The modern thinking Indian

The nuclear ambitions of Iran well known, and the attempts by some of the significant world powers to stop these nuclear efforts (mostly in a futile effort) are also well known by now. Iran has most likely done the calculation that it will be able to pursue its nuclear quest through a measure of playing one country against another along with a dogged determination to go the full path. Further, given the difficult power structure of Iran where the Supreme Leader and the President both represent power centers, it is hard to figure out who is fully in command (although it is believed that in any decision making, the Supreme Leader will prevail; but the recent political chaos also showed that the President has cultivated the Revolutionary Guards and the military to get more power). Iran also believes that the only way for it to project itself as the natural leader of the region is to get nuclear weapons (especially since its given enemy, Israel, has nuclear weapons and advanced delivery systems). Iran also stands alone politically in the region (except for Iraq), since the other countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, etc, all are more or less against Iran (they are all Sunni countries while Iran is a Shia dominated country).
And yet, the countries interacting with Iran over its nuclear stance (primarily the countries in the UN Security Council) are unable to make a decision on how to proceed. Iran has always had the stance that it is using nuclear energy for purposes of generating an alternative to fossil fuels for electricity, a stand that other countries refuse to buy, and yet this must be one of the longest running attempts to have a discussion (link to article):

The U.S. and European Union called for a meeting with Iran to discuss stalled nuclear talks, brushing aside the Persian Gulf country’s failure to mention the dispute over its atomic program in a proposal for negotiations. The EU request for a meeting came in response to the Iranian plan to tie any discussion of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East to talks on the future of the Palestinian people and changes in the structure of the United Nations Security Council.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki presented a five-page document to China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K. and U.S. in Tehran on Sept. 9. The proposals are a response to Western concern about the atomic work, said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who denies allegations by the U.S. and major allies that Iran’s nuclear-power development is cover for the production of weapons. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told worshippers in Tehran yesterday that Iran must “stand firm” in the nuclear dispute, saying it has the right to the technology, Agence France-Presse reported.

The members of the Security Council and the EU have not been able to come to an agreement about how to deal with Iran, given that Russia and China have not agreed with the western position. And of course, there is widespread problems even in the US, and the EU about trying to move ahead with a military and hard decision. For India, having another unstable nuclear armed nation in the neighborhood is something that needs to be avoided at all costs.

Labels: Bomb, China, EU, Fight, Iran, Nuclear, Russia, US

In a landmark deal that broke many facets of the international nuclear embargo on NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) non-signatory nations, the US has finally signed a nuclear deal with India. This has been among the most heated and debated agreements in recent times. Part of a mission to make US-India ties closer, and to relax some of the restrictions on India in the nuclear area, the deal took a lot of diplomatic effort to get through, and the final legal step of the deal was signed in by President Bush. This last step was not necessary for India to go ahead with nuclear deals with other nations, but in light of the recent efforts by the US administration to push the deal, the Indian side decided to wait for the US Congress approval.

US President George W Bush has signed into law a nuclear deal with India, which ends a three-decade ban on US nuclear trade with Delhi. The landmark agreement was approved by the US Congress nearly a week ago. The deal will give India access to US civilian nuclear technology and fuel in return for inspections of its civilian, but not military, nuclear facilities.
India says the accord is vital to meet its rising energy needs. Critics say it creates a dangerous precedent. They say it effectively allows India to expand its nuclear power industry without requiring it to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as other nations must. The US restricted nuclear co-operation with India after it tested a nuclear weapon in 1974.

The Indian side faced tremendous challenges in getting this deal through. The process was started by a discussion with the BJP ruled Indian Government and the Bush Administration, and was then negotiated by the Congress Government with the US Administration a couple of years back. The Indian Government was a minority Government, and dependent on the Communist Parties and many other parties. The Communist Parties, although against the nuclear policies of the Indian Government, have always despised a closer relationship with the United States and refused to flatly support such a policy, warning of a end to the Government (and since the Government was in a minority, an end seemed quite natural if their support ended).
For a long time, it seemed that the Government had given up, after all the nuclear deal was not a vote-winner, the deal also seemed to be against the interests of the Muslim minority vote that the Congress wants, and so on. And then, after many months, Dr. Manmohan Singh finally decided that enough is enough; he literally forced the Government to agree to his stand that they back the deal; to the extent that manipulations were allowed in order to make sure that the Government retained a majority in Parliament.
Getting the deal through the Nuclear Suppliers Group was another difficult task. There were many nations wedded to the cause of denial of technology to anybody who had not signed upto the NPT, and it required intensive effort by the US to get the group to agree. China in the end tried to prod other nations, but the US pressure (and a small amount of Indian pressure) was enough to get the member to eventually agree, even though it was totally under pressure.
The United States also had to face opposition internally, both within the Administration, and outside in the strategic community; people were reluctant to approve any exemptions to the NPT; thought was that this gave India the right to use its uranium resources to push its military weapons program; also that this gave the wrong signal to others such as Iran and Pakistan.
Overall, this deal will provide a vast impetus to the nuclear energy commercial business; with India planning a large number of reactors to meet a portion of its energy needs, a number of companies worldwide will benefit.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Energy, India, Nuclear, Politics, US

