The modern thinking Indian

How quickly the mighty can fall ! Lest that sound like gloating, it is not, it is something that some of the more clear-thinking of the Communist crowd in India must be thinking. Just a couple of years back, they were top of the Government of India. If they said 'nay' to a proposal by the Government, the Government would hem and haw and finally withdraw the proposal, and this was something that the Congress Government accepted as a price to pay for keeping their Government alive. However, it was the nuclear deal that provoked the Government to take a firm stand, and this time, they out-bluffed the Communists, and using all their money and negotiation powers, they managed to win the vote of confidence.
And then came elections 2009, with the Congress coming back to power with much higher numbers, and the Communists getting knocked off their top perch, with their number of seats down to 24. The Communist parties are strong contenders only in 2 states, West Bengal and Kerala, and in both of them, they suffered severe reverses.
The situation in West Bengal is right now pretty severe and potentially life-threatening for the Communist parties. West Bengal is a state that the Communists have been holding onto for decades now, and past predicted anti-Communist waves or Mamta waves have not managed to shake the Left citadel. And then the steps by the Communist leadership in West Bengal to shake their anti-development image (something that was affecting the population since industry is the one that provides employment, directly and indirectly); however, the Communist behaved in their own-ham handed manner and screwed up the entire SEZ debate all over the country.
The attitude of the Communist parties when they believe that they are in the right has always been much more arrogant than that of the other parties, and so it was in this entire 'land for industry' political mine-field. Net result ? They did not get the land or the industries, and scared off large chunks of the voting population (not helped by Mamta's fire-brand scare-mongering tactics). Combine that with the Sachar report that showed that the Communist love for minorities has only resulted in West Bengal being one of the least desirable states for minorities in terms of development.
Now, the Left parties are paying for it. Earlier they were losing municipal elections in the affected districts, then in the Lok Sabha elections, they lost a huge chunk of their seats, and now in the latest municipal elections, they lost badly to Mamta. In addition, Mamta's party are returning the usual fire-power of the CPM with their own force tactics, surprising the Left cadre. The Left is also facing the opposition of the Maoists, something that seems very surprising. And, at a time when the Left needs to be united to be facing such threats, the smaller parties such as the CPI, FB, and RSP, are using the current situation to highlight their grievances, and demand a greater say in the decision making of the Left Government.
In Kerala, on the other hand, the problems are more internal. Internal strife and dissidence is more of a problem of the BJP or the Congress, not so of parties such as the CPM. However, the continuing strife between the Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan and the state CPM strongman and state leader, Pinarayi Vijayan, continues and has been badly hurting the party. Vijayan is the ultimate politician, who has total control over the state unit of the CPM, except for the fact that V.S. Achuthanandan is the most popular leader in the party in Kerala, and the party cannot afford to drop him, or continue to subject him to ridicule from the same party (and even from his own ministers).
The problem got far worse when the Governor Kerala, R.S. Gavai, granted permission to the CBI to investigate the charges of corruption against Vijayan. The State Cabinet had decided (over the wishes of Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan) to advice the Governor not to recommend the sanction, and the Governor refused, landing the CPM in a hot case. The CPM cannot afford to have its strongman be accused of multi-crore corruption, and yet cannot also afford to have the spectacle of its own Chief Minister seemingly not being bound by the decision of the state body of the CPM.
In all this, the overall head, Prakash Karat, has lost support. He broke ranks with the Congress over the nuclear deal, something that a number of his own partymen are admitting was a mistake. What does the party do now ? If the current trends continue, the party risks losing its main base of West Bengal.

Labels: Communist, Corruption, CPM, Development, Dissidence, Election, Governance, Lok Sabha, Parliament, Politics

When the results for the 2009 Indian Lok Sabha (Parliament) elections were out, everybody was surprised by the scope of the Congress victory. The Left would have been shell-shocked by the scope of their reduction in seats and dramatic bad run in both West Bengal and Kerala, but it was the BJP that was most badly affected. The BJP, which once ruled India for 5 years, had just lost its second general elections (and both of them were lost under the leadership of Lal Krishna Advani - this election was his last attempt to be the Prime Minister of India, since he would be too old the next time).
For the first few weeks after the election, it seemed like the BJP was literally in shell-shock, the party quickly resisted a half-hearted attempt by Advani to resign as the leader of the party (given that there is no clear demarcated second line leader - the presumed next generation leader, Modi, could not carry his state to a complete sweep (which was almost a rejection for him), and all the others are in full fighting mode, it would have been difficult for the party to select a new leader agreeable to all). Murli Manohar Joshi tried to stake a brief claim, but that was quickly thwarted.
Now the voices in the party are being heard loud and clear, and there is a demand for an accountability of the defeat of the party. After all, the party has lost badly in many of the states that were supposed to be good for the party (or had been in the past), such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttrakhand, Delhi. For a party that was called the natural party of the middle class and the urban section, not being able to make a mark in Delhi and Bombay shows how much the party seems to have swayed away from being an effective contender for power.
In the last 2 days, there has been a sudden jump in the demand for accountability, and this seems to be related to the recent movements of Advani retaining the leadership of the party, Arun Jaitely becoming the leader in the upper house, and Sushma Swaraj being the deputy leader in the lower house. Other leaders who have been left out and who are seen as having been left out such as Jaswant Singh, Arun Shourie, and Yashwant Sinha have been demanding for more accountability and also that people who had a leadership role in the elections should have to bear the cross for the defeat (targeted at Jaitely, since he was the de-facto head of the campaign and the election effort).
If the BJP wants to come back to being taken as a serious contender for power, it needs to focus more on being an inclusive party. People, even those who were attracted by the earlier Hindutva campaign, are repelled by the hard-line stances on many areas such as the attack on people in a pub in Mangalore, the attacks on churches, the utterances of Varun Gandhi (and their not being condemned). The party needs to show how it can be seen as having a vision for the future, and needs to focus on development (and they have 2 chief ministers who are still there on the basis of their development platform - Modi in Gujarat, and Raman Singh of Chattisgarh).
The party also needs to be more realistic and pragmatic on their policies, as being seen on the side of the Left parties in opposing the nuclear deal was an idiotic posture that disillusioned many of their supporters, and their refusal to cooperate with the Government on accelerating some of the reforms after the exit of the Left parties was also a policy doomed to showing them in poor light. The party can still make good, but it requires a lot of inner look, and self-effort. There is discussion going around about problems in ties with the RSS, but the party needs to fine-tune those ties so that they can use the committed cadre of the RSS while not adopting the reprehensible policies of many of the sister organizations such as the VHP and the Bajrang Dal.

