next time something like this happens:
- The NSG, because of logistical reasons, took 9 hours to reach. 9 hours in a terrorist situation allows the terrorist to setup a solid base, harass the hostages, and overall make the job much more difficult. With 9 hours, the NSG cannot be called a Rapid Reaction Force. They need to be spread out over the country, and if politicians can command their own planes, surely the NSG can also have a couple for these needs.
- It has been reported again and again that the NSG and Marine commandos did not know the layout of the buildings. This is inexcusable. Before going in, commandos need to know the layout of the building they are attacking, otherwise you end up giving the terrorists a huge advantage. Given that it took the commandos some time to reach, the plans for the buildings should already have been arranged for them when they were to reach.
- It is reported from time to time that the media reported on the times of attacks, from where the commandos were going to attack, and so on. If the attackers indeed did have satellite phones (or even simple mobile phones), it would have been simple for them to get information about the goings-on from their associates watching on television. Typically a media blackout with a perimeter cordon should have been in place (with one person being the overall spokesperson for the various Government agencies, to avoid confusion). News now available seems to indicate that they used this mechanism, and used satellite phones for this purpose and normal cell phones that they took from hostages. Why are there no jammers (I am not real technical on this, but it seems logical) employed at such times ?
- There are negative reports already on the level of communication between different intelligence agencies and the armed forces, with finger-pointing and blame-evading happening at a high speed. After the Kargil War, one of the major recommendations of the post-war report was that intelligence sharing was flawed, and needs much better coordination.
- Reports from Maharashtra state that the state of police training and equipment is abysmal. They don't have modern weapons, no training, no firing range to practise, so it is hard to believe that even when motivated, they would be able to take a stand against Ak-47 armed dedicated and well trained terrorists.
So what is the way ahead ? This act of terrorism has exposed the inability of the country to have a unified security mechanism that can effectively handle such incidents. You cannot prevent terrorism, but the problem in this case is that the lack of security (and consciousness regarding security) is such that terrorists in this case felt that they could easily commit all these tasks, and even go away. There is a lot of skepticism about whether, besides changing some people, there will be any action taken. The fight against terror, as seen by policies of the US, Britain, etc, can be messy, and needs to happen on a continuous basis.

Labels: Anger, Congress, Governance, India, Intelligence, Pakistan, Responsibility, Security, Terrorism

In yet another vivid depiction of the poor state of security in the country (and especially in the capital city), a bomb blast happened in the Mehrauli region of Delhi; this blast killed a young boy (he had stopped to pick up the tiffin in which the bomb was kept) and injured many more. This is shocking because of many reasons:
1. With some major bomb blasts having happened in Delhi only a fortnight back, one would have expected the security level to have been very high. However, it shows for the contempt that the bomb makers and deliverers have for the level of security in the city that a bomb was placed and exploded
2. The way in which this bomb was deployed was like the ultimate in arrogance. From reports, there were people who came in a motorcycle to a crowded street, came and dropped the bomb in broad daylight (unlike in other cases where the bombs were placed with some concealment)
3. Defensive nature of the police and Government response was apparent. There was an attempt to prevent people from feeling that all the arrests and terrorist module breaking claims of the previous weeks were not in vain - so instead the police talked about how these were not connected with the IM terrorists. It was left to the media to raise the frightening thought that if these were not the Indian Mujahideen, then how many terrorist groups were there who were planting bombs in Delhi ?
4. Within a span of a few hours, there were television crews standing on the exact spot where the bomb had exploded. I am not an expert on police methods, but I thought that securing the site of such explosions for further forensic analysis was required.
5. One wonders about the resolve of the Government to really push for anti-terrorist efforts vs. their worries about perceived loss of minority vote-banks. Here you have the Delhi Police (controlled by the center) arresting some students who belonged to Jamia Milia, and the VC of Jamia promises them legal aid (the university is also central government funded). And you have the inane comparisons being made by the Congress that Jamia has also paid for students arrested for vandalism ! Incredible, vandalism = terrorism. Next, if a Jamia student is arrested for murder, the university should also come to his aid.
6. Anti-terror laws. Enough already discussed, but every time an explosion happens, the Government says now we will go in for strict measures; then the allies remind them that Muslim votes will be affected if they go in for strict laws, and the ministers backtrack (instead of promising better safeguards)
Already, the country is not very easy to secure. We have a huge country, with a diverse set of citizens, and determined terrorists are difficult to stop. However, with lack of improper intelligence, and problems similar to what are described above, it's almost like open season for terrorism.