For some time now, many supporters and those slightly leaning towards the BJP are very troubled by the stand that the BJP has been taking towards the nuclear deal. In the beginning, there was a lot of waffling towards the deal, with Advani once urging the party to review the deal. In addition, Brajesh Mishra, seen as close to the former Prime Minister and tall leader, Atal Behari Vajpayee, has come out in open support to the deal (even though the rest of the party is shocked by his stand). For most of the middle class supporters of the deal (especially for those who care about this topic), the deal is making the best of a bad situation, and it enables closeness towards the US, something that is seen as natural to India (left leaning people will disagree, but if you leave aside the blinkers of a non-aligned world, would you rather be more friendly with the US than with say states such as Iran / Venezuela / Russia / China).
The BJP / NDA must be seeing the current separation between the Left and the Congress as a chance to bring the Government down, and then do what ? Even now, I believe that the BJP is no closer to getting to power. It will win in the states where it won the state elections, but there are vast stretches of the country where it will come a cropper, such as Uttar Pradesh where Mayawati is reigning supreme, in states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the same level of development has not happened as in Gujrat. And in the current horse-trading for getting votes in Parliament, Mayawati seems to be getting all the publicity. She is the one to whom many undecided MP's are going towards. Read this:

Sources said the saffron party is in a fix and fears of a backlash in either situation of the government winning or losing the trust vote. "NDA is nowhere in the picture. If the government loses, the credit goes to Mayawati and the Third front. If it wins then Mulayam would emerge as a winner and strategist," a leader of one of the NDA constituents said.
In the BJP camp, leaders fear that UPA losing the vote would certainly be a booster for Mayawati camp but if the government wins the trust vote, BJP would be accused by parties like BSP of conniving with the Congress to bail them out, sources added.

The BJP currently is not any closer to getting more allies to support it. What it really should do is to let the Government survive, lurch from one problem to another as it deals with having to pay back all the political debt it took onto win this vote, and let voter disenchantment with high inflation keep on getting stoked. Further, it really needs to get more time to set its house in order in the northern states, and re-activate the fames Sangh network in Uttar Pradesh. Such time would also some fissures to appear in Mayawati's support base among the forward castes.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Nuclear, Politics

The Left has always modeled itself on its adherence to political probity, and to good norms (in the process considering itself the party with the highest morals); of course it is another matter that people who cannot stand the policies of the Left (and its pandering to an out-dated economic model and to its adherence to a blind model of secularism (you just have to remember their threatening the Samajwadi Party with the loss of the Muslim vote if it supported the Congress) consider it the most morally bankrupt party. And of course, its dictatorial and violent ways in Bengal shows up its true nature. But this particular example takes the cake.
In the Indian system of parliamentary democracy, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha is seen to be an impartial judge, and even though a lot of politics go into the election of the Speaker, once in, the speaker is seen as the most unbiased political person, and specially not supporting the policies of the party from which he was elected. Many speakers in the past have tried to adhere to this policy (and some have succeeded to some degree). The current speaker, Somnath Chaterjee, has always claimed that he is now not a Left party member, but the speaker, the person who no longer will profess any political beliefs.
So, how come such a situation has come to pass that the speaker is being told by Comrade Karat that he is now a Left party member and should withdraw from the post of the speaker. This is crass bad political behavior, trying to force a person to resign who is supposed to be now above political beliefs:

Despite the pressure mounted on him by the CPM leadership to resign his post immediately, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee remains defiant as he questioned their very decision to go along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). An angry Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) general secretary Prakash Karat, according to party sources, has asked Politburo member Sitaram Yechury to convince Chatterjee about quitting the Speaker's post, which was the result of an understanding that the Left had with the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) when it decided to prop it up in 2004.
However, Chatterjee, who has had meetings with Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Petroleum Minister Murli Deora during the last two days, is insisting he would give up his Lok Sabha membership also if he had to quit the Speaker's post. The Speaker is believed to have told the CPM leadership that he would not be in a position to vote against the UPA in the Lok Sabha. Chatterjee, who will be 79 on July 25, is also arguing that such a move would cast a shadow on the Speaker's office as it is supposed to be above party politics.

