The modern thinking Indian

A democratic country believes by certain principles; one of the most important ones is to recognize freedom of speech, and make that a corner-store of policy. There are certain real world considerations that come into this freedom of speech (one classic example is that of hate speech, where you would certainly like to control such freedom of expression), but such considerations should be only after a lot of thought, not based on political thinking.
The ban and entire treatment of Jaswant Singh's book was totally an expression of politics. The book, 'Jinnah - India, Partition, Independence' tries to portray a different thought on the role of the key players at the time of partition, and re-evaluates the role of Mahatma Gandhi, Sardar Patel, Nehru, and Jinnah. In official reading of history from the Indian side, Jinnah is the arch-villain, and Nehru was the one who reluctantly agreed to partition, even though it cast a huge emotional hole in him.
Jaswant Singh takes a fresher look at all this, portraying each of these monumental figures as people with a grey side to their character, in the sense that Nehru and Sardar Patel also had a role to play in the movement towards partition. And it was this depiction of history, especially the role of Patel, that caused a huge uproar. Without any due process, just on the basis of a book (and almost repeating what Advani had said earlier about Jinnah), Jaswant Singh was cast aside from the BJP and not even given a chance to present his case. And in further political moves, the Gujarat Government promptly banned the book for causing the depiction of Sardar Patel in a negative light.
It is this decision by the Gujarat Government that was over-turned by the court, claiming that the decision was invalid, and did not present a valid case. However, since the court allowed the Gujarat Government to file a fresh notification, one can expect that the Government will do so again. The Gujarat Government does not want it depicted that a high ranking BJP member wrote a book denigrating Sardar Patel and the Government was not seen to be taking any action.
All this is nothing but politics. From what I have read of the book, it does not go into any kind of hate speech, and does not provoke any kind of lowering of respect of the nation. At the same time, we as a nation should be strong enough to handle any such book that could present other sides of our previous god-like leaders.

Labels: Ban, BJP, Case, Court, Gujarat, Jaswant Singh, Modi, Political, Politics

When the results for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha (Parliament) elections were out, everybody was surprised by the scope of the Congress victory. The Left would have been shell-shocked by the scope of their reduction in seats and dramatic bad run in both West Bengal and Kerala, but it was the BJP that was most badly affected. The BJP, which once ruled India for 5 years, had just lost its second general elections (and both of them were lost under the leadership of Lal Krishna Advani - this election was his last attempt to be the Prime Minister of India, since he would be too old the next time).
For the first few weeks after the election, it seemed like the BJP was literally in shell-shock, the party quickly resisted a half-hearted attempt by Advani to resign as the leader of the party (given that there is no clear demarcated second line leader - the presumed next generation leader, Modi, could not carry his state to a complete sweep (which was almost a rejection for him), and all the others are in full fighting mode, it would have been difficult for the party to select a new leader agreeable to all). Murli Manohar Joshi tried to stake a brief claim, but that was quickly thwarted.
Now the voices in the party are being heard loud and clear, and there is a demand for an accountability of the defeat of the party. After all, the party has lost badly in many of the states that were supposed to be good for the party (or had been in the past), such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttrakhand, Delhi. For a party that was called the natural party of the middle class and the urban section, not being able to make a mark in Delhi and Bombay shows how much the party seems to have swayed away from being an effective contender for power.
In the last 2 days, there has been a sudden jump in the demand for accountability, and this seems to be related to the recent movements of Advani retaining the leadership of the party, Arun Jaitely becoming the leader in the upper house, and Sushma Swaraj being the deputy leader in the lower house. Other leaders who have been left out and who are seen as having been left out such as Jaswant Singh, Arun Shourie, and Yashwant Sinha have been demanding for more accountability and also that people who had a leadership role in the elections should have to bear the cross for the defeat (targeted at Jaitely, since he was the de-facto head of the campaign and the election effort).
If the BJP wants to come back to being taken as a serious contender for power, it needs to focus more on being an inclusive party. People, even those who were attracted by the earlier Hindutva campaign, are repelled by the hard-line stances on many areas such as the attack on people in a pub in Mangalore, the attacks on churches, the utterances of Varun Gandhi (and their not being condemned). The party needs to show how it can be seen as having a vision for the future, and needs to focus on development (and they have 2 chief ministers who are still there on the basis of their development platform - Modi in Gujarat, and Raman Singh of Chattisgarh).
The party also needs to be more realistic and pragmatic on their policies, as being seen on the side of the Left parties in opposing the nuclear deal was an idiotic posture that disillusioned many of their supporters, and their refusal to cooperate with the Government on accelerating some of the reforms after the exit of the Left parties was also a policy doomed to showing them in poor light. The party can still make good, but it requires a lot of inner look, and self-effort. There is discussion going around about problems in ties with the RSS, but the party needs to fine-tune those ties so that they can use the committed cadre of the RSS while not adopting the reprehensible policies of many of the sister organizations such as the VHP and the Bajrang Dal.

Labels: BJP, Election, Future, India, Politics, Responsibility

When the Congress Government came back to power with an enhanced mandate and higher numbers (and consequently, a less dependence on allies to make up its numbers), the markets welcomed the step, with people talking about a re-start of the earlier stalled divestment process. In fact, with the amount of money that the Government has committed towards its ambitious social welfare programs, it needs to arrange for large sums of money to fund these programs. The disinvestment program seems a good way to arrange money for these programs. However, not everything seems to be going the same way for the Congress; even though the allies are lower in number, the opposition from them is still prevalent.
Right now, the 2 main allies of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress of Mamta Banerjee, and the DMK of Karunanidhi seem to have problems with the policy of disinvestment. The DMK is opposed to the policy of disinvestment for those Public Sector Units that are located in Tamil Nadu (these PSU's are a source of public patronage, and the DMK needs to ensure that continuous patronage opportunities remain). The poltician belonging to DMK and Karunanidhi's daughter, Kanimozhi, made a statement against the process of disinvestment as well (link to article):

In the Rajya Sabha, the Congress-led government's new agenda for disinvestment faced opposition from its key ally DMK. The DMK's opposition to the government's disinvestment policy echoed in the Upper House with party MP Kanimozhi arguing that generating revenue by divesting the PSUs would not help. "I welcome that the UPA government has laid a lot of emphasis on welfare schemes and on social sector spending. But we also have to keep away from the temptation of generating revenue by disinvesting our PSUs," Kanimozhi said
Another important ally, Trinamool Congress, has already made it clear that it would not allow rampant disinvestment of the PSUs. Though the party has not yet made its stand clear in the House, party chief Mamata Banerjee opposed some of the `radical' ideas when the draft of the President's address was discussed among the cabinet ministers, Trinamool sources said.