Labels: BJP, Election, Future, India, Politics, Responsibility

So, the bitterly contested election results of the Indian Lok Sabha (Parliamentary elections) are out, and it is the incumbent party, the Congress Party that is the decisive winner. During the course of the campaign and even during the month long multi-stage voting process, it seemed that there was a tight fight between the Congress and the BJP led camps. It was also projected that there would be an incredible fight for support from the smaller parties all over the country. This prospect saw these parties salivating over the prospect, and over the demands they would make from the major parties for this support.
So there was a constant tussle about whether existing partners are viable or not, and some parties made gambles. The Biju Janta Dal gambled that it would come back to power without the support of the BJP, the Congress gambled that it would need to build long-term in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (and in Bihar, it did not have much of a choice, since Lalu gave the party only 3 seats). The Congress gambled about going with the DMK even though Jayalalitha seemed to be the one riding the victory wagon. However, as the election result day came closer, nervousness gripped the Congress and it talked about changing partners, soliciting the support of the Left, looking to Nitish and Jayalalitha for support, and even trying to get closer to the Samajwadi Party.
The exit polls that started getting published once the stay on them was removed after the 13th (the last phase of election) were again off the mark, since they all projected that the Congress will have a narrow lead over the BJP and would need support from many parties. The BJP of course refused to believe such polls and stood fast in projecting that they will be the victors.
And then came the election results - and they were shocking to everyone. The Congress led poll, the UPA, is almost at the point of having half the seats, while the BJP led alliance, the NDA, is way behind. The Congress gained seats all over the country, with the party looking to reach 200 seats on its own (its best result since it started declining in the 1989 polls); it trounced the BJP in many states that the BJP should count as core constituencies such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttranchal, and made gains even in states such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujrat. The Congress made real good in states such as Andhra Pradesh, with the partners, the DMK, in Tamil Nadu.
However, the major surprises in this election happened in multiple states; in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress needs to get back its core constituency and it seems that the gamble it took seems to have paid off (it has got 20 seats on its own), in Maharashtra, the MNS seems to have bitten into the seats of the Shiv Sena and the BJP and led the Congress to victory. The biggest surprise has been the Left strongholds of Kerala and West Bengal. Kerala frequently changes between the Congress and the Communist, and in this election, the fight between the different factions of the Communist party propelled the Congress to victory. The biggest surprise seems to have been in West Bengal where the Congress combination with Mamta Banerjee blew away the Communist party in the state where the Communists have held sway since 1977.
What are some of the conclusions from this election:
- Manmohan Singh re-emerges as the Congress Prime Minister with a much stronger support and with less interference from supporting parties
- The BJP leader LK Advani will slowly fade away - he is already 81 years old and unlikely to be the leader in the next election
- Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are the unquestioned leaders of the country now - even people such as me who do not believe in dynastic based leadership have to acknowledge that they have led their party to a genuine victory
- Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik are new emblems of victory, with strong shows of performance and low individual corruption levels
- The Left, having been used to a much stronger influence in the last Parliament will be a pale self with questions about the leadership becoming much stronger
- Mayawati has faced a severe setback in her quest for national leadership; the same goes for former influential leaders such as Mulayam Singh Yadav (who suffered after inducting Kalyan Singh), Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan
- Economic policies and world related policies should remain the same and in fact become more clear and without the holding back due to the Left

Labels: BJP, Congress, Election, India, Left, Mayawati, Parliament, Politics, Ram Vilas Paswan