Somehow, in this case, one does not think that it is the loss of the chair that is worrying Chaterjee as much as the fact that suddenly he is being forced to resign to support a cause for which he was not consulted.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Morality, Nuclear, Parliament, Politics

Who would have believed that something like this could happen even a month back ? When last year the Prime Minister had declared that his (actually, the Congress party of Sonia Gandhi) was not a one-issue Government, it was taken for granted that with the Left putting a veto on the nuclear deal, and with the allies unwilling to sacrifice the Government for a nuclear deal, the nuclear deal was as good as dead. And even recently, when the Government again raised the issue, it seemed like with the Left unwilling to back down, the deal would not happen, and the entire issue would be political posturing.
And then, suddenly, like a Jack in the Box suddenly popping out, the Congress and the Prime Minister appear to have outsmarted the Left. With the Left even otherwise not leaving a chance to criticize the Government over many issues, the Government must have been chafing at the tone used by the Left (the Congress, even in a coalition Government is never really tolerant of the people providing support). And the political movement by the Congress and the Samajwadi Party must have surprised the CPM and their other left brothers the maximum. They have been so used to being able to turn the heat on the Government that even the slightest hint of alternate support from the SP will be enough to make the Congress stand up and look the left in the eye.
And this is what precisely seems to have happened. The Congress will appreciate the support provided by the 39 MP's of the SP (vs. the 59 MP's of the Left); at the same time, the SP is in a bad state in its home state of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati's political stars look to be continually on the rise, and the SP really needs an alliance to prevent the split of its votes. And one has to admire its political cunning - in order to avoid the charge of being anti-Muslim and get a reason for changing its stand to a nuclear-deal supporter, it used a meeting with APJ Kalam to showcase as a reason for changing its stand. He is a former President and a missile man, so his support is important to justify a change in stand, and he is a middle class and educated Muslim icon, so this will help mollify its Muslim base.
Where does this leave the Left ? It has an alltime high of 59 MP's, but Kerala is famous for changing its political mind quickly, and the Left suffered some major reversals in West Bengal local elections, thus ensuring that early next elections could see a much reduced Left MP count. Even now, it could almost seem like that they are no longer relevant.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Muslim, Nuclear, Reform

This is surely something that must be scaring the Congress chief (Sonia Gandhi, not Manmohan Singh). The same Prime Minister who last August backed down after initially acting like a lion (remember the statement - 'this is not a one issue Government' ?) is now suddenly passing out signals that he wants the nuclear deal to be done, and is willing to sacrifice the support of the left.
Sonia Gandhi must be scared out of her wits - her compliant Prime Minister is suddenly displaying a spine, her reluctant allies (the ever pressurizing left) are threatening that they will have a team outside Rashtrapati Bhavan to give the withdrawal letter to the President if the Government states its intention to go ahead with the nuclear deal, inflation is out of control and threatens to remain so, farmers are protesting in many states because of the fertilizer snafu, the other allies (NCP, DMK, RJD, etc) are all potential allies of the Left and hence not particularly eager to buck the support of the Left and go in for maybe possible early elections where they will also get tagged with the inflation and bad governance tag, and the Congress is losing states left right and center, ceding many of them to the BJP.
This particular issue comes as a surprise to most political observers; after all, the nuclear deal had more or less died out as an issue that the Congress would bother to pick up a fight for - it does not have electoral appeal, most people in the country would not bother to base their voting pattern over such a deal, and the left would have painted proponents of such a deal as being very aligned to the US (not a very appealing prospect to most parties who believe that this would put off the Muslim vote - not a done deal, but most parties believe that this is the likely case). It was only strategic observers who bemoaned the loss that the country was facing over the failure of such a deal (and the fact that such a deal was not something that India's neighboring countries were happy over). There were weaknesses in such a deal, but the fact is that unless India were to steal advanced technology, this deal is about as good a deal as it got (and that too because Washington has its own motives behind such a deal, including the advantages that its own nuclear plant firms would get).
So now what happens ? I would suspect that eventually the Prime Minister will back down; they have already done so many rollbacks because of the pressure of the Left that maybe they have lost the guts and sight to see that the Left would face a bad time if elections were held now. The Left faces pressure because of the Nandigram incident, and Kerala is ripe for a movement of the electorate to the Congress (because the Left Government in Kerala has not exactly been an epitome of good governance); further, if the Left withdraws support now, and the BJP comes to power, then the left loses whatsoever influence it has over the policies of the country.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Governance, Left, Nuclear