Principally, the Government has no role to play in many of the sectors of industry ? After all, why is the Government in the business of running airlines and having to spend huge amounts from taxpayer's money to prop up Air India, or be in the business of telecom, or in financial industry, or many other similar areas. These are then totally dependent on the whims and fancies of the Minister (even for a critical area such as Road building where the previous Minister had a big hand in the slow down of road expansion).
Further, when the Government does want to disinvest, for sectors of industry where the Government should have a zero role, it should get optimum return. This is not possible through the normal case where the Government disinvests its shares while maintaining a 51% stake in some of the PSU's. For PSU's where a Government stake is not critical, it is better to follow the earlier Government (NDA) policy of strategic sale whereby the Government sells its controlling stake to bidders. This results in a much higher return, and is the optimum way to get returns from the disinvestment process.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Disinvestment, Finance, Money

So, the bitterly contested election results of the Indian Lok Sabha (Parliamentary elections) are out, and it is the incumbent party, the Congress Party that is the decisive winner. During the course of the campaign and even during the month long multi-stage voting process, it seemed that there was a tight fight between the Congress and the BJP led camps. It was also projected that there would be an incredible fight for support from the smaller parties all over the country. This prospect saw these parties salivating over the prospect, and over the demands they would make from the major parties for this support.
So there was a constant tussle about whether existing partners are viable or not, and some parties made gambles. The Biju Janta Dal gambled that it would come back to power without the support of the BJP, the Congress gambled that it would need to build long-term in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (and in Bihar, it did not have much of a choice, since Lalu gave the party only 3 seats). The Congress gambled about going with the DMK even though Jayalalitha seemed to be the one riding the victory wagon. However, as the election result day came closer, nervousness gripped the Congress and it talked about changing partners, soliciting the support of the Left, looking to Nitish and Jayalalitha for support, and even trying to get closer to the Samajwadi Party.
The exit polls that started getting published once the stay on them was removed after the 13th (the last phase of election) were again off the mark, since they all projected that the Congress will have a narrow lead over the BJP and would need support from many parties. The BJP of course refused to believe such polls and stood fast in projecting that they will be the victors.
And then came the election results - and they were shocking to everyone. The Congress led poll, the UPA, is almost at the point of having half the seats, while the BJP led alliance, the NDA, is way behind. The Congress gained seats all over the country, with the party looking to reach 200 seats on its own (its best result since it started declining in the 1989 polls); it trounced the BJP in many states that the BJP should count as core constituencies such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttranchal, and made gains even in states such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujrat. The Congress made real good in states such as Andhra Pradesh, with the partners, the DMK, in Tamil Nadu.
However, the major surprises in this election happened in multiple states; in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress needs to get back its core constituency and it seems that the gamble it took seems to have paid off (it has got 20 seats on its own), in Maharashtra, the MNS seems to have bitten into the seats of the Shiv Sena and the BJP and led the Congress to victory. The biggest surprise has been the Left strongholds of Kerala and West Bengal. Kerala frequently changes between the Congress and the Communist, and in this election, the fight between the different factions of the Communist party propelled the Congress to victory. The biggest surprise seems to have been in West Bengal where the Congress combination with Mamta Banerjee blew away the Communist party in the state where the Communists have held sway since 1977.
What are some of the conclusions from this election:
- Manmohan Singh re-emerges as the Congress Prime Minister with a much stronger support and with less interference from supporting parties
- The BJP leader LK Advani will slowly fade away - he is already 81 years old and unlikely to be the leader in the next election
- Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are the unquestioned leaders of the country now - even people such as me who do not believe in dynastic based leadership have to acknowledge that they have led their party to a genuine victory
- Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik are new emblems of victory, with strong shows of performance and low individual corruption levels
- The Left, having been used to a much stronger influence in the last Parliament will be a pale self with questions about the leadership becoming much stronger
- Mayawati has faced a severe setback in her quest for national leadership; the same goes for former influential leaders such as Mulayam Singh Yadav (who suffered after inducting Kalyan Singh), Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan
- Economic policies and world related policies should remain the same and in fact become more clear and without the holding back due to the Left

Labels: BJP, Congress, Election, India, Left, Mayawati, Parliament, Politics, Ram Vilas Paswan

The case of Varun Gandhi and his detention by the Mayawati Government is reaching a critical point. As a lot of people may be aware, Varun Gandhi, in a speech made some time back, sought to inflame people by speaking against the Muslim community. It is difficult to justify what he is stated to have said, since his speech was supposed to have been very provocative (and I am sure that people will point out that other people have made equally provocative or more provocative speeches and got off lightly, but that is a separate matter). He was condemned by wide sections of the press and political parties, and the Election Commission took note of what he had said (but did not have powers to do much about a speech).
However, what happened next was the troubling part. An FIR was lodged against him, and he was taken in custody. Next, the Mayawati Government stated that it would lodge a case under the National Security Act (meant to be used against terrorists or habitual dangerous criminals) against Varun. And soon enough, the UP Government filed a case against him, using the violence that happened when Varun was being lodged in the jail after surrender.
The NSA is an Act with strict provisions, such as "Under the provisions of the NSA, a person cannot get bail atleast for six months"; if this had happened, Varun would have had to remain in jail till elections are over. However, there is a right to appeal in the Supreme Court, and also the state advisory panel takes a decision on the persons against whom the NSA has been filed. In both cases, the Mayawati Government has not been able to justify the harsh measure used for what is basically a 'hate speech' (not to reduce the significance of what Varun had said, but there are criminals and terrorists against whom the NSA has not been applied). Here is an excerpt of what the state advisory panel stated:

The Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh did not apply its mind and violated cannons of natural justice in invoking National Security Act on BJP leader Varun Gandhi raising a question of bias, says the state advisory board which struck down the NSA against him. The Board said "there was non-application of mind and breach of rules of natural justice" by the authorities which raises a question of "bias" and "legal malafides" for invoking NSA against the 29-year-old BJP leader who was not supplied with the copy of the order and material, including the CD of the alleged hate speeches which were the basis for taking stringent action.