Labels: Congress, Governance, Intelligence, Investigation, Politics, Responsibility, Security, Terrorism

The recent attacks (bomb blasts) in Delhi that killed 10's of people seem to have finally made the Government realize how its hands are being burnt with respect to having an anti-terror law. Over the past many years, most observers have come to the realization that any policy change in India happens only for political reasons, and the same is true with respect to having a much tougher anti-terror law.
When the BJA (NDA) Government was in paper, it had brought in the tough POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) that curtailed many civil liberties and made it easier for the security agencies and the police to keep people in custody whom they believed were important for their investigations. It is also doubtless true that there would have been cases of misuse of this law, and such instances (and many other accusations) would be more true in the case of the Muslim community in India. Consequently, the law was soon proclaimed as against minority interests, helped by the fact that the 'anti-Muslim' BJP was in power. Any party wanting to court the Muslim vote would have to adopt a policy of anti-POTA, something that the Congress party adopted, and they quickly fulfilled this pledge after they came to power.
Fast-forward a few years, and the UPA (Congress) Government is on the mat in terms of internal security; bombs go off as if the terrorists just have to pick a place and they can cause numerous explosions, the security agencies make almost public appeals that they need a stronger law, and the Congress Home Minister (Shivraj Patil) is seen as a very weak and incompetent minister. The Congress seems to have even weathered the continuous bomb blasts in Bangalore and Ahemdabad and the many other bombs found in Surat (and many other bomb blasts earlier, including Jaipur); they were criticized and the Gujarat Chief Minister embarrassed the center by getting his police to quickly arrest some of the alleged conspirators.
However, the media by now had taken to savaging the Government's political driven need not to bring in a more enhanced anti-terror law, and it were the Delhi blasts (in open places and prominent locations) that seemed to have currently broken the political will of the Government. The Congress seems to have realized that they are being taken as weak on internal security, and for the first time, the Prime Minister seems to be talking about intelligence failures and other measures:

In the wake of continuing terror attacks in the country, the UPA government has mooted a "tougher-than-Pota" law. Although the recommendation has come from the Administrative Reforms Commission, the timing of its release — when the government is struggling to shake off a "soft on terror" tag its rivals have sought to pin to it and ahead of state polls — is seen to be loaded with significance.
Implementation of the law is not going to be easy because the Congress has not just opposed Pota, it has campaigned for its repeal. It will also have to contend with allies who remain opposed to a special anti-terror law. More crucially, special terror laws have been a fraught issue evoking strong negative vibes from the minority community, which has maintained that these have been used to frame innocents.

It is very much possible that the Government is seeking to dissipate some of the current pressures on it by talking about a law, and will slowly let all this talk slide when the situation seems to come under control, and there are non-bomb related other issues that occupy the attention of the country.
The BJP also uses the refusal of the Central Congress Government to sanction a Gujarat special anti-terrorism law based on similar lines as the current Maharashtra one. The BJP argues that the Congress is doing it for political reasons, and it really does not care about the security of the country, a trap that the Congress wants to avoid as we draw near to elections.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Intelligence, Investigation, Law, Police, Security, Terrorism