That's a joke. The Congress made a decision many months ago that it cannot afford to let the Government fall, and in the face of the open threats by the left parties, after an initial show of resistance, the Government backed down. In the face of reports over the last few months, it is clear that the allies refused to consider going ahead with the deal if the Left dropped support, and the Congress leadership itself did not see the deal as something that would win it an election, and hence, for political reasons, the deal was declared dead.
The Government had also told the United States (where the President as well as the Indian American community had spent considerable effort in pushing for the deal) that the deal was off, and in the current circumstances, there is no way the deal looked set to go. With all this settled, one wonders as to why the Government is still resorting to this regular drama of the UPA-Left coordination committee:

The UPA-Left committee on the Indo-US nuclear deal would meet here on Tuesday with the Left parties, providing outside support to the Congress-led ministry, sticking to their guns and the government saying it would seek the sense of Parliament on the matter.
"We will consider what the government will report to us on its talks with the IAEA. On that basis, we will take the issue forward," a senior Left leader said when asked about the stand they would take at the upcoming meeting. Asserting that the Left opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal continued, he said the government was committed to consider the findings of this committee while taking the next step on the nuclear deal.

The last such meeting took place on March 17, more than a month and a half back, and there does not seem to be anything that would make the Left change its stand. Even though the deal has been supported by strategic observers and by nuclear observers, and most international countries consider this a sweet deal for India, both the Left and the BJP are opposed to the deal and there does not seem to be a way forward. It is better for the Government to stop this drama.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Development, Left, Nuclear, Politics, Security

It's still too early to figure out what the full extent of the nuclear deal getting canceled is going to be, but the common consensus is that it is going to lead to a lowering of the country's credibility and status (although that would only be short term - the growth in the economy is still driving India's new found strength and attractiveness). So, while negotiating, the Indian side would have taken the position that such a deal does not need to be passed in Parliament, the Union Cabinet is empowered to approve such deals. In addition, the Indian Government had met with a number of other Governments that were on the Nuclear Suppliers Group (some of whom were Uranium exporters) in trying to work out potential contracts.
However, it was not just the Indian Government that went to bat for this deal. The Bush administration did a fair amount of pushing and using influence to move this deal forward, assisted by the Indian-American community that used its influence with Members of Congress (from both the Democratic and Republican side) and also pushed by many industries that would have benefited from such a opening up of the Indian civilian nuclear industry.
Another byproduct of the deal was the proposed relaxation of Uranium exporting conditions. Previously, India would not be able to get Uranium fuel from most of the major exporting nations because of the restrictions; under the new deal, the market had a much better chance of being open to India. Well, that does not seem likely now. Refer to this article:

With India virtually putting on hold its civilian nuclear deal with US, Australia has decided to review its plans to sell uranium to New Delhi.
Lowy Institute international security director Rory Medcalf said there was "no way" he could see Australia selling uranium to India "unless the US-India deal is finalised".

So, India is again going to be back on the restricted list for getting Uranium from outside, and with China in the race for buying a lot of the Uranium available for sale, India's nuclear program has to again depend on internal sources. Well, there's no getting away from the impact of moving away from the deal.