The board further points out that the District Magistrate, the competent authority to pass the NSA order, based these orders on 2 FIR's that were not filed by anybody else but the DM (to re-state, the DM filed 2 FIR's, and then used these 2 FIR's to show as evidence to pass the NSA orders).
Most people have no doubt that the reason that the DM passed the NSA order was so that the Mayawati Government, in order to shore up its secular credentials, could show that it was aggressive in protecting the interests of minorities. While I cannot condone the speech by Varun, it is equally hard to agree when somebody twists laws and justice for furthering their own agenda and scoring political points.

Labels: BJP, Court, Crime, Election, Mayawati, Minority, Police, Politics, Punishment, Secular

National parties have always had problems with the concept of partners in different states, since the concept of having a partner who is strong in a state is that the national party has to play second fiddle in the specific state. The BJP faces this to some extent in Punjab (where the Akali Dal believes that it is the stronger party), in Bihar (where the JD(U) is the stronger party), in Maharashtra (where the playing second fiddle to the Shiv Sena is something that the party does not really like), in Orissa (where the senior member, Naveen Patnaik's BJD moved away suddenly); however, the BJP has less scope for such problems in the southern states where it needs to expand since it does not have much of a base in Andhra, Tamil Nadu, or Kerala. Similarly, states such as West Bengal are out of its reach for some time.
However, the Congress is running into far more problems with respect to its alliance, especially as it publicly (and in full media awareness) pitches for more allies post-results. For 5 years, the Congress lived with alliance partners without much problems except for the Left (whose morals always caused them to have problems with the policies of the Left). However, as it approached the election, it started shedding allies, until it is primarily right now left with just a few - Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and IUML in Kerala.
In other states, the basic problem is with having to search for allies who are either in competition with the Congress, or are in competition with the current allies of the Congress. So, for example when Rahul Gandhi suggested that the Congress is open to new allies, he was scouting for support from the left, from Nitish Kumar's JD(U), from the AIADMK, from Naveen Patnaik's BJD, he immediately ran into trouble. The Congress is allied with Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, and in both Kerala and Bengal, the Congress is pitted in a battle with the Communist Parties. Mamta did not appreciate the comments by Rahul inviting support from the Left, and neither will the DMK about any potential support from Jayalalitha. Similarly, Lalu Prasad Yadav will certainly not be happy about any overtures to Nitish Kumar.
In states such as Orissa, the Congress is in bitter competition with the BJD, and similarly with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. It will difficult for it to accept support from these parties, since the state units of the Congress will find it difficult to support these changed circumstances, but they will not have an option if the Congress needs support for the Central Government. And a number of such parties will provide support since they will also get their pound of flesh from the Government formation. The next few weeks will be interesting to watch, people will truly understand the meaning of the phrase, 'nothing is impossible'.

Labels: Alliance, BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, India, Left, Parliament, Politics

In the last election, the NDA was the dominant party, and with the 'India Shining' campaign, it seemed that nothing could stop the BJP led front from coming to power. However, the people of India had different ideas, and did not give the BJP the required number of seats so that the BJP could come to power as a part of the NDA. It was the Congress that had a larger number of seats; it was at that time that the Congress, probably for the first time in its long existence, developed the ability to form coalitions. The Congress looked far and wide, and allied itself with a number of parties that would have earlier opposed the Congress (with some of the alliances being before the election, and some after the election). So the Congress allied itself with people as varied as Sharad Pawar's NCP, the Bihar parties of Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, DMK, PMK, and a few other smaller parties. More importantly, the Left parties, who are sworn allies of the Congress in Kerala and West Bengal were also induced to be supporting parties due to prevent the coming to power of the BJP.
Most of these alliances existed almost till the end of the Congress term, with remaining in power being a great inducement for all involved. However, these stable alliances now seem totally in disarray as we are now in the midst of polls. Take a sample of what one of the most trusted allies, Laloo Prasad Yadav says (link to article):

The Railway Minister, who all along has maintained that Manmohan Singh was the UPA candidate, on Tuesday sang a different tune against the backdrop of his party RJD and the Congress going their own ways to fight the elections in Bihar. "UPA is a confederation of secular parties and does not belong only to the Congress. We will sit together (after the elections are over) to chalk out a common minimum programme and in consultation with all our partners select a leader who will be the prime minister," Prasad told reporters in Patna.
Asked about the strained relations between the RJD-LJP alliance in Bihar and the Congress, Prasad said, "These things are natural during elections. Do you expect us to worship each other. There is a famine of candidates in the Congress, which is busy rebuilding and reviving its organisation. But despite the presence of Congress candidates in the fray in large numbers against nominees of secular parties the NDA will be wiped out," he said.

In addition, everybody knows how the Left is already in open opposition to the Congress, and has been so ever since Manmohan Singh made his effort to push for the India-US nuclear deal. The UPA has also other constituents such as the PMK, and has managed to make enmity with both Mayawati and Mulayam Singh.
Part of the reason for this strain in relations, especially in the Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, is the need for Congress to remake itself in these states. It was in the 1989 election that the Congress downfall in these key states became apparent, to the extent that the Congress is almost non-existent in these states. It is the dream of Congress strategy makers to make the Congress more powerful in these states again, and the only way they can do that is to regain the support of many caste groups that were with them, and are now with these parties. It is also for the same reason that the caste groups are fine with allying with the Congress as long as the Congress plays second fiddle, and gains ground in other states.
The irony of the disintegration of the UPA as a pre-election alliance is that it was the BJP that has been suffering the jolts earlier. They were deserted by Chandrababu Naidu earlier, and on the eve of this election, it was the close partner, Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janta Dal who deserted the BJP (and it was the Congress which was being gleeful when all this happened).
However, does something really change ? If the elections throw up a hung parliament, one can be sure that these parties will come together, as the need to throw up a 'secular' alternative to the BJP will still remain as a glue to make sure that they retain their power.

