The modern thinking Indian

So, the bitterly contested election results of the Indian Lok Sabha (Parliamentary elections) are out, and it is the incumbent party, the Congress Party that is the decisive winner. During the course of the campaign and even during the month long multi-stage voting process, it seemed that there was a tight fight between the Congress and the BJP led camps. It was also projected that there would be an incredible fight for support from the smaller parties all over the country. This prospect saw these parties salivating over the prospect, and over the demands they would make from the major parties for this support.
So there was a constant tussle about whether existing partners are viable or not, and some parties made gambles. The Biju Janta Dal gambled that it would come back to power without the support of the BJP, the Congress gambled that it would need to build long-term in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (and in Bihar, it did not have much of a choice, since Lalu gave the party only 3 seats). The Congress gambled about going with the DMK even though Jayalalitha seemed to be the one riding the victory wagon. However, as the election result day came closer, nervousness gripped the Congress and it talked about changing partners, soliciting the support of the Left, looking to Nitish and Jayalalitha for support, and even trying to get closer to the Samajwadi Party.
The exit polls that started getting published once the stay on them was removed after the 13th (the last phase of election) were again off the mark, since they all projected that the Congress will have a narrow lead over the BJP and would need support from many parties. The BJP of course refused to believe such polls and stood fast in projecting that they will be the victors.
And then came the election results - and they were shocking to everyone. The Congress led poll, the UPA, is almost at the point of having half the seats, while the BJP led alliance, the NDA, is way behind. The Congress gained seats all over the country, with the party looking to reach 200 seats on its own (its best result since it started declining in the 1989 polls); it trounced the BJP in many states that the BJP should count as core constituencies such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttranchal, and made gains even in states such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujrat. The Congress made real good in states such as Andhra Pradesh, with the partners, the DMK, in Tamil Nadu.
However, the major surprises in this election happened in multiple states; in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress needs to get back its core constituency and it seems that the gamble it took seems to have paid off (it has got 20 seats on its own), in Maharashtra, the MNS seems to have bitten into the seats of the Shiv Sena and the BJP and led the Congress to victory. The biggest surprise has been the Left strongholds of Kerala and West Bengal. Kerala frequently changes between the Congress and the Communist, and in this election, the fight between the different factions of the Communist party propelled the Congress to victory. The biggest surprise seems to have been in West Bengal where the Congress combination with Mamta Banerjee blew away the Communist party in the state where the Communists have held sway since 1977.
What are some of the conclusions from this election:
- Manmohan Singh re-emerges as the Congress Prime Minister with a much stronger support and with less interference from supporting parties
- The BJP leader LK Advani will slowly fade away - he is already 81 years old and unlikely to be the leader in the next election
- Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are the unquestioned leaders of the country now - even people such as me who do not believe in dynastic based leadership have to acknowledge that they have led their party to a genuine victory
- Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik are new emblems of victory, with strong shows of performance and low individual corruption levels
- The Left, having been used to a much stronger influence in the last Parliament will be a pale self with questions about the leadership becoming much stronger
- Mayawati has faced a severe setback in her quest for national leadership; the same goes for former influential leaders such as Mulayam Singh Yadav (who suffered after inducting Kalyan Singh), Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan
- Economic policies and world related policies should remain the same and in fact become more clear and without the holding back due to the Left

Labels: BJP, Congress, Election, India, Left, Mayawati, Parliament, Politics, Ram Vilas Paswan

National parties have always had problems with the concept of partners in different states, since the concept of having a partner who is strong in a state is that the national party has to play second fiddle in the specific state. The BJP faces this to some extent in Punjab (where the Akali Dal believes that it is the stronger party), in Bihar (where the JD(U) is the stronger party), in Maharashtra (where the playing second fiddle to the Shiv Sena is something that the party does not really like), in Orissa (where the senior member, Naveen Patnaik's BJD moved away suddenly); however, the BJP has less scope for such problems in the southern states where it needs to expand since it does not have much of a base in Andhra, Tamil Nadu, or Kerala. Similarly, states such as West Bengal are out of its reach for some time.
However, the Congress is running into far more problems with respect to its alliance, especially as it publicly (and in full media awareness) pitches for more allies post-results. For 5 years, the Congress lived with alliance partners without much problems except for the Left (whose morals always caused them to have problems with the policies of the Left). However, as it approached the election, it started shedding allies, until it is primarily right now left with just a few - Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and IUML in Kerala.
In other states, the basic problem is with having to search for allies who are either in competition with the Congress, or are in competition with the current allies of the Congress. So, for example when Rahul Gandhi suggested that the Congress is open to new allies, he was scouting for support from the left, from Nitish Kumar's JD(U), from the AIADMK, from Naveen Patnaik's BJD, he immediately ran into trouble. The Congress is allied with Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, and in both Kerala and Bengal, the Congress is pitted in a battle with the Communist Parties. Mamta did not appreciate the comments by Rahul inviting support from the Left, and neither will the DMK about any potential support from Jayalalitha. Similarly, Lalu Prasad Yadav will certainly not be happy about any overtures to Nitish Kumar.
In states such as Orissa, the Congress is in bitter competition with the BJD, and similarly with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. It will difficult for it to accept support from these parties, since the state units of the Congress will find it difficult to support these changed circumstances, but they will not have an option if the Congress needs support for the Central Government. And a number of such parties will provide support since they will also get their pound of flesh from the Government formation. The next few weeks will be interesting to watch, people will truly understand the meaning of the phrase, 'nothing is impossible'.