Labels: Congress, Image, India, Left, Nuclear

One can call it the success of coalition politics. After all, when you are running a coalition Government, then you have to listen to your partners and sometimes take decisions that appeal to them. The Congress used to be a proud party that at one time had more than 400 Members of Parliament, but now it survives at the mercy of a host of coalition partners and outside supporters. So, the Congress has had to cancel its decisions to sell off stake in companies such as Neyveli Lignites, and other companies due to the pressure from allies. It had to agree to subvert the political system when a friend of the holiest of the holies (Quattrochi) was in the line of fire, it had to agree to block the prosecution of Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mayawati (who declares massive assets of over Rs. 50 crores), it had to look the other way when the DMK Government refused to obey the Supreme Court, it had to bend the CBI so as to get Shibu Soren acquitted by the High Court, and so on.
But the nuclear deal must have been the biggest bending of the back that the Congress has ever done. Over a period of 2 years (and it must have been updating its allies on the progress), the Congress Government has been negotiating a deal with the United States that would remove a large number of the restrictions on nuclear dealings with India. Now, we all know that the Indian civilian nuclear program has done a great deal in the face of technology cut-off, but realistically the Indian energy generation from the nuclear area has been much slower than expected and has failed to meet its targets in the past (otherwise why would we be buying nuclear reactors from Russia). Our energy needs are such that we have to be this world in our policies, and no longer stand on the 'we can do everything' stand.
Like any deal, no party can ever come out of a deal like this with having got everything it wanted. One measure of how good a deal is about whether people are satisfied or dis-satisfied. A deal that fails to get the support of the Indian left and the nuclear-ayatollahs of the US State Department is intrinsically a good deal :-). On a serious note, there are a number of strategic experts who are happy with the deal, and my own take on the deal is that this is a good effort. In an ideal world, we should have exploded a device in the 1960's and got to be a member of the nuclear-capable club, but no use crying over spilt milk.
The bigger problem with the apparent Government and Congress capitulation to the Left over the nuclear deal is that the credibility of the Government is shot. If, when the deal was announced and the Left had laid down the line of 'over our dead body', and the Government had backed off at that point, it would still have been good. The deal was a complex deal, and there was little understanding of the deal. Instead, the Government spent so much time over explaining how the deal would be good, got the nuclear experts to vouch for the deal, got a lot of strategic security experts to favor the deal, and got the middle class involved in the deal with the talk of a closer understanding with the US and the promise of removal of many of the dual-use restrictions. It even got the allies to speak in the same way. And then the ultimate, with the 2 divinities, Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi both daring the Left to withdraw support.
Maybe the expectation was that the left would back off this strong show of opposition, and maybe there was a wrong thought that this was play-acting by the Left so that their constituency was mollified. But from all the discussion, it would be clear that rather than the nuclear deal, it was the implied much closer relationship with the US that was abhorrent to the Left, and the feeling was so strong that they would be willing to let the Congress Government fall. In addition, the allies, having anticipated that the fall of the Government and the elections might impact them negatively, also pushed back. And so we had the extraordinary spectacle that the PM and the Party President in one day moved back and admitted that the deal was dead, and so was the credibility of Manmohan Singh.
This is also the death of Manmohan Singh the technocrat, the man with the non-politician touch. He laid his reputation on the line on this issue with personal comments, and having to step back must have hurt. One thing is for sure, the author of this piece will no longer treat Manmohan Singh as being different from the other politicians.

Labels: Congress, Development, Image, India, Left, Nuclear, Reform

For some time now, it seemed like the internal dispute within the CPM over the nuclear deal was preventing the left from carrying out the ultimatum to the Congress Government. It was quite clear that there was a lobby within the West Bengal unit (which had both the Chief Minster and Jyoti Basu) speak up for nuclear energy and even proclaim that relations with the US were important for the country; as opposed to the push by the politburo and Prakash Karat for a no-holds barred line against the nuclear deal even if it means bringing down the Government. And when pushed to whether this means that the left is agreeable to the BJP coming back to power if the Government falls, the left states that it treats both the BJP and US imperialism on the same level. At the same time, all the public comments by the Congress are that it will not favor going back and will push for the deal. Maybe they feel that if they go back, they will have no face left and will be pushed by the left again and again over other issues as well.

Poll clouds seem to have darkened further with CPM veteran Jyoti Basu on Saturday ruling out the possibility of any compromise on Left opposition to the US-India nuclear deal. Endorsement of the hard line on the deal is likely to quicken poll calculations of the UPA as the Left axe begins to descend on the Manmohan Singh government.
As reported by TOI on Saturday, Marxists are thinking in terms of withdrawing support if their threat against holding negotiations with IAEA goes unheeded. The deliberations in Kolkata indicated that CPM general secretary Prakash Karat's hard line had prevailed, and will strip the UPA-Left committee on the nuclear deal of even the token relevance it has. "The committee will continue as long as it is allowed to," a senior Congress source said.

At the same time, recent comments by various US officials had indicated that the time needed for the deal was reducing and various Indian ministers had indicated that they were committed to the deal going through. In addition, the Congress seems to be moving into election mode (and so are other parties). Seems like the time is over, unless the CPM is playing a massive bluff and bluster card.