Labels: Alliance, BJP, Caste, Conflict, Congress, Election, India, Laloo, Left, Parliament, Political, Politics, Ram Vilas Paswan

Maybe the name should be changed to that of the NRI Premiere League now; given that more NRI's will now be watching the match live at the ground rather than Indians. Last year, the Indian Premier League (after initial criticism of the high costs involved), turned into a spectacular crowd fest, with huge audience participation. The T-20 cricket tournament was a huge TV success, to the extent that movie makers were reluctant to release movies in the same time frame. So, when the cricket tournament was planned for the second run this year, there was a wide spread anticipation that the tournament would be even bigger and more spectacular this year.
And then the attack on the Sri Lankan cricketers in Pakistan, the neighboring country where attacks by militants are common. The attack was the first manifestation that radical elements were starting to attack the popular game of cricket; the first reaction was to lay out the differences between India and Pakistan in term of security and to emphasize that playing of the game was safe in India. One does not want the perception that the security situation in India is so bad that the Government cannot ensure security for international sportspersons. After all, the Commonwealth Games are planned for 2010, and security is one of the critical points.
However, it soon became clear that the Government did not really care about this logic; the argument that was becoming clear was that holding the IPL in India would not lend anything positive to the Government; however, if any security incident happened during this duration, the BJP would pounce upon the incident as another symptom of the Government being soft on terror; so the apparent simpler option was to get various Congress states to announce that they could not arrange for the proper security of the event. Here is an extract from an article that criticizes the action by the Government of India (link to article):

In the course of just one successful season, IPL had become one of the biggest global brands, comparable to Wimbledon and the football World Cup. An outpouring of meanness drove the Nano plant out of West Bengal. Last week, P Chidambaram donned the mantle of Mamata Banerjee and forced IPL out of India. Like Mamata, who felt that Ratan Tata could be browbeaten because he was a hostage to money already invested in Singur, North Block proceeded on the assumption that the IPL was a helpless captive. And just as Tata had to cut his losses and resist blackmail politics, Lalit Modi inveigled IPL out of a desperate situation with a daredevil flight to South Africa.
It is more than a little curious that the IPL faced resistance only from the Congress-ruled states. It was the firm no from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Delhi that finally clinched the issue in favour of South Africa. In Delhi, where policing is under the direct purview of the Centre, even chief minister Sheila Dikshit was in favour of hosting matches. Yet, the police chief informed her and Delhi Cricket Association president Arun Jaitley that no permission would be forthcoming before, during and after the polling. As far as the Centre was concerned, IPL could go to hell.

There are multiple reasons why the Congress could have done this. The Congress is not particularly happy with Sharad Pawar, and even less so with Lalit Modi, and would have thought that the IPL would have to be postponed; however, the move to take the IPL out of the country was not something that the Congress liked either. So when the IPL move out of India was announced on security considerations, the Government criticized the move as trying to play politics with sports, and so on. Strange objection, given that the reason that the IPL could not be held as per schedule was that the games were supposed to be clashing with elections and that no forces could be spared for the games (the country cannot arrange for enough security to cover an event such as IPL when the elections are going on ? What happens if something serious take place on the Pakistan border ? Where will the required forces be found then ?)

Labels: BJP, Congress, Cricket, Image, India, Politics, Security

For the first time in the country, the term 'Hindu terrorist' has come into common usage. It all started with the Malegaon blasts of September 29, outside the office of SIMI where 6 people died in the explosion, and many others were injured. As it turns out, this was not a case where terrorists, inspired by the word of radical Islam, had committed the crime. While the blast is under probe, all information that has been revealed so far by the ATS, and by the press, is that this was in the nature of a retaliatory attack (retaliation for the bomb attacks carried out by terrorists inspired by radical thought). While investigation is being carried out, this incident and the investigation has already led to a huge amount of hue and cry.
For once, both the BJP and the Shiv Sena are on the defensive. One of the main accused, the Sadhavi, Pragya Singh Thakur, was apparently a fiery speaker who was capable of rousing the spirits of people; incidentally, she was also a former national executive president of the Durga Vahini, and has been shown in the same photo as Rajnath Singh and the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister. The BJP has disowned her and her actions, claiming that this was done after she left the organization (and this part may be true). However, many constituents of the Sangh Parivaar are not happy with this and are pitching for the BJP to support the accused. The Shiv Sena is in total support of the accused (one can always consider the Shiv Sena to have a sense of irrationality in their actions).
This is where the BJP should have been a party with a difference. Having a plank of National Security would mean that the party should stand firm against anyone who indulges in matters such as riots and bomb blasts. In this case, the refusal of the party to take a firm stand against the alleged bomb plotters means that the actions of the party are similar to the actions of the Congress, Samajwadi Party and are personally very disappointing. No matter what the reason, there cannot be any justification for supporting any brand of terrorists, whether they be terrorist inspired by radical Islamic theology or Hindu terrorists inspired by some concept of revenge. The bigger worry (based on current police reports) is that a senior army officer is involved, against their duty of protecting the nation:

Public prosecutor Ajay Misar said in the court that Purohit had attended most of the meetings organised by others accused at Kashmir, Pune, Bhopal, Nashik, and Deolali. "Since he is a senior army officer, he could have been the source for the RDX used in the bomb. We also have evidence that he distributed money to several people through his organisation through cheques and cash. The financial transactions are through hawala as well," said Misar, adding, "Purohit also trained several youths in bomb making."
Those arrested also include retired Major Ramesh Upadhyay and former Durga Vahini national executive president sadhvi Pragya Singh Thakur. The ATS completed all the formalities regarding the arrest of Lt Col Purohit — the first instance of an armyman being booked for a terror act — on Tuesday evening. Purohit came in contact with Upadhyay when he was posted at Nashik as liaison unit officer. Sources said he used the Nashik stint to fraternise with the extremists in various radical Hindu outfits and to draw them into Abhinav Bharat fold.