Labels: Alliance, BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, India, Left, Parliament, Politics

In the last election, the NDA was the dominant party, and with the 'India Shining' campaign, it seemed that nothing could stop the BJP led front from coming to power. However, the people of India had different ideas, and did not give the BJP the required number of seats so that the BJP could come to power as a part of the NDA. It was the Congress that had a larger number of seats; it was at that time that the Congress, probably for the first time in its long existence, developed the ability to form coalitions. The Congress looked far and wide, and allied itself with a number of parties that would have earlier opposed the Congress (with some of the alliances being before the election, and some after the election). So the Congress allied itself with people as varied as Sharad Pawar's NCP, the Bihar parties of Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, DMK, PMK, and a few other smaller parties. More importantly, the Left parties, who are sworn allies of the Congress in Kerala and West Bengal were also induced to be supporting parties due to prevent the coming to power of the BJP.
Most of these alliances existed almost till the end of the Congress term, with remaining in power being a great inducement for all involved. However, these stable alliances now seem totally in disarray as we are now in the midst of polls. Take a sample of what one of the most trusted allies, Laloo Prasad Yadav says (link to article):

The Railway Minister, who all along has maintained that Manmohan Singh was the UPA candidate, on Tuesday sang a different tune against the backdrop of his party RJD and the Congress going their own ways to fight the elections in Bihar. "UPA is a confederation of secular parties and does not belong only to the Congress. We will sit together (after the elections are over) to chalk out a common minimum programme and in consultation with all our partners select a leader who will be the prime minister," Prasad told reporters in Patna.
Asked about the strained relations between the RJD-LJP alliance in Bihar and the Congress, Prasad said, "These things are natural during elections. Do you expect us to worship each other. There is a famine of candidates in the Congress, which is busy rebuilding and reviving its organisation. But despite the presence of Congress candidates in the fray in large numbers against nominees of secular parties the NDA will be wiped out," he said.

In addition, everybody knows how the Left is already in open opposition to the Congress, and has been so ever since Manmohan Singh made his effort to push for the India-US nuclear deal. The UPA has also other constituents such as the PMK, and has managed to make enmity with both Mayawati and Mulayam Singh.
Part of the reason for this strain in relations, especially in the Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, is the need for Congress to remake itself in these states. It was in the 1989 election that the Congress downfall in these key states became apparent, to the extent that the Congress is almost non-existent in these states. It is the dream of Congress strategy makers to make the Congress more powerful in these states again, and the only way they can do that is to regain the support of many caste groups that were with them, and are now with these parties. It is also for the same reason that the caste groups are fine with allying with the Congress as long as the Congress plays second fiddle, and gains ground in other states.
The irony of the disintegration of the UPA as a pre-election alliance is that it was the BJP that has been suffering the jolts earlier. They were deserted by Chandrababu Naidu earlier, and on the eve of this election, it was the close partner, Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janta Dal who deserted the BJP (and it was the Congress which was being gleeful when all this happened).
However, does something really change ? If the elections throw up a hung parliament, one can be sure that these parties will come together, as the need to throw up a 'secular' alternative to the BJP will still remain as a glue to make sure that they retain their power.

Labels: Alliance, BJP, Caste, Conflict, Congress, Election, India, Laloo, Left, Parliament, Political, Politics, Ram Vilas Paswan

The Left is waxing eloquent over the current economic problems sweeping all over the globe. The Left parties, represented primarily by the CPM in India, claim credit for opposing FDI in insurance upto 49%, for preventing full capital convertibility, for banking sector reform, and so on. In addition, they claim credit for such social alleviation schemes such as the National Employment Guarantee Program, the farmer loan waiver, prevention of expansion of the SEZ Act, etc. In this, the Congress has also come to the forefront, claiming that it was the slow and measured pace of implementation of reform that led to the country being reasonably insulated from the global mayhem, and by preventing pension fund deposits into the stock market, they prevented loss of money in the pension funds (due to the stock market crash). As further proof of the re-emergence of their way of thinking, they quote the recent interest in Marx and his books.
What a lot of bull. If you compare India with other countries around the globe that were in a similar situation just 20-30 years back, many of them would have suffered much greater economic turmoil than in India, but, and mark this point, even with all this turmoil, these countries have a per capita standard of living which is much better than that afforded to a majority of Indian citizens. For decades after independence, India used a socialist state-controlled approach to growth, and ended up with a small incremental growth level of 2-4 %. Combine this with a population growth of a similar percent, and you end up with a continued high level of grinding poverty.
It is only when the state let go of some of its controls and allowed private enterprise to grow did we start seeing a higher rate of growth and a trickle down effect of the growth starting to reach lower sections of the population (by lower, I mean lower on the economic plane). What India needs is more release of the merits of private enterprise, more openness. What one needs to recognize is that the economic turmoil growing through the US is the result of the regulators failing in their duty, and not the failure of capitalism. Currently, everything seems bleak, and that is because this seems like a terrifying recession. However, every recession comes to an end, and when the next growth phase starts, we will all be enjoying the merits of free enterprise and a faster rate of growth.