Labels: Congress, Election, India, Left, Nuclear, Politics

It would seem that the debate within the Communist party (CPM) over the issue of withdrawing support over the nuclear issue is continuing, and is not a done deal. Initially, there were just plain suspicions that there would be tension between the West Bengal unit of the CPM and the central Politburo; there were unnamed sources in the West Bengal unit who claimed that the attitude of the central leadership was not comfortable to the West Bengal unit. They are in a state which needs to rapidly develop, it's people are looking for development and they have already faced a mini-revolt over the issue of earlier land acquisition for development, with Mamta Banerjee leading the protest.
As the tension between the Left and the Congress escalated, and the Congress got support from its other allies, there must have been a lot of thought going into the West Bengal leadership about what this means for the state. For many of their measures, such as rural electrification, industrialization and SEZ's, they need to have a friendly centre. In a small indicator of what a uncooperative center can mean, the West Bengal Government faced problems regarding getting funds for rural electrification. And of course, a Congress aligning with Mamta Banerjee is the worst nightmare for the Left (and by Left, I primarily mean the CPM, since the CPI, RSP and Forward Bloc don't seem to care all too much).
But now, it seems that the state unit is either unable to make its wishes clear internally or is sending out signals to the Congress that a condition of irreversability has not been reached. So, first the powerful Chief Minister, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee made an interview where he said that nuclear energy is useful, and then the 'wise' old statesman of the Left, Jyoti Basu essentially claimed that the deal was a useful deal and meant nuclear energy. For some time now, the likes of Prakash Karat have been rolling the nuclear deal to mean India being a US vassal, a strategic ally, and that since the deal is with the US which is anathema for the Left, it should be reversed.

"The Indo-US nuclear deal is for nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is necessary and there is a need for nuclear power plants. With new industries mushrooming, the demand for power will increase," Basu told reporters after the party's state secretariat meeting here.
He also expressed hope that the conflict between Left parties and the UPA government over the Indo-US nuclear deal would ease after the CPM's politburo and central committee meetings here. "CPI-M's Politburo and central committee would meet in Kolkata from September 28 to October 1, which will be followed by a joint meeting of the UPA-Left committee on the nuclear deal. There could be some easing off of the situation," he said.

These are pretty large statements, and one wonders as to exactly what this means. Could it really mean that the West Bengal leadership has managed to get a reversal of the overall situation and that the left will keep on making a hue and cry, but will not pull out ? Seems a bit unlikely, but stranger things have happened. However, if that happens, it will be a severe setback for Prakash Karat, and will demonstrate that elected politicians are the ones who wield power.

Labels: Congress, Left, Nuclear, Politics, Responsibility

There is hope for the Congress Government as yet. It currently seems to be between a rock and a hard place; if they back down from the nuclear deal under Left pressure, then the Government will have a serious loss of face with future agreements being disputed and maybe rolled back under other such pressures. In addition, internationally the Primer Minister will have a monumental loss of face in the sense that a Treaty, negotiated for a period of 2 years and seemingly which meets the needs of the Government is being held up. In addition, it will tell the Left that the Government will eventually give in with the right amount of pressure. On the other hand, if the Government does decide to go ahead with the nuclear deal, it is very likely that the Left will carry out its threat to withdraw support and leave the Government in a very fragile political environment.
And maybe not. The CPM is divided into 2 sections, with a section representing the central leadership, people in the politburo who don't face Lok Sabha elections (most likely because they would not get elected given their stands on various issues) and the Governments in West Bengal and Kerala who have to face public pressure and ensure that they are seen on the side of development. So far, it has been under-stated that there are differences of opinion between the Central and State leadership, but they have mostly papered over.
However, it seems like the dam is opening up; the collapse of the Central Government will have a major ripple effect on West Bengal (a state that the Communist parties just cannot cannot afford to lose given their 30 year old grip on the state). Currently the Government is seen as pliable, and the opposition in West Bengal is seen as divided; but if the Central Government starts to act tough and aligns with Manta Banerjee in the state, it would give the CPM a strong sense of worry (especially because it is starting to see how development, even though necessary has its own pain). So, maybe some amount of realism from the state side is pushing the West Bengal Chief Minister to make this statement regarding the need for nuclear energy:

West Bengal CM Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee created a flutter on Monday by stressing the importance of nuclear power at a time when his party, CPM, is locked in a battle with the Centre over the Indo-US nuclear deal and party bigwigs, like politburo member Sitaram Yechury, are publicly arguing that nuclear power isn't critical and perhaps not even desirable.
Within hours of the CM's remarks, his comrades in Delhi went on an overdrive to paper over the apparent difference between two senior politburo members - Bhattacharjee and Yechury - on nuclear power.