It is incumbent to nip such attacks and planning in the bud. The country already faces enough problems from terrorists and separatists in many corners of the country without having more people join this front (and there are terrorists who are Hindu as well - the ULFA, Naxalities, and many others). The BJP and other parties should take the lead in cutting such misguided people from getting public support and that there is no sympathy for them. Else, there is no justification in the BJP blaming people for showing support for the terrorists killed in the Jamia Nagar shootout in Delhi.

Labels: Army, BJP, Congress, Hypocrisy, Investigation, Military, Police, Politics, Responsibility, Security, Terrorism, Violence

The recent attacks (bomb blasts) in Delhi that killed 10's of people seem to have finally made the Government realize how its hands are being burnt with respect to having an anti-terror law. Over the past many years, most observers have come to the realization that any policy change in India happens only for political reasons, and the same is true with respect to having a much tougher anti-terror law.
When the BJA (NDA) Government was in paper, it had brought in the tough POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) that curtailed many civil liberties and made it easier for the security agencies and the police to keep people in custody whom they believed were important for their investigations. It is also doubtless true that there would have been cases of misuse of this law, and such instances (and many other accusations) would be more true in the case of the Muslim community in India. Consequently, the law was soon proclaimed as against minority interests, helped by the fact that the 'anti-Muslim' BJP was in power. Any party wanting to court the Muslim vote would have to adopt a policy of anti-POTA, something that the Congress party adopted, and they quickly fulfilled this pledge after they came to power.
Fast-forward a few years, and the UPA (Congress) Government is on the mat in terms of internal security; bombs go off as if the terrorists just have to pick a place and they can cause numerous explosions, the security agencies make almost public appeals that they need a stronger law, and the Congress Home Minister (Shivraj Patil) is seen as a very weak and incompetent minister. The Congress seems to have even weathered the continuous bomb blasts in Bangalore and Ahemdabad and the many other bombs found in Surat (and many other bomb blasts earlier, including Jaipur); they were criticized and the Gujarat Chief Minister embarrassed the center by getting his police to quickly arrest some of the alleged conspirators.
However, the media by now had taken to savaging the Government's political driven need not to bring in a more enhanced anti-terror law, and it were the Delhi blasts (in open places and prominent locations) that seemed to have currently broken the political will of the Government. The Congress seems to have realized that they are being taken as weak on internal security, and for the first time, the Prime Minister seems to be talking about intelligence failures and other measures:

In the wake of continuing terror attacks in the country, the UPA government has mooted a "tougher-than-Pota" law. Although the recommendation has come from the Administrative Reforms Commission, the timing of its release — when the government is struggling to shake off a "soft on terror" tag its rivals have sought to pin to it and ahead of state polls — is seen to be loaded with significance.
Implementation of the law is not going to be easy because the Congress has not just opposed Pota, it has campaigned for its repeal. It will also have to contend with allies who remain opposed to a special anti-terror law. More crucially, special terror laws have been a fraught issue evoking strong negative vibes from the minority community, which has maintained that these have been used to frame innocents.

It is very much possible that the Government is seeking to dissipate some of the current pressures on it by talking about a law, and will slowly let all this talk slide when the situation seems to come under control, and there are non-bomb related other issues that occupy the attention of the country.
The BJP also uses the refusal of the Central Congress Government to sanction a Gujarat special anti-terrorism law based on similar lines as the current Maharashtra one. The BJP argues that the Congress is doing it for political reasons, and it really does not care about the security of the country, a trap that the Congress wants to avoid as we draw near to elections.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Intelligence, Investigation, Law, Police, Security, Terrorism

The current turmoil in Jammu shows no sign of letting up. Part of the turmoil has been scripted, with the BJP and other parties such as the Shiv Sena also using this as an opportunity to demonstrate against both the State Government (previously headed by a Congress Chief Minister and now by the representative of the Central Congress Government), and against the Central Government. However, as of now, the agitation seems to have caught on a rage of its own, and the turmoil over there is threatening the peace in the region.
What is the background of this agitation ? Some time back, the State Governor (as head of the Amarnath Yatra Board) proposed that some land be transferred to the Yatra Board so as to facilitate the building of some pre-fabricated structures for the benefit of pilgrims. The conditions over there are not very easy, and building such facilities would make a lot of sense. However, once this decision was ratified by the State Government, the crisis started. There were agitations in Srinagar against this move, with many calling this a move to do some population shifts. Soon, the situation began to be seen as an anti-Hindu move, and Islamists started to take advantage, marking the resurgence of pro-Independence and pro-Pakistan slogans.
After this agitation threatened to shut down the Valley, the State Government shifted stands, and decided to reverse the transfer of land, portraying a Congress Government as again buckling down to pressure and taking a decision that was against the interest of Hindus. Historically, Jammu has always suffered in the state - Jammu and Kashmir has always been composed of 3 major regions, Jammu, Ladakh and the Valley. Jammu is hindu-majority, Ladakh is Buddhist, and the valley is muslim majority. In all these years, there has been a feeling that because of the need to keep the sensitivities of the only muslim majority state in the country, Jammu has always suffered second-grade treatment. It seems that the move to make this issue as a major issue in Jammu (and many other parts of India) is able to use this feeling.
What can be done now ? It's very tricky. The Government in its current state will not be able to again reverse itself and grant the land to the Amarnath Board, and it will do all it can to please with the BJP and the other parties to withdraw the agitation in Jammu.

Labels: Anger, BJP, Congress, Discrimination, Morality, Muslim, Politics

The BJP suffered massively in the vote of confidence for the Congress Government over the nuclear deal. In the event of a loss for the Opposition, even though the Left would lose its position from a commanding influence on policy over the past 4 years, somehow, the Left is not a party that you associate the notion of loss with. If they lose influence, they will go back to being an ineffective opposition with their 50+ MP's, with people not really caring about their position on issues; or that they at one time had a major influence on the policy of the Government of India.
On the other hand, the BJP had much more to lose. It is the main opposition party in waiting, and seemed to be ready to strike at the time when the Government was weak because of the withdrawal of the support by the Left party. The party seemed to commit a lot of effort, but was soon overtaken by Mayawati; the same story, most parties that could be with the BJP were already with it, while Mayawati, after her embrace by the UNPA and the Left, was an attractive upcoming secular power. All this having happened, the BJP had to suffer actual disaster during the election; unable to keep all its MP's with it:

Meanwhile, acting tough, the BJP on Wednesday expelled all eight party MPs who cross-voted or abstained during the confidence motion in Lok Sabha. The party also decided to launch a nationwide agitation against UPA on "corruption and degradation" of democratic values of the country. BJP said the party cannot brook indiscipline in its ranks and decided to take extreme action against those MPs who violated the whip issued by the party to vote against the UPA government in the confidence motion.
Main opposition BJP was the worst sufferer with six of its MPs voting in favour of the motion moved by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Sombhai Patel, Babubhai Katara and Brijbhushan Sharan Singh were among the BJP MPs who voted in favour of the government, while Haribhau Rathod was among the party MPs who abstained.