The case of Varun Gandhi and his detention by the Mayawati Government is reaching a critical point. As a lot of people may be aware, Varun Gandhi, in a speech made some time back, sought to inflame people by speaking against the Muslim community. It is difficult to justify what he is stated to have said, since his speech was supposed to have been very provocative (and I am sure that people will point out that other people have made equally provocative or more provocative speeches and got off lightly, but that is a separate matter). He was condemned by wide sections of the press and political parties, and the Election Commission took note of what he had said (but did not have powers to do much about a speech).
However, what happened next was the troubling part. An FIR was lodged against him, and he was taken in custody. Next, the Mayawati Government stated that it would lodge a case under the National Security Act (meant to be used against terrorists or habitual dangerous criminals) against Varun. And soon enough, the UP Government filed a case against him, using the violence that happened when Varun was being lodged in the jail after surrender.
The NSA is an Act with strict provisions, such as "Under the provisions of the NSA, a person cannot get bail atleast for six months"; if this had happened, Varun would have had to remain in jail till elections are over. However, there is a right to appeal in the Supreme Court, and also the state advisory panel takes a decision on the persons against whom the NSA has been filed. In both cases, the Mayawati Government has not been able to justify the harsh measure used for what is basically a 'hate speech' (not to reduce the significance of what Varun had said, but there are criminals and terrorists against whom the NSA has not been applied). Here is an excerpt of what the state advisory panel stated:

The Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh did not apply its mind and violated cannons of natural justice in invoking National Security Act on BJP leader Varun Gandhi raising a question of bias, says the state advisory board which struck down the NSA against him. The Board said "there was non-application of mind and breach of rules of natural justice" by the authorities which raises a question of "bias" and "legal malafides" for invoking NSA against the 29-year-old BJP leader who was not supplied with the copy of the order and material, including the CD of the alleged hate speeches which were the basis for taking stringent action.

The board further points out that the District Magistrate, the competent authority to pass the NSA order, based these orders on 2 FIR's that were not filed by anybody else but the DM (to re-state, the DM filed 2 FIR's, and then used these 2 FIR's to show as evidence to pass the NSA orders).
Most people have no doubt that the reason that the DM passed the NSA order was so that the Mayawati Government, in order to shore up its secular credentials, could show that it was aggressive in protecting the interests of minorities. While I cannot condone the speech by Varun, it is equally hard to agree when somebody twists laws and justice for furthering their own agenda and scoring political points.

Labels: BJP, Court, Crime, Election, Mayawati, Minority, Police, Politics, Punishment, Secular

National parties have always had problems with the concept of partners in different states, since the concept of having a partner who is strong in a state is that the national party has to play second fiddle in the specific state. The BJP faces this to some extent in Punjab (where the Akali Dal believes that it is the stronger party), in Bihar (where the JD(U) is the stronger party), in Maharashtra (where the playing second fiddle to the Shiv Sena is something that the party does not really like), in Orissa (where the senior member, Naveen Patnaik's BJD moved away suddenly); however, the BJP has less scope for such problems in the southern states where it needs to expand since it does not have much of a base in Andhra, Tamil Nadu, or Kerala. Similarly, states such as West Bengal are out of its reach for some time.
However, the Congress is running into far more problems with respect to its alliance, especially as it publicly (and in full media awareness) pitches for more allies post-results. For 5 years, the Congress lived with alliance partners without much problems except for the Left (whose morals always caused them to have problems with the policies of the Left). However, as it approached the election, it started shedding allies, until it is primarily right now left with just a few - Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and IUML in Kerala.
In other states, the basic problem is with having to search for allies who are either in competition with the Congress, or are in competition with the current allies of the Congress. So, for example when Rahul Gandhi suggested that the Congress is open to new allies, he was scouting for support from the left, from Nitish Kumar's JD(U), from the AIADMK, from Naveen Patnaik's BJD, he immediately ran into trouble. The Congress is allied with Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, and in both Kerala and Bengal, the Congress is pitted in a battle with the Communist Parties. Mamta did not appreciate the comments by Rahul inviting support from the Left, and neither will the DMK about any potential support from Jayalalitha. Similarly, Lalu Prasad Yadav will certainly not be happy about any overtures to Nitish Kumar.
In states such as Orissa, the Congress is in bitter competition with the BJD, and similarly with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. It will difficult for it to accept support from these parties, since the state units of the Congress will find it difficult to support these changed circumstances, but they will not have an option if the Congress needs support for the Central Government. And a number of such parties will provide support since they will also get their pound of flesh from the Government formation. The next few weeks will be interesting to watch, people will truly understand the meaning of the phrase, 'nothing is impossible'.

Labels: Alliance, BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, India, Left, Parliament, Politics

This election (the Indian 2009 election) has seen a much more pronounced push for knowing more about candidates, what their past record, what their wealth levels are. The concept is that an informed decision makes citizens more aware, and if it forces voters to think about the choices they are making, then all the effort has been worth it.
One problem that ordinary people feel is that it is difficult for them to find information about their candidates; or that they don't feel like making the effort to find this information. As a result, there are a number of forums that are trying to make this information (from the disclosures made by candidates while filing their campaign applications) public. Here is one of them:
myneta.info
From the site:
35 States/UTs, 543 Constituencies, 5501 Candidates and counting...
The primary source for the data used for these reports is the sworn affidavits provided by the candidates themselves. Sheer volume of data that has to be read from the affidavits that are often poorly scanned and the lightening speed at which these reports have to be brought out makes it quite difficult to ensure accuracy of every bit of data. In case of any discrepancy in our reports vis a vis the original affidavit of any candidate, the original affidavit should be considered accurate. If you notice any discrepancies between affidavit and our report kindly let us know and we will fix them on our end as soon as possible.

