Wednesday, August 22, 2007

What does the Left really want ?



The Indian Left is right now in the spotlight as they have never been before. Used to calling the shots with the Congress Government, including forcing humiliating about-turns on the various reform policies tried out by the Congress, they must have found it strange that that suddenly the Congress seems to have developed a spine and refused to do their bidding. And for days now, most analysts, a lot of public reaction and media analysis has accused the Communists of being China lackeys, being fossils, anti-development and progress, die-hard members of the anti-US coalition, etc. But what does the Left really want in all the discussion on the nuclear deal ? I found this article to be an interesting pointer to what their main objections are:

In a stern warning to the UPA government against implementing the civil nuclear deal with America, the CPM said it should decide whether it would go with the US or ‘remain firmly with the people’. "The Manmohan Singh government has to decide within a few weeks from now whether to go with the US or remain firmly with the people of India," CPM general secretary Prakash Karat told a public meeting.
Asserting that the Left parties were strongly opposed to any kind of strategic alliance with the US, he said it was a tragedy that the Central government had ‘compromised’ on the independent foreign policy stand enunciated by late Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.


And this is exactly what their bone of contention is. They do not want a foreign policy based on reality, based on what the country can get in terms of a realistic evaluation of its strength; instead they want to stick onto a policy that is essentially anti-US. It is no matter that their patron saint China has almost essentially junked the ideals of communism except for the name of the party and its repressive one-party rule; it does not matter that China has been promising such aid to Pakistan, a concept that is against India's strategic interest; it does not matter that in international affairs, most treaties involves give and take, and India could have negotiated for decades without getting a treaty that would have given everything that it wanted; it does not matter that the concept of India's nuclear program, something that the CPM and its allied parties are getting so worked over is a policy that they have been opposing from the start; it does not matter that India has been denied technology for long because of its refusal to sign the NPT, and this treaty promises to over-turn these restrictions; it does not matter that we are a energy-hungry country and nuclear energy that we can currently get domestically is not as advanced and has been shown to be delayed every time and expensive; it does not matter that most security analysts and nuclear scientists who initially were hesitant about agreeing to this deal are much more positive in the final version; it does not matter that the constitution enables the cabinet to be able to commit to such a decision and to go back now would mean a severe loss of Indian credibility.
None of these matter. In the calculations of the Left, a going back on this deal would hurt the emerging India-US cooperation and grant them what they want; and maybe India would be better served by the friendship of tinpot countries such as Iran, Cuba and Venezuela. In the end, a foreign policy is based on the true interests of a country, and at this time, this deal is the best deal that the country will get that promises to get most of what it wants.
And if the Congress goes back on this deal, it will be the end of all their credibility. Manmohan Singh will have zero credibility, and will most likely have to resign, with the media going hammer and tongs after him about his humiliation, and the Congress will have to live with the humiliation of being ordered around by a party that has 60 seats in Parliament.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 3:32 AM    


Friday, July 20, 2007

Not enough power for Government hospitals



Sometimes one feels that the state of governance in India is really the pits, and we have a long way to go before we can claim to be anywhere near a developed country. We only need to take a look at our critical infrastructure (such as power, water, roads, ports, etc) that are necessary to develop well and provide a good standard of living to our citizens, and to provide a good jumping ground to our industries. It is only the satisfactory development of our industries and economy that can drive up the overall development of the country.
And what is the state of governance in our country? Good governance means being able to provide a good government to people, which in turn breaks down into a number of steps such as being able to provide basic amenities, law and order, and so on. Providing dependable medical care is one of these requirements. But does anybody really think that we are providing a good medical infrastructure to our citizens, especially those who cannot afford the luxury of going to private hospitals. Well, if you do believe that our Governments are behaving well, take a look at this report:

In a shocking instance of poor infrastructure in government hospitals, surgeons of the Tirunelveli Government Hospital in Tamil Nadu are often forced to use battery-powered torchlights during surgeries due to frequent power problems. At least 50 per cent of the operations were done using torchlights in between as lights provided at the operation theatre goes off due to power fluctuation, a senior surgeon of the hospital in Tirunelveli, about 150 km from Madurai, said.
Though the hospital had the latest gadgets for performing dialysis, heart surgery etc, power supply was a major problem, the surgeon said. Dean of the Hospital Dr Hemalatha admitted that there was power problem, but denied operations being performed using torch light. But most of the surgeons at the hospital said "torch light operations are being done.


Firstly, the Government is not able to supply adequate power, a common problem across the country. But this is a man-made problem, with successive Governments not caring to properly anticipate the increase in need for power, and not setting up the required generation capabilities. In addition, most State Electricity Boards (SEB's) are in the red because they have to supply cheaply to many sections of consumers such as farmers for political reasons, and hence are never in a good financial condition.
In addition to these, transmission and distribution losses are an incredible percentage (a criminal wastage), and yet cracking down on power theft is seen as a problem due to political repercussions, and hence we lose a massive amount of power from our generating capabilities.
In these cases, most private sector units have their own power generation capabilities, and hence use generator or bigger plants. And for a hospital, since there is no concept of accountability built into the government run system, a generator can get burnt or spoilt, and yet nobody is held accountable for their responsibility. This needs to change; and it's no wonder that private companies with their concept of setting expectations and responsibilities normally are much better. Anybody who has money will go to a private hospital rather than a Government one.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 3:36 AM    