The BJP is not unaware of the attractions and inducements during periods in which individual MP's and MLA's count, and it is the political and organizational ability of a party to keep all its voting members with it, something in which it seems to have failed.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Deal, Defections, Politics

For the past several days, ever since the UPA Government announced that a trust vote will happen on the 22nd, there has been an incredible amount of horse-trading ongoing to secure support. Everybody knows how Amar Singh ran circles around Shri Karat of the going-into-decline Left and left it in a position whereby it now has no influence and no leverage over the policies of the Government. So, one can assume that Amar Singh did what he could to win over rival MP's, while Mulayam Singh led the effort to ensure that the MP's of the Samajwadi Party did not bolt (seeing the final result where the Congress won it fairly comfortably, one can assume that all the efforts were successful). Who is left with egg on their faces ? Both the BJP that staked a lot of its political power on this no-confidence motion, and the Left, which went from a position where it was guiding the hands of power (a remote-control if you may) to a position where it does not count for anything more for the moment.
Given the low profile that Uttar Pradesh has played in the past few years in terms of a Government at the center, it was surprising that politicians from the state played such a key role. Mayawati was like the magnet, drawing in the likes of defectors from the SP, from the Congress, pulling in Ajit Singh (will the Government now rename the Chaudhury Charan Singh Airport back to another name now that Ajit Singh did not support the Congress ?).
There were a number of people who played up to her ego, calling her a future Prime Minister. Maybe it was a combination of this ego-massaging, a feeling that she is the future, as well as a call to the Dalit community all over the country to support her that she made comments such as these:

Undeterred by the outcome of the trust vote, BSP chief Mayawati on Tuesday alleged the UPA and as well as the NDA of "conspiring" to prevent her from becoming the country's prime minister. Talking to media soon after the UPA won the trust vote in the Lok Sabha, the Uttar Pradesh CM said, "UPA's victory is not due to their policies but a well thought-out political conspiracy by both the NDA and the UPA to check the BSP and prevent the daughter of a Dalit from becoming the prime minister of the country."
Mayawati claimed that in the last week, her party has emerged as the fulcrum of national politics. "The Left also sees merit and finds that when BSP has given such good governance in the largest state of the country, it can be tried at the national level," she added. "What BSP hoped to achieve in the next 6-7 years, it has managed to do in 6-7 days," she said, referring to the UNPA and her new positioning in national politics.

These are the kind of politics that are abhorrent, that drive wedges in an already divided country. So far the BSP, for all the money-making practices of its leader, has been accepted as a platform that shows oppressed Dalits that they can also lead and have power; however, when somebody starts indulging in such negative politics, it has a major effect on their credibility.

Labels: BJP, Caste, Congress, Left, Mayawati, Morality, Politics

For some time now, many supporters and those slightly leaning towards the BJP are very troubled by the stand that the BJP has been taking towards the nuclear deal. In the beginning, there was a lot of waffling towards the deal, with Advani once urging the party to review the deal. In addition, Brajesh Mishra, seen as close to the former Prime Minister and tall leader, Atal Behari Vajpayee, has come out in open support to the deal (even though the rest of the party is shocked by his stand). For most of the middle class supporters of the deal (especially for those who care about this topic), the deal is making the best of a bad situation, and it enables closeness towards the US, something that is seen as natural to India (left leaning people will disagree, but if you leave aside the blinkers of a non-aligned world, would you rather be more friendly with the US than with say states such as Iran / Venezuela / Russia / China).
The BJP / NDA must be seeing the current separation between the Left and the Congress as a chance to bring the Government down, and then do what ? Even now, I believe that the BJP is no closer to getting to power. It will win in the states where it won the state elections, but there are vast stretches of the country where it will come a cropper, such as Uttar Pradesh where Mayawati is reigning supreme, in states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the same level of development has not happened as in Gujrat. And in the current horse-trading for getting votes in Parliament, Mayawati seems to be getting all the publicity. She is the one to whom many undecided MP's are going towards. Read this:

Sources said the saffron party is in a fix and fears of a backlash in either situation of the government winning or losing the trust vote. "NDA is nowhere in the picture. If the government loses, the credit goes to Mayawati and the Third front. If it wins then Mulayam would emerge as a winner and strategist," a leader of one of the NDA constituents said.
In the BJP camp, leaders fear that UPA losing the vote would certainly be a booster for Mayawati camp but if the government wins the trust vote, BJP would be accused by parties like BSP of conniving with the Congress to bail them out, sources added.

The BJP currently is not any closer to getting more allies to support it. What it really should do is to let the Government survive, lurch from one problem to another as it deals with having to pay back all the political debt it took onto win this vote, and let voter disenchantment with high inflation keep on getting stoked. Further, it really needs to get more time to set its house in order in the northern states, and re-activate the fames Sangh network in Uttar Pradesh. Such time would also some fissures to appear in Mayawati's support base among the forward castes.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Nuclear, Politics

Probably a major under-statement, given the events so far over the 2 separate agitations that has taken place in 2007, and 2008. Crores worth of public property has been destroyed, the railways has lost massively both because of destruction of railways lines and equipment and due to large scale cancellation of trains. Tourism in the region will take a knock (especially with the bombs of just a few weeks back in Jaipur) with advisories already having been issued and coverage of these protests in the international media; and normal people have been put to massive hardships. But, this is not the end. As long as the politics of reservation will keep on getting patronized by various Governments, they will face such kind of issues. For example, who would have believed that the North East could see such a problem:

SHILLONG: As protests of the Gujjars, who are demanding ST status, spread to fresh areas, the community living in the North-East will also take up the cudgels and launch an agitation in support of the cause.
Representatives of the community from the entire region met in Guwahati on Friday to chalk out a programme to join the protests.