Labels: 2009, Affidavit, Election, India, Information, Lok Sabha, Politics

In the last election, the NDA was the dominant party, and with the 'India Shining' campaign, it seemed that nothing could stop the BJP led front from coming to power. However, the people of India had different ideas, and did not give the BJP the required number of seats so that the BJP could come to power as a part of the NDA. It was the Congress that had a larger number of seats; it was at that time that the Congress, probably for the first time in its long existence, developed the ability to form coalitions. The Congress looked far and wide, and allied itself with a number of parties that would have earlier opposed the Congress (with some of the alliances being before the election, and some after the election). So the Congress allied itself with people as varied as Sharad Pawar's NCP, the Bihar parties of Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, DMK, PMK, and a few other smaller parties. More importantly, the Left parties, who are sworn allies of the Congress in Kerala and West Bengal were also induced to be supporting parties due to prevent the coming to power of the BJP.
Most of these alliances existed almost till the end of the Congress term, with remaining in power being a great inducement for all involved. However, these stable alliances now seem totally in disarray as we are now in the midst of polls. Take a sample of what one of the most trusted allies, Laloo Prasad Yadav says (link to article):

The Railway Minister, who all along has maintained that Manmohan Singh was the UPA candidate, on Tuesday sang a different tune against the backdrop of his party RJD and the Congress going their own ways to fight the elections in Bihar. "UPA is a confederation of secular parties and does not belong only to the Congress. We will sit together (after the elections are over) to chalk out a common minimum programme and in consultation with all our partners select a leader who will be the prime minister," Prasad told reporters in Patna.
Asked about the strained relations between the RJD-LJP alliance in Bihar and the Congress, Prasad said, "These things are natural during elections. Do you expect us to worship each other. There is a famine of candidates in the Congress, which is busy rebuilding and reviving its organisation. But despite the presence of Congress candidates in the fray in large numbers against nominees of secular parties the NDA will be wiped out," he said.

In addition, everybody knows how the Left is already in open opposition to the Congress, and has been so ever since Manmohan Singh made his effort to push for the India-US nuclear deal. The UPA has also other constituents such as the PMK, and has managed to make enmity with both Mayawati and Mulayam Singh.
Part of the reason for this strain in relations, especially in the Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, is the need for Congress to remake itself in these states. It was in the 1989 election that the Congress downfall in these key states became apparent, to the extent that the Congress is almost non-existent in these states. It is the dream of Congress strategy makers to make the Congress more powerful in these states again, and the only way they can do that is to regain the support of many caste groups that were with them, and are now with these parties. It is also for the same reason that the caste groups are fine with allying with the Congress as long as the Congress plays second fiddle, and gains ground in other states.
The irony of the disintegration of the UPA as a pre-election alliance is that it was the BJP that has been suffering the jolts earlier. They were deserted by Chandrababu Naidu earlier, and on the eve of this election, it was the close partner, Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janta Dal who deserted the BJP (and it was the Congress which was being gleeful when all this happened).
However, does something really change ? If the elections throw up a hung parliament, one can be sure that these parties will come together, as the need to throw up a 'secular' alternative to the BJP will still remain as a glue to make sure that they retain their power.

Labels: Alliance, BJP, Caste, Conflict, Congress, Election, India, Laloo, Left, Parliament, Political, Politics, Ram Vilas Paswan

The Jammu and Kashmir issue remains complicated. The state was signed into the Indian Union in difficult circumstances, at a time when Pakistani invaders wanted to conquer the state for eventual integration into Pakistan. At the time, the Maharajah of the state finally changed his stance from trying to be independent and signed the instrument of Accession and the state officially became a part of the Indian Union. The State however had a status that was separate from almost any other state in the Union (some states have special status that prevent outsiders from being able to buy land and so on, but no other state has the level of autonomy that this state has), and which is something that continues to irritate many Indians. The basic question remains as to why the state has been granted the special level of autonomy ? It is proclaimed that it is so because it has a special character, but the basic doubt remains as to whether this is because it is the only Muslim majority state in the Indian Union. However, this is an endless debate, and just like many other issues, it is very doubtful as to whether these provisions will ever be repealed.
The last 1 year has seen many strange things happening in the Valley. The Congress was in command, with Ghulam Nabi Azad being the Chief Minister (as part of the agreement with the PDP of the Mufti where the Chief Minister's post revolves between the PDP and the Congress 50:50). However, like similar arrangements in many other parts of the country, this one also had its strains, with the PDP not particularly satisfied once it had to hand over the Chief Ministership to the Congress (and the PDP never liked Ghulam Nabi Azad). And then the Amarnath issue blew up.
At some time in the past, the High Court had ordered the Government to improve the facilities for devotees visiting the Amarnath shrine in Kashmir, and eventually the J & K Government under him made a cabinet decision in that regard by transferring some amount of land to the Amarnath committee for preparing temporary structures; however, this decision caused a major upheaval in the valley. Separatist sentiment got invoked, and even the PDP essentially backed away and Azad also resigned. However, once the transfer of land was put on hold, residents of the Jammu area launched a major agitation. For a long time, the residents of Jammu have felt like second class citizens. With the Kashmir valley being a political concern due to its Muslim majority, Jammu has always felt that it has been treated as an unequal partner. It was the cancellation of the transfer of land that somehow made these sentiments burst out (there must have been a lot of incitement, but there was a genuine display of anger by people as well), and an agitation that showed no way out for the Congress Government forced it to bend towards the Jammu agitators and transfer the land to the Committee.
In this environment, it was felt that elections would not be a good idea, what with separatist sentiment having been very vocal in the previous months, but the elections surprised everyone. Inspite of calls by the Hurriyat Conference and the separatists, people turned out to vote in large numbers. It is speculated that this voting should not be seen as an under-cutting of the sentiment towards freedom, but more about local governance issues. I believe that we should see this as a right step, since elections are meant to show that the will of the people is paramount in electing politicians who can govern, and the election of the National Conference young leader (and a former Central External Affairs Minster of State) Omar Abdullah is a step in the right direction. Even though the NC is tainted with having helped cause the rise in azaadi sentiment by having rigged the elections in 1987, it is a party that has always seen the future of Kashmir with India. If Omar Abdullah delivers good governance, it will go a long way in destroying the separatist sentiment.