Friday, May 11, 2007

Mayawati pulls of a stunner in Uttar Pradesh elections



So the results of the Uttar Pradesh election is out, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has made a stunner of a win. Mayawati has moved towards the half-way mark of 202 on its own, and with the Congress having declared outside support for the BSP, it is all set to form a stable Government on its own. In addition, with the way that political elements in Uttar Pradesh type of politics are, one can count on independents to swing the way of power, and provide more support to Mayawati. Further, splits in established parties to increase the strength is not ruled out.
For elections in states such as Uttar Pradesh, what really counts is the caste mathematics of the voting. The Congress used to have a combination of Muslims, Dalits, and forward castes when it used to win elections after elections. HOwever, over a short period of time, caste politics broke the party's winning ways, and reduced it to an also an after-ran. Now, in this election, the BSP has managed to stitch together a coalition of the Dalits plus a section of the forward castes (primarily Brahmins). This sort of voting on caste lines is not exactly something that we should be happy about, given that it tends to deepen the divisions of caste. But as a pure electoral gambit, her strategy of wooing Brahmins has really paid off; she always had the support of the Dalits, but with more Brahmins voting for her, she is now the next chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.
What went wrong for Mulayam Singh Yadav ? It would be hard to say that it was just people getting tired of his administration - it was a general layer of dissatisfaction with the level of law and order in the state, and his inability (or maybe not even attempting to do much) about preventing local strongmen from taking over entire districts. Further, he did not exactly set the state on fire through development; the state's power situation was a mess, water is not exactly something that people are assured of at all times; and lots of earlier bright cities in the state are in a state of decay (with the exception of Noida). Further, he has the reputation of having a hand in every deal that happens - people talk about all these all the time, and a lot of them have been proved almost correct if you evaluate the various controversies that happen in the state over a period of time.
What can this state expect next ? One can be sure that the money making routine will continue in the sense of a large overhaul of the babudom and police services so that pliant people can be brought in. One really does not expect too much to happen otherwise, the only difference being that not too many expect Mayawati to not be corrupt, but she is the unquestioned leader in the party, and does not suffer even a second line in the party heirarchy. One can hope that she has learned from last time, and tries to make this most populus state of the country into an Uttam Pradesh, but with out current cynical level of belief in politicians, you will not find people who really believe that.
It is the unintended measures that could help. In her fight against Mulayam Singh Yadav, she could end up breaking his network of local goondas and make things safer for people, especially because her constituency of the dalits are the ones who are most affected by local bahubalis. One example is Raja Bhaiiya, who must be literally shaking in his boots.
Losers - the BJP and the Congress. The BJP has been stopped in its revival, and is more dependent on the elections in other states now to bring back the feel-good spirit. And the Congress, they lost their vote bank to the 3 other parties, and all the promised Rahul effect went for a toss (although they can still claim that he is building a party for the future). Now they can offer outside support to the BSP without being actually needed by the BSP.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 12:06 AM    


Friday, May 04, 2007

Failure at execution of large hydroelectric projects



Not having enough electricity, and criticizing the government for not providing a basic amenity such as electricity? Well, you are right to blame the government. In another sign that the government structure of babudom and its associated organs such as the electricity and power companies are not equipped to do things on time and in budget, a parliamentary panel has concluded that the country's hydroelectric projects have cost 388% to 2,532% more than initial estimates. Read this report:

In a scathing assessment of India’s attempts at building up its power-generation capacity, a parliamentary committee on energy has disclosed that the country’s hydroelectric projects have cost 388% to 2,532% more than originally estimated.
For instance, 35%, or 14,393 Megawatts (MW) of the 41,110MW of new capacity that was to be created in the five years from 2002 to 2007 was supposed to come from hydro projects. But only 7,886MW, or just over half of the planned additions, have come online.
The committee also blames the power ministry for the long delays. “The committee is surprised to note that, in spite of all the measures, there have been abnormal delays in the execution of some hydro projects...The committee is inclined to believe that proper assessment of certain foreseeable factors, such as (those relating to) geology and funds, is not done with due seriousness and recommends the ministry to take adequate steps in that direction.”
While the average lead time of a new hydroelectric power project is around five years, the projects have been hampered due to reasons as varied as delays in investment decisions, contractual problems, land acquisition problems, geological surprises and natural calamities, such as floods.

These are very serious charges. Electricity is the life-blood of a country, and in India chronic shortage of electricty has hobbled agriculture, and industries from the big and small.
Project management for such large projects consists of good estimations, planning to build, and taking care of all the issues that may emerge to slow down the project. Only dedicated people who are responsible for their actions can be depended on to do this.
However, in our structure, with the ministries being led by politicians, and with the amount of corruption and political influence that happens in the execution of such projects, these sort of delays are to be expected (although we should never accept this sort of thing). For such delays, one can be sure that no one will be held responsible, and things will continue as they are.
Large private industries have learnt to depend on their own captive consumption, most small enterprises pay for generator use, and urban areas of all sizes depend on inverters and generators to fill the gap. Unless we bring in more privatisation with such projects being executed by private contractors who are awarded contracts fairly and without political influence, not much sign of salvation can be seen.
Thankfully, such private work has started to happen, notably in the area of road construction, and with the recent award of the ultra-large capacity power plants, things should improve.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 5:02 AM