Labels: Depression, Economy, Finance, Growth, Left

The Nano project was a dream for Ratan Tata, and he was wooed by many states eager to get this prestigious project to their state. Besides the prestige, the project was also expected to generate jobs (the main project plus ancillaries are expected to be big business). Of course, there was the expectation that land needed to be sought for this purpose. And therein lies the problem. When a project needs a major amount of land, the land acquisition is a problem, and given the increase in industrialization in the country, we will continue to face more problems. Land fragmentation is so high that to get the required amount of contiguous land for a factory or a major project means negotiating with a large number of farmers. And this is where the state steps in - the state, in situations where it is a question of industrialization, can actually acquire land at the market rate from farmers for 'public purpose'. There has been doubt in the past about whether acquiring land for a private company is a public purpose, and a recent Supreme Court judgment has sanctioned this - the court makes clear that public purpose need not mean that land only needs to be used for a Government need, but any project that generates employment and is beneficial for the local economy can be termed as a 'public purpose' project.
For the romantics who worry about a loss of village life, about the loss of land from farmers, and so on; one should ask them to live in villages for some time, especially with fragmented holdings; then they will realize that a village life is not so romantic. The known path for economic prosperity is where an economy moves up the path of industrialization, away from an agricultural focus and more into manufacturing and services where the value added is much greater. This is not meant to say that farmers land should be acquired just like that. Acquiring land for a project needs careful study; I believe Gujarat has a policy whereby there is an evaluation whether waste land can be used for this purpose, and only after that, is land taken from farmers. Farmers and others (landless laborers, sharecroppers, etc who are not compensated for land acquisition) affected by land acquisition all need to get a stake in the project, whether that be through granting them a mechanism like shares in the project, making sure that locals get enough jobs, etc.
Education is also an important part of the whole acquisition ball game. Typically, political parties don't take it very kindly when their policies are opposed by another political party. One way to avoid this is through educating villagers about how this will be beneficial to the local economy and to them (you can only do this if there are actual benefits).
Onto the current case. This is a mystery; you have a Communist Government trying to enforce a industrial project, and you have an opposition maverick politician using the acknowledged Communist methods of protest - use propaganda, rally people, block the local economic movement by blocking the main road artery, and so on. She succeeded to such an extent that the West Bengal Chief Minister could not even question the locus standi if Mamta Banerjee ? Nobody even attempted to ask as to how the Trinamool Congress claimed to be a representative of the local farmers and others. Mamta quite clearly sees this as a way of depicting the CPM as anti-poor and anti-farmer and try to rally the rural votebank behind her. In the short run, this has caused a crisis of confidence in West Bengal's ability to attract businesses:

West Bengal's worst fear has come true. Ratan Tata announced on Friday that he was leaving Singur, taking with him the Nano car project and the state's dream of an economic revival and leaving it with a tattered image in the investor's eye. The Nano project will also take with it all vendors despite the huge shifting costs, leaving a 1,000-acre black hole in the lush green Singur farmlands where Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee had hope to reap a huge political dividend as well.
On Friday, a ''distressed'' chief minister heard Tata Group chairman Ratan Tata's message, loud and clear. He made fervent pleas to Tata to stay back and keep his Rs 1,500 crore investment, even argued with Ratan Tata that his decision wasn't correct but couldn't change the industrialist's mind. The Tata Group chairman said he wasn't the one to blame for things coming to this pass. He squarely blamed Mamata Banerjee for pushing him to take the pullout decision, two years after his tryst with the Nano car factory in West Bengal.

What Ratan Tata says is quite correct. If he is setting up an industry, he would want to do it in an environment which is conducive to business; this is a basic need for having a healthy and prosperous business. The fact that Mamta Banerjee did all sort of things, including tacitly encouraging physical attack on the plant's workers would have terribly shaken Ratan Tata's confidence about the reception his factory is likely to get on an ongoing basis.

Labels: Community, Development, Image, Law, Left, Neighbourhood, Politics, Security

This was about one of the most anticipated news in recent times on an individual politician level. The Speaker, Somnath Chaterjee has been a member of the CPM for a long long time, having been a Member of Parliament from the party for 10 times now. For all appearances, he has been an articulate and devoted member for the party. At the same time, as the party drew up its leadership over a period of time, it was clear that Somnath Chaterjee was not going to be a candidate in the succession chain, and given that he is 79 years, not likely to happen in the future also.
There was a lot of buzz that he wanted to the President, but the CPM did not agree to this (leading to some disappointment with the party politburo). At the same time, even though the BJP keeps on accusing him of acting in a biased manner, he seems to have given the office of the Speaker his all. It was a familiar sight of the Speaker trying his best to bring an unruly house to control (and mostly failing). So, there must have been the feeling that he enjoyed a constitutional post, with the prestige associated with it, and above the dictates of any party.
Even then, it was a matter of surprise that he refused to obey the diktat of the CPM that he quit the office of the Speaker and became defiant in his attitude. This must have been very unsettling for the party; a Communist party likes to believe that once the Politburo has spoken, then there is no cause for dissent; even if it is the holder of a constitutional post. So, the party backed down a bit, keeping his name off the whip, but the action was predicted. It was the timing that was to be considered, and it was fast:

Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee was on Wednesday expelled by CPM climaxing a fortnight-long defiance of the veteran parliamentarian to quit at the call of the party with which he was associated for four decades. The party invoked Article 19 (13) of its constitution to expel him under summary procedures without any notice on the charge of "seriously compromising" the party position.
The 79-year old barrister and ten-time MP, Chatterjee rejected both subtle and explicit hints from the party leadership, which asked him to quit the post to which he was elected unanimously after the 2004 elections, saying he was above party politics given the post he held.

Somehow, this action also gives a hint of the anger that is bubbling within the CPM over the vote loss and consequent loss of influence, that it took a fast and quick action against a leader who has been with the party for long.

Labels: Anger, Left, Morality, Parliament, Politics

For the past several days, ever since the UPA Government announced that a trust vote will happen on the 22nd, there has been an incredible amount of horse-trading ongoing to secure support. Everybody knows how Amar Singh ran circles around Shri Karat of the going-into-decline Left and left it in a position whereby it now has no influence and no leverage over the policies of the Government. So, one can assume that Amar Singh did what he could to win over rival MP's, while Mulayam Singh led the effort to ensure that the MP's of the Samajwadi Party did not bolt (seeing the final result where the Congress won it fairly comfortably, one can assume that all the efforts were successful). Who is left with egg on their faces ? Both the BJP that staked a lot of its political power on this no-confidence motion, and the Left, which went from a position where it was guiding the hands of power (a remote-control if you may) to a position where it does not count for anything more for the moment.
Given the low profile that Uttar Pradesh has played in the past few years in terms of a Government at the center, it was surprising that politicians from the state played such a key role. Mayawati was like the magnet, drawing in the likes of defectors from the SP, from the Congress, pulling in Ajit Singh (will the Government now rename the Chaudhury Charan Singh Airport back to another name now that Ajit Singh did not support the Congress ?).
There were a number of people who played up to her ego, calling her a future Prime Minister. Maybe it was a combination of this ego-massaging, a feeling that she is the future, as well as a call to the Dalit community all over the country to support her that she made comments such as these:

Undeterred by the outcome of the trust vote, BSP chief Mayawati on Tuesday alleged the UPA and as well as the NDA of "conspiring" to prevent her from becoming the country's prime minister. Talking to media soon after the UPA won the trust vote in the Lok Sabha, the Uttar Pradesh CM said, "UPA's victory is not due to their policies but a well thought-out political conspiracy by both the NDA and the UPA to check the BSP and prevent the daughter of a Dalit from becoming the prime minister of the country."
Mayawati claimed that in the last week, her party has emerged as the fulcrum of national politics. "The Left also sees merit and finds that when BSP has given such good governance in the largest state of the country, it can be tried at the national level," she added. "What BSP hoped to achieve in the next 6-7 years, it has managed to do in 6-7 days," she said, referring to the UNPA and her new positioning in national politics.

These are the kind of politics that are abhorrent, that drive wedges in an already divided country. So far the BSP, for all the money-making practices of its leader, has been accepted as a platform that shows oppressed Dalits that they can also lead and have power; however, when somebody starts indulging in such negative politics, it has a major effect on their credibility.

Labels: BJP, Caste, Congress, Left, Mayawati, Morality, Politics

For some time now, many supporters and those slightly leaning towards the BJP are very troubled by the stand that the BJP has been taking towards the nuclear deal. In the beginning, there was a lot of waffling towards the deal, with Advani once urging the party to review the deal. In addition, Brajesh Mishra, seen as close to the former Prime Minister and tall leader, Atal Behari Vajpayee, has come out in open support to the deal (even though the rest of the party is shocked by his stand). For most of the middle class supporters of the deal (especially for those who care about this topic), the deal is making the best of a bad situation, and it enables closeness towards the US, something that is seen as natural to India (left leaning people will disagree, but if you leave aside the blinkers of a non-aligned world, would you rather be more friendly with the US than with say states such as Iran / Venezuela / Russia / China).
The BJP / NDA must be seeing the current separation between the Left and the Congress as a chance to bring the Government down, and then do what ? Even now, I believe that the BJP is no closer to getting to power. It will win in the states where it won the state elections, but there are vast stretches of the country where it will come a cropper, such as Uttar Pradesh where Mayawati is reigning supreme, in states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the same level of development has not happened as in Gujrat. And in the current horse-trading for getting votes in Parliament, Mayawati seems to be getting all the publicity. She is the one to whom many undecided MP's are going towards. Read this:

Sources said the saffron party is in a fix and fears of a backlash in either situation of the government winning or losing the trust vote. "NDA is nowhere in the picture. If the government loses, the credit goes to Mayawati and the Third front. If it wins then Mulayam would emerge as a winner and strategist," a leader of one of the NDA constituents said.
In the BJP camp, leaders fear that UPA losing the vote would certainly be a booster for Mayawati camp but if the government wins the trust vote, BJP would be accused by parties like BSP of conniving with the Congress to bail them out, sources added.

The BJP currently is not any closer to getting more allies to support it. What it really should do is to let the Government survive, lurch from one problem to another as it deals with having to pay back all the political debt it took onto win this vote, and let voter disenchantment with high inflation keep on getting stoked. Further, it really needs to get more time to set its house in order in the northern states, and re-activate the fames Sangh network in Uttar Pradesh. Such time would also some fissures to appear in Mayawati's support base among the forward castes.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Nuclear, Politics

If you consider the pedigree of these 2 gentlemen, RJD chief Lalu Prasad (who is a self-claimed socialist having risen up through the support of the people), and CPI leader AB Bardhan (and of course the Communists always consider themselves to be the representatives of the people, even if the ungrateful people do not elect them to the national level government); then you would realize that they should be natural allies. Both are opposed to the Congress (or were opposed earlier), both have come up through the support of the poor and the repressed sections of society; and of course both are violently and vehemently opposed to the BJP (after all, both these parties are pure secular parties). So, having said all this, why do the following statements not seem out of place and seem completely normal since these are political people after all:

Launching a scathing attack on CPI leader AB Bardhan for his remarks that UPA was buying MPs for Rs 25 crore each, RJD chief Lalu Prasad on Friday said the CPI leader should prove his 'nasty' allegations or 'apologise'. "Bardhan has harmed the reputation of all parties with his comments. He has said a very nasty thing," Prasad told reporters after chairing a meeting of the RJD Parliamentary Party at his residence here.
The CPI leader has "defamed" MPs of all parties and "assassinated their character", Prasad said adding, "he should either prove his allegations or apologise". Spewing more venom on the CPI general secretary, he said, "The country will never forgive Bardhan. He has defamed Parliamentary democracy. His allegations are a conspiracy to destroy the very foundations of democracy."

Of course, if the situation so requires, then the same Lalu could go off the next day to meet Bardhan and expound to the press about what a great leader Bardhan actually is; and no one will consider this to be abnormal. Is it then any issue that most Indian consider politicians to not have any morals, and be downright power-hungry ?