Labels: Congress, Democracy, Discrimination, Election, Governance, Kashmir, NC, Problems, Responsibility, Separatist, Terrorism

For some time now, many supporters and those slightly leaning towards the BJP are very troubled by the stand that the BJP has been taking towards the nuclear deal. In the beginning, there was a lot of waffling towards the deal, with Advani once urging the party to review the deal. In addition, Brajesh Mishra, seen as close to the former Prime Minister and tall leader, Atal Behari Vajpayee, has come out in open support to the deal (even though the rest of the party is shocked by his stand). For most of the middle class supporters of the deal (especially for those who care about this topic), the deal is making the best of a bad situation, and it enables closeness towards the US, something that is seen as natural to India (left leaning people will disagree, but if you leave aside the blinkers of a non-aligned world, would you rather be more friendly with the US than with say states such as Iran / Venezuela / Russia / China).
The BJP / NDA must be seeing the current separation between the Left and the Congress as a chance to bring the Government down, and then do what ? Even now, I believe that the BJP is no closer to getting to power. It will win in the states where it won the state elections, but there are vast stretches of the country where it will come a cropper, such as Uttar Pradesh where Mayawati is reigning supreme, in states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the same level of development has not happened as in Gujrat. And in the current horse-trading for getting votes in Parliament, Mayawati seems to be getting all the publicity. She is the one to whom many undecided MP's are going towards. Read this:

Sources said the saffron party is in a fix and fears of a backlash in either situation of the government winning or losing the trust vote. "NDA is nowhere in the picture. If the government loses, the credit goes to Mayawati and the Third front. If it wins then Mulayam would emerge as a winner and strategist," a leader of one of the NDA constituents said.
In the BJP camp, leaders fear that UPA losing the vote would certainly be a booster for Mayawati camp but if the government wins the trust vote, BJP would be accused by parties like BSP of conniving with the Congress to bail them out, sources added.

The BJP currently is not any closer to getting more allies to support it. What it really should do is to let the Government survive, lurch from one problem to another as it deals with having to pay back all the political debt it took onto win this vote, and let voter disenchantment with high inflation keep on getting stoked. Further, it really needs to get more time to set its house in order in the northern states, and re-activate the fames Sangh network in Uttar Pradesh. Such time would also some fissures to appear in Mayawati's support base among the forward castes.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Nuclear, Politics

The Left has always modeled itself on its adherence to political probity, and to good norms (in the process considering itself the party with the highest morals); of course it is another matter that people who cannot stand the policies of the Left (and its pandering to an out-dated economic model and to its adherence to a blind model of secularism (you just have to remember their threatening the Samajwadi Party with the loss of the Muslim vote if it supported the Congress) consider it the most morally bankrupt party. And of course, its dictatorial and violent ways in Bengal shows up its true nature. But this particular example takes the cake.
In the Indian system of parliamentary democracy, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha is seen to be an impartial judge, and even though a lot of politics go into the election of the Speaker, once in, the speaker is seen as the most unbiased political person, and specially not supporting the policies of the party from which he was elected. Many speakers in the past have tried to adhere to this policy (and some have succeeded to some degree). The current speaker, Somnath Chaterjee, has always claimed that he is now not a Left party member, but the speaker, the person who no longer will profess any political beliefs.
So, how come such a situation has come to pass that the speaker is being told by Comrade Karat that he is now a Left party member and should withdraw from the post of the speaker. This is crass bad political behavior, trying to force a person to resign who is supposed to be now above political beliefs:

Despite the pressure mounted on him by the CPM leadership to resign his post immediately, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee remains defiant as he questioned their very decision to go along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). An angry Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) general secretary Prakash Karat, according to party sources, has asked Politburo member Sitaram Yechury to convince Chatterjee about quitting the Speaker's post, which was the result of an understanding that the Left had with the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) when it decided to prop it up in 2004.
However, Chatterjee, who has had meetings with Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Petroleum Minister Murli Deora during the last two days, is insisting he would give up his Lok Sabha membership also if he had to quit the Speaker's post. The Speaker is believed to have told the CPM leadership that he would not be in a position to vote against the UPA in the Lok Sabha. Chatterjee, who will be 79 on July 25, is also arguing that such a move would cast a shadow on the Speaker's office as it is supposed to be above party politics.