There is no good solution. If the Government bows down to these demands and grants them the ST status (it makes no logic to give the Gujjar community an ST tag, the only reason is that the Jats have been granted OBC, and hence the Gujjar community sees the ST as a way to get more benefit of reservations, and hence these pressure tactics of violence). If they do get such benefits, then other communities will also want to avail of similar benefits, and this is a very slippery slope to go down. Already, both the Central and Rajasthan government have come under fire for letting the agitations causing so much disturbance.
The courts also know this, and from time to time, they have asked the Governments about whether there is plan to take empowered communities out of the net so that only the truly backward get such benefits, but any political party will find it suicidal to remove reservations for any benefit. And yet, parties continue on this policy, well knowing that any benefit is only transient, and other parties will also try to garner the same benefit. As an example of Governments trying to provide reservations even when courts have ruled against this, here is an example of the Tamil Nadu Government providing reservations on the basis of religion:

The Tamil Nadu government on Friday issued orders to "ensure" that Muslims and Christians got 3.5% reservation each in government services to overcome some 'practical problems' faced by the two communities in availing the benefit.

The Andhra Pradesh Government attempts in this regard have been periodically rejected by courts, yet here is another State Government trying the same.

Labels: BJP, Caste, Congress, Empowerment, Law, Minority, Muslim, Parliament, Politics, Railways, Reservations, Responsibility, Security

In an election result that has the potential to have an effect on the fortunes of 2 of the largest political parties in India, the hard fought Karnataka elections has seen the coming of the BJP to the cusp of power in a South Indian state. Till now the BJP has always been castigated as the party of North India, and that South India would always be out of its grasp. However, ever since the last election when the BJP became the largest political party (until the Congress merged some breakaway legislators), the BJP has always been seeing this dream as around the corner. First it agreed to support the JD(S) for half the term, and then when its turn came, it was betrayed by the same party (not something knew to the party since Mayawati has done the same to the party earlier).
There are many points that the BJP can claim with this victory:
- The claim of finally having broken into the states of South India
- Being able to beat back infighting and cashing in on a sympathy wave (so even though the BJP was part of the previous Government, it did not get tainted with any anti-incumbency wave
- Continuing in a string of victories after the morale enhancing Gujarat victory; something that is likely to keep the morale of the cadres high
- The emergence of another strong BJP leader in the form of B S Yeddyurappa who fought off all intra-party dissidence (for the time being at least)

The Congress will have to face some questions after this defeat:
- The Congress can claim that their vote share remained intact, but the fact is that all the vote shift was in favor of the BJP and the Congress was not able to capitalize on being in power in the state for the last 6 months during President's rule
- Their much vaunted winning claim of the Gandhi family took another knock, but since nobody will say this inside the party, you can be sure that all other scapegoats will be found in the form of inability of the Central Government to control inflation as well as appearing weak on the internal security angle
- Any hope that they had of trying to cross the Left party on some reforms as well as the nuclear deal will be further out of the window


The JD(S) has had a massive reduction in its seats, and corresponding credibility on the political scene.

However, not everything is rosy for the BJP. They will be ruling with a razor thin majority, and any strong dissidence is bound to cause problems. In addition, the BJP over-promised in terms of free power, easier loans, lower price food, etc, and will have to arrange for funds to pay for all this. It also needs to show a better mode of governance.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Election, Politics

India has always had a problem regarding Bangladeshi immigrants, including about deciding what to do with them. In the states neighboring Bangladesh, particularly Assam, this has caused major problems including a long agitation against their presence. The increasing influx of these immigrants has also caused changes to the demography of many districts in these states. Even if they are immigrating for the purpose of economic betterment, no country can accept an unprecedented influx of outsiders, and for a long time, the security agencies have been claiming that they are a security problem as well. Bangladesh has active terrorist bases inside it, and many of recent blasts in India have been blamed on these groups by the police and intelligence agencies.
In addition, the intelligence agencies believe that these migrants are susceptible to being picked up the terrorist groups and made active members who will connive at planning for blasts, being members of active terrorist cells as well as providing support as sleepers. Over a period of time, various courts (including the Supreme Court) and even the Central Government appointed Governors have asked for a policy to urgently identify these immigrants and deport them back to Bangladesh.
The only problem in all this mixture is the Congress which is actively playing with the security of the country; it believes that these immigrants are a natural support base and hence the Congress does all it can to prevent them from being deported, and actually local leaders will help in getting them Government papers such as rations cards, voter identity cards and so on.
In the latest such indication, the practically useless and ineffective home minister, Shivraj Patil, is getting into blatant lying, claiming something that official letters sent by his ministry say otherwise:

While Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil on Monday termed Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s revelation about the Centre’s controversial suggestion to states to set up detention centres for illegal Bangladeshi immigrants as “not true”, official records obtained by The Indian Express contradict his claims.
Minutes of the meetings of the Nodal Authority, under the chairmanship of Union Home Secretary on January 24, 2007 and April 25, 2007, to review the progress of detection and deportation of illegal Bangladeshi migrants, clearly show that the Centre wanted the states to set up detention centers for illegal immigrants.
In the April 25 meeting that year, the Union Home Secretary had even told the participants that the “primary objectives” of the deportation exercise was to effectively control illegal immigration “by instilling a sense of fear and insecurity” in their minds. Raje said today: “It is very clear from the communication sent by the Ministry of Home Affairs in February, March and May 2007 that there was a conscious decision of the Union Home Ministry that state governments are required to set up detention centers for illegally staying foreigners pending their deportation.”

Right now, the Congress wants to distance itself from any such communication that it actually asked for deportation of Bangladeshi migrants, since this could have an impact on its vote base; while the priority should be to do whatever it needs to enhance the security of the country; the Prime Minister, as the head of this Government, is literally responsible for playing with the security of the country for electoral gains.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Court, Election, Governance, India, Law, Muslim, Politics, Security, Terrorism

Well, the real name of the amendment brought in by the Government at the urging of the DMK Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss was actually the AIIMS Amendment Act; it should have been called the anti-Venugopal Act since though the law fixed the upper age of retirement of the AIIMS Director to be 65, based on which the noted heart surgeon had to resign. However, since Parliament, in a new low for the Government, actually spent time in passing a law that was directed specifically at one person; it was very easily challenged in court as being discriminatory and meant only to retire him. Venugopal challenged the Act, and even during the initial discussions, the SC had some strong words to say to the Government.