Labels: Deal, Left, Morality, Politics

The Left has always modeled itself on its adherence to political probity, and to good norms (in the process considering itself the party with the highest morals); of course it is another matter that people who cannot stand the policies of the Left (and its pandering to an out-dated economic model and to its adherence to a blind model of secularism (you just have to remember their threatening the Samajwadi Party with the loss of the Muslim vote if it supported the Congress) consider it the most morally bankrupt party. And of course, its dictatorial and violent ways in Bengal shows up its true nature. But this particular example takes the cake.
In the Indian system of parliamentary democracy, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha is seen to be an impartial judge, and even though a lot of politics go into the election of the Speaker, once in, the speaker is seen as the most unbiased political person, and specially not supporting the policies of the party from which he was elected. Many speakers in the past have tried to adhere to this policy (and some have succeeded to some degree). The current speaker, Somnath Chaterjee, has always claimed that he is now not a Left party member, but the speaker, the person who no longer will profess any political beliefs.
So, how come such a situation has come to pass that the speaker is being told by Comrade Karat that he is now a Left party member and should withdraw from the post of the speaker. This is crass bad political behavior, trying to force a person to resign who is supposed to be now above political beliefs:

Despite the pressure mounted on him by the CPM leadership to resign his post immediately, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee remains defiant as he questioned their very decision to go along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). An angry Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) general secretary Prakash Karat, according to party sources, has asked Politburo member Sitaram Yechury to convince Chatterjee about quitting the Speaker's post, which was the result of an understanding that the Left had with the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) when it decided to prop it up in 2004.
However, Chatterjee, who has had meetings with Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Petroleum Minister Murli Deora during the last two days, is insisting he would give up his Lok Sabha membership also if he had to quit the Speaker's post. The Speaker is believed to have told the CPM leadership that he would not be in a position to vote against the UPA in the Lok Sabha. Chatterjee, who will be 79 on July 25, is also arguing that such a move would cast a shadow on the Speaker's office as it is supposed to be above party politics.

Somehow, in this case, one does not think that it is the loss of the chair that is worrying Chaterjee as much as the fact that suddenly he is being forced to resign to support a cause for which he was not consulted.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Morality, Nuclear, Parliament, Politics

Who would have believed that something like this could happen even a month back ? When last year the Prime Minister had declared that his (actually, the Congress party of Sonia Gandhi) was not a one-issue Government, it was taken for granted that with the Left putting a veto on the nuclear deal, and with the allies unwilling to sacrifice the Government for a nuclear deal, the nuclear deal was as good as dead. And even recently, when the Government again raised the issue, it seemed like with the Left unwilling to back down, the deal would not happen, and the entire issue would be political posturing.
And then, suddenly, like a Jack in the Box suddenly popping out, the Congress and the Prime Minister appear to have outsmarted the Left. With the Left even otherwise not leaving a chance to criticize the Government over many issues, the Government must have been chafing at the tone used by the Left (the Congress, even in a coalition Government is never really tolerant of the people providing support). And the political movement by the Congress and the Samajwadi Party must have surprised the CPM and their other left brothers the maximum. They have been so used to being able to turn the heat on the Government that even the slightest hint of alternate support from the SP will be enough to make the Congress stand up and look the left in the eye.
And this is what precisely seems to have happened. The Congress will appreciate the support provided by the 39 MP's of the SP (vs. the 59 MP's of the Left); at the same time, the SP is in a bad state in its home state of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati's political stars look to be continually on the rise, and the SP really needs an alliance to prevent the split of its votes. And one has to admire its political cunning - in order to avoid the charge of being anti-Muslim and get a reason for changing its stand to a nuclear-deal supporter, it used a meeting with APJ Kalam to showcase as a reason for changing its stand. He is a former President and a missile man, so his support is important to justify a change in stand, and he is a middle class and educated Muslim icon, so this will help mollify its Muslim base.
Where does this leave the Left ? It has an alltime high of 59 MP's, but Kerala is famous for changing its political mind quickly, and the Left suffered some major reversals in West Bengal local elections, thus ensuring that early next elections could see a much reduced Left MP count. Even now, it could almost seem like that they are no longer relevant.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Muslim, Nuclear, Reform

This is surely something that must be scaring the Congress chief (Sonia Gandhi, not Manmohan Singh). The same Prime Minister who last August backed down after initially acting like a lion (remember the statement - 'this is not a one issue Government' ?) is now suddenly passing out signals that he wants the nuclear deal to be done, and is willing to sacrifice the support of the left.
Sonia Gandhi must be scared out of her wits - her compliant Prime Minister is suddenly displaying a spine, her reluctant allies (the ever pressurizing left) are threatening that they will have a team outside Rashtrapati Bhavan to give the withdrawal letter to the President if the Government states its intention to go ahead with the nuclear deal, inflation is out of control and threatens to remain so, farmers are protesting in many states because of the fertilizer snafu, the other allies (NCP, DMK, RJD, etc) are all potential allies of the Left and hence not particularly eager to buck the support of the Left and go in for maybe possible early elections where they will also get tagged with the inflation and bad governance tag, and the Congress is losing states left right and center, ceding many of them to the BJP.
This particular issue comes as a surprise to most political observers; after all, the nuclear deal had more or less died out as an issue that the Congress would bother to pick up a fight for - it does not have electoral appeal, most people in the country would not bother to base their voting pattern over such a deal, and the left would have painted proponents of such a deal as being very aligned to the US (not a very appealing prospect to most parties who believe that this would put off the Muslim vote - not a done deal, but most parties believe that this is the likely case). It was only strategic observers who bemoaned the loss that the country was facing over the failure of such a deal (and the fact that such a deal was not something that India's neighboring countries were happy over). There were weaknesses in such a deal, but the fact is that unless India were to steal advanced technology, this deal is about as good a deal as it got (and that too because Washington has its own motives behind such a deal, including the advantages that its own nuclear plant firms would get).
So now what happens ? I would suspect that eventually the Prime Minister will back down; they have already done so many rollbacks because of the pressure of the Left that maybe they have lost the guts and sight to see that the Left would face a bad time if elections were held now. The Left faces pressure because of the Nandigram incident, and Kerala is ripe for a movement of the electorate to the Congress (because the Left Government in Kerala has not exactly been an epitome of good governance); further, if the Left withdraws support now, and the BJP comes to power, then the left loses whatsoever influence it has over the policies of the country.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Governance, Left, Nuclear