Somehow, in this case, one does not think that it is the loss of the chair that is worrying Chaterjee as much as the fact that suddenly he is being forced to resign to support a cause for which he was not consulted.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Morality, Nuclear, Parliament, Politics

Who would have believed that something like this could happen even a month back ? When last year the Prime Minister had declared that his (actually, the Congress party of Sonia Gandhi) was not a one-issue Government, it was taken for granted that with the Left putting a veto on the nuclear deal, and with the allies unwilling to sacrifice the Government for a nuclear deal, the nuclear deal was as good as dead. And even recently, when the Government again raised the issue, it seemed like with the Left unwilling to back down, the deal would not happen, and the entire issue would be political posturing.
And then, suddenly, like a Jack in the Box suddenly popping out, the Congress and the Prime Minister appear to have outsmarted the Left. With the Left even otherwise not leaving a chance to criticize the Government over many issues, the Government must have been chafing at the tone used by the Left (the Congress, even in a coalition Government is never really tolerant of the people providing support). And the political movement by the Congress and the Samajwadi Party must have surprised the CPM and their other left brothers the maximum. They have been so used to being able to turn the heat on the Government that even the slightest hint of alternate support from the SP will be enough to make the Congress stand up and look the left in the eye.
And this is what precisely seems to have happened. The Congress will appreciate the support provided by the 39 MP's of the SP (vs. the 59 MP's of the Left); at the same time, the SP is in a bad state in its home state of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati's political stars look to be continually on the rise, and the SP really needs an alliance to prevent the split of its votes. And one has to admire its political cunning - in order to avoid the charge of being anti-Muslim and get a reason for changing its stand to a nuclear-deal supporter, it used a meeting with APJ Kalam to showcase as a reason for changing its stand. He is a former President and a missile man, so his support is important to justify a change in stand, and he is a middle class and educated Muslim icon, so this will help mollify its Muslim base.
Where does this leave the Left ? It has an alltime high of 59 MP's, but Kerala is famous for changing its political mind quickly, and the Left suffered some major reversals in West Bengal local elections, thus ensuring that early next elections could see a much reduced Left MP count. Even now, it could almost seem like that they are no longer relevant.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Muslim, Nuclear, Reform

In an election result that has the potential to have an effect on the fortunes of 2 of the largest political parties in India, the hard fought Karnataka elections has seen the coming of the BJP to the cusp of power in a South Indian state. Till now the BJP has always been castigated as the party of North India, and that South India would always be out of its grasp. However, ever since the last election when the BJP became the largest political party (until the Congress merged some breakaway legislators), the BJP has always been seeing this dream as around the corner. First it agreed to support the JD(S) for half the term, and then when its turn came, it was betrayed by the same party (not something knew to the party since Mayawati has done the same to the party earlier).
There are many points that the BJP can claim with this victory:
- The claim of finally having broken into the states of South India
- Being able to beat back infighting and cashing in on a sympathy wave (so even though the BJP was part of the previous Government, it did not get tainted with any anti-incumbency wave
- Continuing in a string of victories after the morale enhancing Gujarat victory; something that is likely to keep the morale of the cadres high
- The emergence of another strong BJP leader in the form of B S Yeddyurappa who fought off all intra-party dissidence (for the time being at least)

The Congress will have to face some questions after this defeat:
- The Congress can claim that their vote share remained intact, but the fact is that all the vote shift was in favor of the BJP and the Congress was not able to capitalize on being in power in the state for the last 6 months during President's rule
- Their much vaunted winning claim of the Gandhi family took another knock, but since nobody will say this inside the party, you can be sure that all other scapegoats will be found in the form of inability of the Central Government to control inflation as well as appearing weak on the internal security angle
- Any hope that they had of trying to cross the Left party on some reforms as well as the nuclear deal will be further out of the window


The JD(S) has had a massive reduction in its seats, and corresponding credibility on the political scene.

However, not everything is rosy for the BJP. They will be ruling with a razor thin majority, and any strong dissidence is bound to cause problems. In addition, the BJP over-promised in terms of free power, easier loans, lower price food, etc, and will have to arrange for funds to pay for all this. It also needs to show a better mode of governance.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Election, Politics

India has always had a problem regarding Bangladeshi immigrants, including about deciding what to do with them. In the states neighboring Bangladesh, particularly Assam, this has caused major problems including a long agitation against their presence. The increasing influx of these immigrants has also caused changes to the demography of many districts in these states. Even if they are immigrating for the purpose of economic betterment, no country can accept an unprecedented influx of outsiders, and for a long time, the security agencies have been claiming that they are a security problem as well. Bangladesh has active terrorist bases inside it, and many of recent blasts in India have been blamed on these groups by the police and intelligence agencies.
In addition, the intelligence agencies believe that these migrants are susceptible to being picked up the terrorist groups and made active members who will connive at planning for blasts, being members of active terrorist cells as well as providing support as sleepers. Over a period of time, various courts (including the Supreme Court) and even the Central Government appointed Governors have asked for a policy to urgently identify these immigrants and deport them back to Bangladesh.
The only problem in all this mixture is the Congress which is actively playing with the security of the country; it believes that these immigrants are a natural support base and hence the Congress does all it can to prevent them from being deported, and actually local leaders will help in getting them Government papers such as rations cards, voter identity cards and so on.
In the latest such indication, the practically useless and ineffective home minister, Shivraj Patil, is getting into blatant lying, claiming something that official letters sent by his ministry say otherwise:

While Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil on Monday termed Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s revelation about the Centre’s controversial suggestion to states to set up detention centres for illegal Bangladeshi immigrants as “not true”, official records obtained by The Indian Express contradict his claims.
Minutes of the meetings of the Nodal Authority, under the chairmanship of Union Home Secretary on January 24, 2007 and April 25, 2007, to review the progress of detection and deportation of illegal Bangladeshi migrants, clearly show that the Centre wanted the states to set up detention centers for illegal immigrants.
In the April 25 meeting that year, the Union Home Secretary had even told the participants that the “primary objectives” of the deportation exercise was to effectively control illegal immigration “by instilling a sense of fear and insecurity” in their minds. Raje said today: “It is very clear from the communication sent by the Ministry of Home Affairs in February, March and May 2007 that there was a conscious decision of the Union Home Ministry that state governments are required to set up detention centers for illegally staying foreigners pending their deportation.”

Right now, the Congress wants to distance itself from any such communication that it actually asked for deportation of Bangladeshi migrants, since this could have an impact on its vote base; while the priority should be to do whatever it needs to enhance the security of the country; the Prime Minister, as the head of this Government, is literally responsible for playing with the security of the country for electoral gains.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Court, Election, Governance, India, Law, Muslim, Politics, Security, Terrorism

Nandigram has been the epicenter of trouble for the Communist West Bengal Government (along with Singur). The Government had proposed to acquire land in the region for the purpose of setting up industry, and this had landed the whole region in problem. Whatever be the purpose of the Government to increase the level of industrialization (and I had looked upon this move with favor, since industrialization and proper compensation for acquiring land does benefit farmers), the next reaction of the CPM regime was shocking.
The Government faced opposition from a collection of different parties and groups, and yet their objective should have been to maintain law and order. However, the Government and Left parties instead treated this as a person affront against them (and the involvement of the Mamta Banerjee led Trinamool Congress only caused more problems for them). There was a massive confrontation between the armed cadres of the CPM (along with the full support of the state police) against the villagers and their support, and eventually it reached such a stage that there was a wave of condemnation against the tactics of the CPM.
Well, it seems like all those tactics have rebounded on the CPM, since the Trinamool has gained control over a zilla parishad, maybe a watershed in the politics of West Bengal:

In a jolt to the CPI(M)-led Left Front, Trinamool Congress defeated its candidates in trouble-torn Nandigram in the three-tier panchayat elections in West Bengal. The Front also faced rout in three zilla parishad seats in Singur to Trinamool Congress candidates.
Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress wrested control of zilla parishad in East Midnapur where trouble-torn Nandigram is located. It won 32 of the 53 seats, results of which were declared so far. It is the first time that Trinamool Congress gained control over a zilla parishad, the main decision-making body in the district.

I don't believe that there is an inherent opposition to the policies of industrialization that the West Bengal government is following, but the Government seems to believe that it is in China, where any policy can be ruthlessly enforced and any opposition suppressed.

Labels: Community, Development, Election, Left, Politics

In a move that indicates that the Government has apparently not done its homework on getting its allies on board on the move to introduce the Women's Reservation Bill, the Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) (whose head Laloo Prasad Yadav and other leaders are part of the Government) has opposed the move by the Government and accused it of taking the action without consulting its allies. The Mandal parties want the women's quota to have sub-quotas for OBC's and Muslims, something that the other parties and many sections of the Congress support base will oppose:

The Rashtriya Janata Dal on Wednesday upped its opposition to the women's reservation Bill threatening to withdraw support to the UPA government if the legislation was not amended to provide sub-quotas for OBCs and Muslims within the generic gender quota in legislatures.
In a development which undercut the PM's effort to dispel the perception of a split in the UPA over the women's quota, the RJD accused the Congress leadership of rushing through the Bill without hammering out a consensus. RJD's aggressive posture was yet another instance of how OBC resentment over the "present form" of women's quota had strained ties between allies. Early on, RJD leadership fielded party MP Devendra Yadav to warn the Congress leadership not to mistake its protest to be just pyrotechnics. Yadav said his party would go to any extent to thwart the passage of the already-delayed legislation.

This reaction was somewhat expected, but there are unexpected movements also happening. First, the RJD is a part of the ruling coalition and is part of the Government, so the fact that it is complaining about the introduction of the legislation means that discussions about this long-delayed bill really did not move to a conclusion.
In addition, there seems to be a sudden amount of tension between the natural allies of SP and the CPM, given that they are on opposite sides of the Bill. Reservation in legislature on the basis of caste and religion are very touchy subjects and will be the first thing to be opposed in court as being unconstitutional.