The Chief Minister of Bengal is no paper-weight, he is the leader of the major state for the Left parties and if he starts pushing his weight, he can cause a major disturbance in the current stand of the Left party.

Labels: Congress, Development, Image, India, Left, Minority, Nuclear, Politics

It has been fairly surprising to see the statements by the BJP over the nuclear deal when it was announced. If you refer to my previous post, it would seem that the BJP, for the sake of being in opposition, was going against a deal that it would have supported in all cases if it was in power.

If you consider the deal in all its points, there are many positive factors for the deal from the perspectives of the BJP such as
1. Closer engagement with the US,
2. Access to more dual-use technology that was restricted in the past,
3. Agreement by a number of experts in the nuclear field and strategic fields that this deal seems to be a good one,
4. Deal seems to be more in tune with what the middle class in this country wants,
5. Agreement with the Indian-American community that wants a closer relationship between the US and India
All these are factors that are valued by the support base of the US, and one would have expected the BJP to try to claim credit for the nuclear deal by claiming that the deal was following the path set by it.

Some of the negatives in the BJP opposition flow from the same points as above:
1. Seems to be more closely aligned with what the Communists want, and if the BJP desires one thing, it is not to be grouped with the communist parties
2. Disonance among believers as to why the party is opposing the deal (even after it seems that a number of national security experts are fine with the deal)
These factors would have caused a great disillusionment in the support camp of the BJP, and was difficult to understand.

Well, looks like Advani wanted to get the BJP stand back to where it would have made more sense, whereby the BJP would not be seen as opposing the deal and yet make a few noises about caring for national security. Refer this article:

Advani had told The Indian Express on Sunday that “there is no problem with the 123 agreement”, if the Government addressed the concerns of the party through amendments in Indian domestic laws. Advani’s statement has created a flutter in the party, as many leaders who were uncomfortable with the original positioning that closely aligned the party with the Left and regional outfits found encouragement to push for amends.
Advani will lead the parliamentary debate for the BJP and is expected to outline the possible amendments in Indian laws that could reassure the party that India’s right to test is protected and fuel supply for India’s nuclear power projects will not be disrupted. He will also elaborate on his party’s attitude towards the US.

This looks like a quick turnaround so as to reassure the constituency of the BJP that the party has not suddenly gone into a tailspin. Hopefully with this, the BJP will play a supportive role for this deal.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Image, Left, Nuclear, Politics

I have been a supporter of the BJP for most of my adult life, and I can right now visualize that this is unlikely to continue if the party continues to act like it has been doing. When it was in power, and doing good, it was still difficult to condone the violent and threatening doings of the zealots of the VHP and Bajrang Dal, but somehow one accepted this. And then came the riots of Gujarat that were a big shock; never in my dreams would I have believed that the party could condone riots that killed thousands of Indian citizens.
But the BJP has always seemed to be the natural choice for citizens of many urban areas, propounding policies that seem to be nationalistic and more liberal than the policies of the Congress and other emerging parties. However, in the recent past, they seem to be going down the path of destruction.
First, their fight in the game for the Presidential election was an unnecessary fight. The UPA always had a higher number of votes, and most of the others would not have supported the NDA choice because the return was not good enough, and they feared getting tarred with the anti-Muslim touch. Yet the BJP persevered and finally had a bad loss. The BJP seems to have never recovered from the loss of 2004, and at current levels, with the infighting, rivalry and corruption, it seems to have become a 'B' team of the Congress.
And now this. After initiating the discussion with the US over a nuclear deal, they are fighting the same deal. Most people even in the BJP would not admit that they could not have get a better deal, but they still seem to be opposing just for the sake of opposing. This is a good deal for India overall in terms of acceptance into the technology regime, into removal of many dual-control lists, and overall acceptance as a non-NPT nuclear power, and yet, for the sake of politics, the BJP wants to oppose the deal.
If they were to look closer into their vote base, they would find that a number of them have their lives and fortunes closely linked to faster development, more job growth, more amenities and civil facilities. Turning down the deal now because of politics has the potential to shake all of that. Seeing this short-sighted attitude by the BJP makes me very concerned about the path being followed by the party.