Nandigram has been the epicenter of trouble for the Communist West Bengal Government (along with Singur). The Government had proposed to acquire land in the region for the purpose of setting up industry, and this had landed the whole region in problem. Whatever be the purpose of the Government to increase the level of industrialization (and I had looked upon this move with favor, since industrialization and proper compensation for acquiring land does benefit farmers), the next reaction of the CPM regime was shocking.
The Government faced opposition from a collection of different parties and groups, and yet their objective should have been to maintain law and order. However, the Government and Left parties instead treated this as a person affront against them (and the involvement of the Mamta Banerjee led Trinamool Congress only caused more problems for them). There was a massive confrontation between the armed cadres of the CPM (along with the full support of the state police) against the villagers and their support, and eventually it reached such a stage that there was a wave of condemnation against the tactics of the CPM.
Well, it seems like all those tactics have rebounded on the CPM, since the Trinamool has gained control over a zilla parishad, maybe a watershed in the politics of West Bengal:

In a jolt to the CPI(M)-led Left Front, Trinamool Congress defeated its candidates in trouble-torn Nandigram in the three-tier panchayat elections in West Bengal. The Front also faced rout in three zilla parishad seats in Singur to Trinamool Congress candidates.
Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress wrested control of zilla parishad in East Midnapur where trouble-torn Nandigram is located. It won 32 of the 53 seats, results of which were declared so far. It is the first time that Trinamool Congress gained control over a zilla parishad, the main decision-making body in the district.

I don't believe that there is an inherent opposition to the policies of industrialization that the West Bengal government is following, but the Government seems to believe that it is in China, where any policy can be ruthlessly enforced and any opposition suppressed.

Labels: Community, Development, Election, Left, Politics

The Congress is used to a sense of getting scolded from the Left parties on a regular note on a frequent basis; after all, the Congress does not want to give up power and is willing to face as many words of threats and scoldings as necessary as long as the Left continues to support them. The Congress has rolled back so many initiatives in the past, that people no longer expect much reform from the Congress anymore - pension reforms, labour reforms, SEZ (to some extent), the strategically important nuclear bill, and so on. And the Congress does not only pander to the wishes of the Left, even an insignificant party such as the PMK can make the PM face censure, and yet is unable to say anything. Hence, even when the AIIMS bill (pushed through by the PMK and passed by the Union Cabinet) is thrown by the Supreme Court, the Health Minister (of the PMK) will face no shame since this was after all a bill of the Government; and it is the Prime Minister who faces censure by the media of bad governance and unable to even control misadvances by his allies.
But even with all this, the criticism by a Left Chief Minister who was once seen as the blue-eyed boy of the Prime Minister must have pinched; and especially when he blames the Government for the inflation levels.
The Government has constantly blamed global factors for the high inflation levels, and it is true that commodity problems are there in the whole world. However, once you start breaking down the various elements of these commodities, then you realize that so many of the problems are due to Government oversight or inability to take decisions:
- Food prices are seen to be a problem worldwide, and India is seen to be getting affected. However, this is contingent on accepting that India cannot grow all the food that it required. This is a statement that should not be accepted. Instead, it must be accepted that this Government has really not taken any concrete steps to increase foodgrain production, instead there has been almost stagnation. The Government has a responsible Minister Sharad Pawar who has a vested interest in the whole subject, and who shows more interest in being the President of a cash-rich cricket board. Hence, the Government, instead of trying to curtail the massive losses of foodgrains from production to the consumption path through trying to ensure more cold storage, a better distribution system, and letting the efficiency of private sector contacts with the farming industry, has instead dashed from one short term solution to another, blaming almost everyone for this current state.
- Oil is seen as a major problem because of high oil prices. India launched great plans to encourage production, but recent reports have indicated that ONGC has failed to make the strikes of oil and natural gas in the areas that they were allocated, and then there was a lot of skirmish between the then Minister and the oil chief, resulting in a decrease in the efficiency in this area. Further, the Government has really not tried to make alternative plans, with almost no focus on incentives for industries to reduce their energy consumption. As to promoting alternate energy policies, there is almost no movement in this regard. Piblic transport, that can reduce oil usage in the transport sector in the cities, is mostly a shame (except for some exception such as the Metro, and the locals in Mumbai).
- Mining. India has immense mining resources, as the states of Jharkand, Orissa and Chhatisgarh have discovered; however, there has been a inordinate amount of discussion and debate (most of it unproductive) about mining policies, and as a result, there has been an inefficient use of these precious resources
One could go and on, but the net result is that the Government has setup committees for most issues as a way to put off the discussions, and as a result, things keep on hanging on and on, and now we see the way that the Government has not been able to plan for eventualities.

Labels: Congress, Governance, Left, Responsibility

In a move that indicates that the Government has apparently not done its homework on getting its allies on board on the move to introduce the Women's Reservation Bill, the Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) (whose head Laloo Prasad Yadav and other leaders are part of the Government) has opposed the move by the Government and accused it of taking the action without consulting its allies. The Mandal parties want the women's quota to have sub-quotas for OBC's and Muslims, something that the other parties and many sections of the Congress support base will oppose:

The Rashtriya Janata Dal on Wednesday upped its opposition to the women's reservation Bill threatening to withdraw support to the UPA government if the legislation was not amended to provide sub-quotas for OBCs and Muslims within the generic gender quota in legislatures.
In a development which undercut the PM's effort to dispel the perception of a split in the UPA over the women's quota, the RJD accused the Congress leadership of rushing through the Bill without hammering out a consensus. RJD's aggressive posture was yet another instance of how OBC resentment over the "present form" of women's quota had strained ties between allies. Early on, RJD leadership fielded party MP Devendra Yadav to warn the Congress leadership not to mistake its protest to be just pyrotechnics. Yadav said his party would go to any extent to thwart the passage of the already-delayed legislation.