The Central Government on Thursday received a major setback with the Supreme Court striking down the law that enabled premature retirement of noted cardiologist P Venugopal as the Director of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) after a raging row with Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss.

The net effect of the Supreme Court action has been that the health minister has suffered a severe reversal in his battle with the AIIMS Director. And of course, questions must be asked of the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, this was after all the Bill of his Government and the Government has suffered the setback.
In other steps, the Health Minister has lead a campaign against drinking and smoking, and he is justified to that extent since these 2 are a cause of a large number of casualties. However, there are far more severe problems that the Minister and the Government don't seem too enthusiastic to tackle, since they are not glamorous. Take a look at this cover page article of TIME magazine that blows a hole in the quality of India's health services:

It's not hard to find people caught in the gap between India's dreams of greatness and the awful reality of its broken health system. Most of the country lives there. Sixty years after independence, India remains one of the unhealthiest places on earth. Millions of people still suffer from diseases and ailments that simply no longer exist almost anywhere else on the planet. Four out of five children are anemic. Almost one in four women who give birth receives no antenatal care.
The truth behind the glossy advertising is less incredible: India remains the sick man of Asia, malnourished and obese at the same time, beset by epidemics of AIDS and diabetes, and with spending levels on public health that even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has conceded "are seriously lagging behind other developing countries in Asia." The sorry state of India's medical services might not matter so much if tens of millions of Indians weren't already so sick.

I would advise people to read the whole article, it is is no way complimentary and displays a state of health that a lot of us, who now depend on the private health care system, don't know about and don't care. And in the midst of this, we have successive Governments who care about things that make political logic; trying to spend the long time and effort to overhaul a broken health care system does not matter anymore.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Court, Development, Health, Medical, Policy, Reform, Responsibility, Welfare

The Women's Reservation Bill is something that has been debated on and off for over a decade now, and no Government has been able to bring in this law due to the immense controversy over this issue. The BJP was unable to do so, and this Congress / UPA Government has not been able to do so. Each time, this is because of the blocking by the various OBC groups who are suspicious of the motivations behind bringing such a bill. They believe that the splintering of the electorate along caste lines is going to be moved back by such a law if it does not also have relevant reservations for OBC's and Muslims. In addition, the belief is that upper caste women will capture a large chunk of the seats under such a Bill.
I am ambivalent of most reservations since I believe that the proper strategy of bringing about change is to make more facilities, education, etc. available rather than reserve some of them for somebody who does not have the skill set needed for the seat / job for which the reservations is sought. The only exception that I can think of is the case of politics where I have not been able to understand the type of talent required (if any is required); and hence maybe reserving electoral seats for women may be permissible - anyhow, in a lot of cases, winning or losing depends on the party rather than the individual.
But the issue in this case is that the leading lights of this coalition, Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi, the left parties (including Brinda Karat), as well as the main opposition, the BJP, all support such a Bill in public. Together, they are far more than the numbers required to pass such a bill, but no one is willing to take on the caste based political parties - they can be very strident in their opposition, and can easily threaten when necessary. So, the Government played a gambit by bringing the Bill in the Rajya Sabha when the Lok Sabha had already been progued, and when it was assured that the Bill would not get anywhere closer to becoming a law, but even that has brought out the opposition:

The women's reservation bill has triggered an OBC consolidation across party lines, threatening to strain political tie-ups and raising the prospect of realignment. The protests against the introduction of the bill in the Rajya Sabha, which saw RJD members joining hands with arch-rivals JD(U) and SP, extended outside Parliament with members of the OBC dominated outfits holding a meeting to scale up the resistance.
While the legislation has provided an impetus to normalization of ties between Yadav satraps Mulayam Singh and Lalu Prasad, it is proving to be the catalyst for the coming together of the Mandal forces more than a decade after they splintered, moving in separate ways. The resentment against the bill has the potential to introduce tension among allies such as Congress and RJD on the one hand and BJP and JD(U) on the other, besides becoming a point of discord between SP and Left.

One can be sure that neither the Left nor the Congress will move ahead with this Bill, given the vehement opposition - further, the Congress is no longer the leading party in many states, and it needs to maintain good relations with many of these parties, and it may be easier to let the Bill die a death rather than risk rupturing ties.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Empowerment, Law, Politics, Protest, Support, Women

That's a joke. The Congress made a decision many months ago that it cannot afford to let the Government fall, and in the face of the open threats by the left parties, after an initial show of resistance, the Government backed down. In the face of reports over the last few months, it is clear that the allies refused to consider going ahead with the deal if the Left dropped support, and the Congress leadership itself did not see the deal as something that would win it an election, and hence, for political reasons, the deal was declared dead.
The Government had also told the United States (where the President as well as the Indian American community had spent considerable effort in pushing for the deal) that the deal was off, and in the current circumstances, there is no way the deal looked set to go. With all this settled, one wonders as to why the Government is still resorting to this regular drama of the UPA-Left coordination committee:

The UPA-Left committee on the Indo-US nuclear deal would meet here on Tuesday with the Left parties, providing outside support to the Congress-led ministry, sticking to their guns and the government saying it would seek the sense of Parliament on the matter.
"We will consider what the government will report to us on its talks with the IAEA. On that basis, we will take the issue forward," a senior Left leader said when asked about the stand they would take at the upcoming meeting. Asserting that the Left opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal continued, he said the government was committed to consider the findings of this committee while taking the next step on the nuclear deal.

The last such meeting took place on March 17, more than a month and a half back, and there does not seem to be anything that would make the Left change its stand. Even though the deal has been supported by strategic observers and by nuclear observers, and most international countries consider this a sweet deal for India, both the Left and the BJP are opposed to the deal and there does not seem to be a way forward. It is better for the Government to stop this drama.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Development, Left, Nuclear, Politics, Security