It seems like we are living in a B-grade movie about some invisible hands deciding to blow up things all over the country, and soon you have explosions happening on a regular basis in various cities over the country; and on the movie theme, the politicians the police are either involved, or are incompetent. Well, guess what, this is not a movie. Terrorists are cocking a snook at the country, and the incompetent Central Government can do nothing but mount platitudes about how 'This is a great tragedy', 'We need a central agency for terror prevention', 'These things will be properly investigated and the culprits brought to trial', and so on. You must have heard of all of these ?
And we move on. There have been so many bomb blasts that happen nowadays that we are temporarily shocked by the carnage that happens, by the inability of the police to catch these people (even when it seems that a large number of people would be involved due to the number of simultaneous blasts), and then we all forget about it. I can remember a time when the transistor bombs in Delhi buses had shaken everybody, and now we routinely get bomb attacks in which more 10's of people die, and ... we move on.
What do we see the Government doing ? Well, I am sure that the intelligence agencies will be doing something, but the fact is that, in a federal structure such as ours, there are a number of different central and state level intelligence agencies (as well as the very weak intelligence network of the police); as a result, unless there is effective coordination, things are not going to work together. And who is responsible for doing this coordination ? There are primarily 2 gentleman at different levels for this - one is the National Security Advisor (Mr. Narayanan, who is unable to stem the rot in RAW, and unable to get the Government to reform things so that people find working in the intelligence services rewarding career wise).
The other is the Home Minister - Mr. Shivraj Patil. If India had ever had a home minister who was more low-profile, and unable to make a mark, it is difficult to find one. It is during his time that we have had a massive escalation in the security problems in the country (with more bomb blasts than ever before); the enduring image of him from the time of the Gujarat blasts is of him trying to prevent his clothes from getting dirty during the rain. It was telling on the state of confidence in the central Government that the Gujrat police was the one that seemingly cracked the terrorist blast cases of Surat and Ahemdabad without much support from the center. When he is asked a pointed question about the terrorist cases, even Congressmen would not be surprised if he says stuff such 'we are investigating', 'we cannot blame others', 'current laws are fine to handle terrorist cases', or more mournfully 'we need a central agency, but the states are not cooperating'. Given the rampant misuse of the CBI by the Congress, it is not hard to see why the states do not want to trust a Central Congress Government with a central powerful anti-terrorist agency.
What is the solution ? Steps like the Deoband school declaring such bomb blasts as anti-Islamic help, and some more intense investigation with inter-agency cooperation would help to solve these immediate cases; but there is a total lack of long term steps as propounded by many experts:
1. Get beat constables to go around the neighborhoods more often
2. Make intelligence wings of the police more lucrative to join
3. Prevent politicisation of anti-terrorist efforts
4. Make safety more important (for example, today I had gone to the Lajpat Nagar market in Delhi - a fairly crowded place). In the central market, there is cordoning off and entry is only through a walk-in bomb detector gate, but the effect was gone. The gate was not working, and there were no policemen nearby. In India's crowded and culturally mixed population, it is hard to detect potential terrorists, but at least things should not be made easy for them)

Labels: Congress, Governance, Intelligence, Investigation, Police, Politics, Responsibility, Security, Terrorism

It was a time that India has rarely seen in the past. Except for the transistor blasts in the 80's in Delhi, and then the bomb blasts that shook Bombay in 1993, the recent 3 day carnage (2 day + potential third) shook the nation and highlighted the total ease with which terrorists can destroy normal life in a city; at the same time, this also highlighted the current inability of the police and intelligence services to penetrate these terrorist groups and cells. People are worried, given that there were bombs on 3 successive days (even though the bombs did not burst in Surat); it seems that it is so easy to place bombs inside a crowded city, without people noticing, and then blow them up to cause an incredible amount of damage.
The sheer planning of the attack was a shock. This was not 1 or 2 bombs, these were numerous bombs that were placed in different parts of the city. If it was not so serious, placing bombs on top of a tree (they found such a bomb in Surat) and in many other public places takes some amount of time and effort, and the plotters were able to do so. In addition, it would seem that they did dry runs for these attacks, and again they were not detected.
The bomb making has moved away from using the RDX used in earlier bombs; now this may seem odd given that RDX is a much better explosive, but RDX leaves forensic traces, and showcases the role of Pakistan. Using common explosive, or even chemicals found in fertilizers makes it much more difficult to determine where the explosives came from, and makes post-blast investigation more difficult.
The planning for the bombs has been much more destructive; it was seen in Iraq that bombs were placed and timed such that consequent bombs would cause more damage to the panicking crowd; in the bomb blasts now, and in Jaipur earlier, the bombs were placed such that they would cause more damage by anticipating the people movement. In Jaipur, the bombs were placed in the market such that a running mob would be attacked by another bomb; in Ahmadabad, a bomb was placed in the hospital to go off sometime after the first attacks. People behind the bombs are out for maximum human life, and not deserving of any kind of 'misguided youth or citizens' talk. They need to be hunted down with the maximum ferocity.
What is the most problematic is the issue related to an almost total failure of the intelligence network. For some decades now, almost since the time of Indira Gandhi, the Intelligence Bureau has also been serving to collect information on the opposition, away from its main mission to prevent law and order issues and break-up threats to the nation and individual states. This has reached such a level that there is no incentive for skilled people to join the intelligence network; the fight between the different intelligence networks rules out much cooperation, and the various State and Central Governments could not care less. It is only at the time of such bomb attacks that they talk about preventing such attacks, only to fail again.

Labels: Congress, Governance, Intelligence, Investigation, Politics, Terrorism