This reaction was somewhat expected, but there are unexpected movements also happening. First, the RJD is a part of the ruling coalition and is part of the Government, so the fact that it is complaining about the introduction of the legislation means that discussions about this long-delayed bill really did not move to a conclusion.
In addition, there seems to be a sudden amount of tension between the natural allies of SP and the CPM, given that they are on opposite sides of the Bill. Reservation in legislature on the basis of caste and religion are very touchy subjects and will be the first thing to be opposed in court as being unconstitutional.

Labels: Caste, Congress, Election, Law, Left, Parliament, Politics, Reservations, Women

That's a joke. The Congress made a decision many months ago that it cannot afford to let the Government fall, and in the face of the open threats by the left parties, after an initial show of resistance, the Government backed down. In the face of reports over the last few months, it is clear that the allies refused to consider going ahead with the deal if the Left dropped support, and the Congress leadership itself did not see the deal as something that would win it an election, and hence, for political reasons, the deal was declared dead.
The Government had also told the United States (where the President as well as the Indian American community had spent considerable effort in pushing for the deal) that the deal was off, and in the current circumstances, there is no way the deal looked set to go. With all this settled, one wonders as to why the Government is still resorting to this regular drama of the UPA-Left coordination committee:

The UPA-Left committee on the Indo-US nuclear deal would meet here on Tuesday with the Left parties, providing outside support to the Congress-led ministry, sticking to their guns and the government saying it would seek the sense of Parliament on the matter.
"We will consider what the government will report to us on its talks with the IAEA. On that basis, we will take the issue forward," a senior Left leader said when asked about the stand they would take at the upcoming meeting. Asserting that the Left opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal continued, he said the government was committed to consider the findings of this committee while taking the next step on the nuclear deal.

The last such meeting took place on March 17, more than a month and a half back, and there does not seem to be anything that would make the Left change its stand. Even though the deal has been supported by strategic observers and by nuclear observers, and most international countries consider this a sweet deal for India, both the Left and the BJP are opposed to the deal and there does not seem to be a way forward. It is better for the Government to stop this drama.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Development, Left, Nuclear, Politics, Security

In a stinging criticism of the Indian Government, the Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasreen has left the country, and accused them of being hand-in-glove with the Muslim fundamentalists who have harassed her. In a talk with reporters on her way out of India, she bemoaned the fact that the Indian Government did not support her, harassed her and kept her under surveillance:

"If I disclose my destination my security will be compromised. My face has now become recognisable and I could be target of religious fundamentalist", Taslima said, adding that she will not hesitate to discuss what she said the traumatic experience she allegedly went through during various international seminars lined up in Europe in the next few months.
"I was put under tremendous stress but I could not speak out as I was under their (government) surveillance and could be harassed by them," she said in a choked voice.
"The government is no better than religious fundamentalists," she said.

Of course, we all know that the Indian Government was also under a lot of stress since her presence in the country was very uncomfortable for it. The Government could not have kicked her out because of the adverse publicity, but at the same time, could not allow her free reign because of the feared reaction from the Muslim community. So the Government essentially buckled down and made her a prisoner, unable to move out and kept in a Government security house.
Nobody comes out of this with any praise. The Congress Government in Andhra Pradesh did not prosecute the politicians who led an attack against her, the central Government even refused to giver here the barest of support, instead warning her that she should behave or else ... The Left Government refused to provide her security, instead kicking her out of Calcutta. Everybody has got a bad name out of this, and India is seeming like a country where you cannot speak freely without offending people, and where the Government will not protect you for political reasons. Shame on Manmohan Singh.

Labels: Congress, Governance, India, Law, Left, Muslim, Politics, Security

Over the course of the past 2 years, there has been an immense amount of literature and news over the dangers of bird flu, especially the H5N1 variety that is extremely destructive, and has caused human losses elsewhere. There is a lot of worry over the fact that a pandemic has not happened for a long time now, and with the current movement of humans all over the world, any spread of a human version will be a much higher killer than previous pandemics. What can cause such a thing to happen ? Well, the bird flu is mostly restricted to avian creatures, and spreads to humans very rarely. In addition, even if humans are affected due to contact with infected birds, the disease does not jump from person to person. It is feared that if the virus comes into close contact with the human influenza virus, and exchanges genetic material with the virus, it is possible that this may cause the bird flu virus may be capable of becoming capable of getting transferred from humans to other humans. This is one of the most feared scenarios for health care personnel, especially because while humans do not take human flu seriously, the bird flu variety is a much bigger killer.
In such a scenario, it is even more necessary that any case of bird flu may be handled with the utmost seriousness. However, seeing the spread of bird flu in West Bengal makes one believe that the West Bengal government has been in a serious case of dereliction of duty. After all, it has been known for some time that many districts of Bangladesh have been affected by bird flu, and given the close interaction between districts of Bangladesh and West Bengal, there should have been a much better contingency plan. Given the close interaction between man and fowl in many areas of West Bengal, the districts and panchayats should have been sensitized about the seriousness of the issue and about the steps that they should take in this regard.
Instead, the disease was allowed to fester, with initial reports of birds dying being hushed up, culling operations being not adequately backed up by security and authority (even in a case where it seems clear that this is a health emergency), inadequate provision of compensation to people whose birds have been culled (leading them to try and hide their birds), and a general lack of seriousness among the state's politicians and leaders. This was to the extent that the Central health minister criticized the efforts of the state (although she was hushed up later, no doubt with the Big Brother CPM putting pressure on the Congress leadership).
Now the disease has spread to 13 districts, and is on the doorstep of Kolkata, and one wonders whether the inept State Government will be able to do something at all.

Birdflu on Sunday spread to two more districts of West Bengal taking the number of affected districts to 13 out of a total 19 even as the state government said it was fully prepared to face any kind of adversity if any human being is found afflicted by the dreaded disease.
Kolkata Municipal Corporation has formed eight teams to to keep the metropolis insulated from birdflu. The teams were moving in different parts of the city to monitor the situation. The fear that the disease might hit Kolkata has aggravated since the spread to South 24 Parganas, part of which form the city's suburbs.