Labels: BJP, Development, Governance, Nuclear, Politics

The Indian Left is right now in the spotlight as they have never been before. Used to calling the shots with the Congress Government, including forcing humiliating about-turns on the various reform policies tried out by the Congress, they must have found it strange that that suddenly the Congress seems to have developed a spine and refused to do their bidding. And for days now, most analysts, a lot of public reaction and media analysis has accused the Communists of being China lackeys, being fossils, anti-development and progress, die-hard members of the anti-US coalition, etc. But what does the Left really want in all the discussion on the nuclear deal ? I found this article to be an interesting pointer to what their main objections are:

In a stern warning to the UPA government against implementing the civil nuclear deal with America, the CPM said it should decide whether it would go with the US or ‘remain firmly with the people’. "The Manmohan Singh government has to decide within a few weeks from now whether to go with the US or remain firmly with the people of India," CPM general secretary Prakash Karat told a public meeting.
Asserting that the Left parties were strongly opposed to any kind of strategic alliance with the US, he said it was a tragedy that the Central government had ‘compromised’ on the independent foreign policy stand enunciated by late Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

And this is exactly what their bone of contention is. They do not want a foreign policy based on reality, based on what the country can get in terms of a realistic evaluation of its strength; instead they want to stick onto a policy that is essentially anti-US. It is no matter that their patron saint China has almost essentially junked the ideals of communism except for the name of the party and its repressive one-party rule; it does not matter that China has been promising such aid to Pakistan, a concept that is against India's strategic interest; it does not matter that in international affairs, most treaties involves give and take, and India could have negotiated for decades without getting a treaty that would have given everything that it wanted; it does not matter that the concept of India's nuclear program, something that the CPM and its allied parties are getting so worked over is a policy that they have been opposing from the start; it does not matter that India has been denied technology for long because of its refusal to sign the NPT, and this treaty promises to over-turn these restrictions; it does not matter that we are a energy-hungry country and nuclear energy that we can currently get domestically is not as advanced and has been shown to be delayed every time and expensive; it does not matter that most security analysts and nuclear scientists who initially were hesitant about agreeing to this deal are much more positive in the final version; it does not matter that the constitution enables the cabinet to be able to commit to such a decision and to go back now would mean a severe loss of Indian credibility.
None of these matter. In the calculations of the Left, a going back on this deal would hurt the emerging India-US cooperation and grant them what they want; and maybe India would be better served by the friendship of tinpot countries such as Iran, Cuba and Venezuela. In the end, a foreign policy is based on the true interests of a country, and at this time, this deal is the best deal that the country will get that promises to get most of what it wants.
And if the Congress goes back on this deal, it will be the end of all their credibility. Manmohan Singh will have zero credibility, and will most likely have to resign, with the media going hammer and tongs after him about his humiliation, and the Congress will have to live with the humiliation of being ordered around by a party that has 60 seats in Parliament.

Labels: Congress, Development, Electricity, Image, Left, Nuclear, Parliament, Politics

This is getting to be a comedy. The Left has defined the relationship between itself and the UPA in terms of marriage, divorce, separation, issue based support, and so on. It is just as well that they have not gone more personal and intimate in describing the relationship :-). That would have been unbearable to read about.
So, read the latest comments from the central group of the Left parties:

The Left parties put brakes on the controversial Indo-US nuclear deal by warning the government of ‘serious consequences’ of operationalising it, but stopped short of withdrawing support to the UPA coalition.
Turning up the heat on the government, the CPM Politburo passed a resolution describing the deal as ‘unacceptable’ and demanding that the government should not proceed further on it by commencing negotiations with the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA for safeguards which would bind India in perpetuity.
Karat summed up the Left stand in these words: "So, we are saying don't proceed (with the deal), discuss the matter, take into account all the objections and concerns and then we can take a decision."

Total bollocks, is what one can say. The Left Government in West Bengal seems almost divorced from the stand of the centre, it after all wants to attract investment by US companies, and going all out against the US Government is not what it would want.
Essentially, the Left is against a closer interaction with the US, exactly the same as the patron saint of the Left, the Chinese Government would want. There is not much scope for a Non Aligned Movement now, yet the Left would maybe welcome closer ties with such tinpot dictatorships such as Cuba, Iran and Venezuela (whose main stand is also opposition to the US).
The position before the deal was such that India was running short of nuclear technology and fuel, and under the current regime, since India was not willing to sign the NPT as a non-nuclear weapons state, it would not have got any support. It is okay to protest against such a regime, but it would have done no good. So, both the BJP and the Congress, having been in power and not hypocrites such as the Left, realized that such a deal was necessary, and overall, the deal seems to be fine for India. It surely would not have got everything it wanted, and overall, seems to be in a decent state. There are no restrictions on the military development, except for the condition of doing a test, on which it is unreasonable to expect that states will stand by and not have conditions.

Labels: BJP, Congress, India, Left, Nuclear, Politics