One can only hope that the Government is serious. It has also been reported that part of the reason that the Government is abstaining from taking the strict (and also seemingly harsh measures) is the fear of offending voters; if such an attitude characterizes the Government response, then god helps up. Instead, panchayats are an ideal medium to spread the message about the harmful affect of the disease, and how cooperation will help all. Couple this with a strong media campaign and adequate compensation, and things would be much better.

Labels: Community, Governance, Health, Left, Politics, Responsibility

It is quite clear that Taslima Nasreen is a person from whom most politicians want to stay away from. So, while the Prime Minister feels for a terrorist's family suspected of involvement in a terrorist attack in Britain, he is absolutely quiet about the hounding of a writer all over India. This whole attitude is what leads to hardening of majority opinion against the kind of secularism practised in India.
I consider myself a moderate Hindu, not very religious, but aware to a large extent about what happens all around. And one keeps on watching what the Government does when faced with a ticklish issue, and invariably the Government keeps on failing to remain even-handed when dealing with the same issues but across different scenarios.
So, do people remember the case of M F Hussain? He is the most famous painter from India, but he has been massively criticized by many for the paintings he has done of Hindu goddesses in the nude. He was threatened by right-wing Hindu organizations, and there was an instant uproar at the threats, with the Government and many sections of civil society reacting sharply at such threats (my opinion of MF Hussain however changed when he withdrew his movie, Meenaxi - A Tale of 3 cities after there were some protests by fundamentalist Muslim organizations. This sudden capitulation to fundamentalism was not protested or criticized).
And back to la affair Taslima Nasreen. Her works are controversial, and she is essentially a refugee from Bangladesh (there is a strong chance that she will be killed if she goes back to Bangladesh). The Indian Government has never claimed that she will not be allowed into India, and has issued her a visa regularly. If she is a person under threat by fundamentalists, then she deserves to be protected.
And what does the Government do ? First, the Left Front essentially pushes her out of Kolkata under the pressure of religious Fundamentalists, then ties itself in knots when questioned about this action. And of course, the usual clutch of critics do not say much when it comes to either the Left or such actions. And now that the author has herself admitted that the Left pushed her out, it is a black mark on the Left and CPM:

Bangladeshi author Taslima Nasreen on Monday said that she had not decided on her own to leave Kolkata but chose to remain silent about her controversial departure. "Why should I take a decision on my own? It did come to my mind that someone would come and kill me. Many like my writings, many others don't," she told a Bengali TV news channel.
"I want to return to Kolkata. I have not received any green signal as yet. I wonder from where the green signal will come", she told the channel in a telephonic interview from Delhi.

Given how the CPM is unlikely to do anything to imperil its Muslim support, it is unlikely that she will get a call from anybody in the CPM Government that she can come back. As it is, the Congress Government in the center is unable to decide what to do. Ideally, they would like her to go back to Europe, but that does not seem likely. Pushing her out of the country would make the Congress come under too much fire.
And one wonders about the impact this has on the majority community. Given the highly politicized society that we have now, if there is a perception that the Government (essentially, everybody else except for the BJP) is pandering to minority fundamentalists, then there is an equal reaction against such thoughts. Almost all the media coverage that I have read till now in mainstream magazines and newspapers also points out this contradiction on the part of the Congress, Left, left-leaning intellectuals, and the like. Such an attitude only reinforces the feeling that the Government will cave in whenever it is pushed by the thought of losing minority vote; at the same time, there is absolutely nothing in this position that can provide some support to moderate opinion (moderate opinion in turn gets marginalized). It's a never ending spiral, and one can be quite sure that in the next campaign, there will be more political push about the Congress pandering to minority fundamentalism and atleast a section of people will be convinced.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Discrimination, Governance, Law, Left, Minority, Muslim, Politics, Responsibility, Security

At a time when there is widespread condemnation of the going-ons in Nandigram over the last few days, there is a High Court direction to the West Bengal Government over the police firing on March 14th. That police firing was a widely condemned incident, and led to shockwaves through the country. The Left Front of course does not approve of anybody condemning any action of theirs, and so it was then. The Left Front claimed that this action was necessary to ensure the rule of law (sounds very familiar to the current series of incidents where the CPM sent in its goons to take control of the Nandigram area back to the hands of the CPM); and that is a normal policy of the Left. They claim to be conscience keepers of the nation, and are always ready to criticize the actions of others, but are totally unwilling to tolerate anybody else commenting on things they may have done.
In the incident of March 14th, a judicial line was breached that has not been breached before. Normally a CBI enquiry has to happen with the consent of the State Government, but in this case, the High Court ordered the CBI to start an enquiry; there was no way that the CPM would have ever agreed to such an enquiry (such enquiries only happen in other states and with other parties). Now, the High Court has given a further direction to the CBI for investigation and also ordered the State Government to pay compensation for an unjustifiable police action:

KOLKATA: The Calcutta High Court on Friday directed the CBI to continue the inquiry into March 14 Nandigram police firing and violence and submit a report within a month.
The court also said the state government should give compensation package to those killed, injured, raped and molested at Nandigram on March 14. It said that a compensation of no less than Rs 10 lakh be given to the next of kin of those killed, not less than Rs 5 lakh for those injured, not less than Rs eight lakh for those raped and not less than Rs two lakh for those molested.

It is pretty common knowledge that the Left Front and specifically the CPM regard West Bengal as their property, their area and do not brook any kind of opposition to them. They are liable to use arms against areas more sympathetic to the Trinamool Congress and the Congress. And the Congress is so beholden to the Left that it will not take any stand against the Left, or raise their voice against any such injustice.

Labels: Congress, Court, Governance, Investigation, Law, Left, Police, Politics, Security, Terrorism