Labels: Caste, Congress, Election, Law, Left, Parliament, Politics, Reservations, Women

India's political parties have typically used the mass star power of famous actors / actresses to get seats, and nothing else. It is only in the Southern states where famous actors / actresses plot to translate their star power into electoral power, but for the rest, getting stars has been nothing but a game to get more votes.
In a major setback for the Congress in Bombay, their MP in the Mumbai North constituency and the film star Govinda has decided to quit politics. When Govinda was brought into the electoral race in the last elections of 2004, there was a large amount of criticism of the Congress for this move, given that Govinda was going through a lean patch in his movies, and he had not shown any inclinations towards political activities before this. No matter, the need was to defeat former minister Ram Naik of the BJP, and that was dutifully done. But now, everything gets reversed.

Actor-MP Govinda's decision to quit politics has shocked Congress activists in his constituency, Mumbai north. "We worked hard for him during his election and now we feel let down," said a senior party worker. Govinda had told TOI on Friday that he wanted to quit politics "like Amitabh Bachchan".
Many Congress workers, however, feel that it was wrong to give a ticket to a political novice like Govinda in the first place. "He had nothing to do with our party, but still our leaders overlooked the claim of loyal workers and gave him the ticket," said a former MLA. A Congress office-bearer said Govinda was fielded only to defeat senior BJP leader and former Union minister Ram Naik. Not only was Naik getting repeatedly elected from Mumbai north, he was also making the constituency BJP's bastion. Congress had virtually no presence. It was only because a popular actor like Govinda was fielded that Congress could wrest the seat from Naik, he said.

Obviously, the next time when the Congress goes to get votes in this constituency, they will have to defend their last MP and the fact that voters in the constituency were severely disgruntled over his performance. Govinda has been seen to be hardly doing anything for the population of his constituency, or doing anything that a MP does.
In addition, when workers and potential candidates see a unknown person suddenly becoming the candidate, then they are disgruntled. It is a different matter if the person has shown the capacity to work hard (like the late Sunil Dutt had done for the Congress). But selecting people just for their charisma is bound to fail in the long run.

Labels: Congress, Development, Election, Morality, Politics, Responsibility

Well, the Gujrat elections have come and gone, and in the process delivered a mighty blow to the grand old decayed party of India, also known as the Congress party. From the start, the Congress (ans almost the entire media) has declared that the Gujrat election will be the one surprise that will hasten the end of the BJP; what with the development slogan being false, by trying to pit the caste factions against each other; by trying to scare the people about Modi being a person who can get people killed without any worry. They in fact have been lulled into setting themselves up for this shock, believing the media that the election is theirs for the taking, that the BJP defectors will cause immense losses to the BJP. In the end, there was the ultimate weapon of the dynasty with Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi entering the fray and seeking to make it a Modi vs. Sonia battle.
Well, this one was comprehensively beaten. Just like the UP elections, it is pretty clear that the dynasty are not capable of fetching votes for the Congress; they can only do it if they build up strong local leaders who can bring up an organization. And yet, it is impossible for the Congress to either agree that their dependence on the dynasty is a failed endeavor, or that having a state leader strong enough to win the state is impossible. The Congress High Command lives in the perpetual thought that only of each state has multiple leaders consistently fighting each other will none of them be in the position of challenging the central leadership. However, no one in the Congress will say this to the Madam:

With the elections having gone horribly wrong for Congress, questions are sure to be asked if the party leadership erred in allowing the contest to be framed as a Sonia versus Modi affair. The post-facto wisdom may appear correct because the humiliation has taken the sheen off the party’s mascot, exposing the limits of the dynasty’s charisma. But the risk was unavoidable considering the complete electoral irrelevance of party’s bigwigs as well as the fact that its leaders in Gujarat are not a factor outside their districts.
Screaming from under the Congress rubble in Gujarat and its bare leadership cupboard is the party’s abject dependence on an individual. As a party strategist, using the room for an honest assessment with the polls out of the way, said, "Never before had the Congress appeared so desperately dependent on her."

And of course it is now open season on the strategy. The media is all over the disasters in the Congress strategy, what with the direct attack on Modi, the reliance on BJP rebels, the pushing of a campaign to portray Modi's development efforts as false; and most of all, the Congress keeping on relying on the wrong set of advisors. Now if the Himachal election also throws the Congress out, it will be a disaster for the Congress, and will cause shake-out to the extent of the Congress president of that state; nothing can touch Sonia Gandhi.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Election, Minority

Just around 20 days after the BJP and the JD(S) parted ways in Karnataka, and that too after a bitter quarrel with Deve Gowda hurling all sorts of abuse against the BJP, and the BJP calling the entire JD(S) a party of back-stabbers and betrayers, it seems likely that these 2 parties will form an alliance as if nothing has happened, with the JD(S) letting the BJP have the Chief Ministership of the state.
This is a tremendous deal for the BJP, since they have never been close to power in any of the Southern States (in fact, they do not have much of an electoral base in Kerala and Tamil Nadu).And it is even more pronounced because the BJP has been in a sort of slow melt-down after it lost power nationally in 2004, and it was a massive blow to the party when it became clear that the JD(S) was not willing to transfer power to the BJP and would break the agreement.
Well, if things now go according to plan, and if the Governor is able to overcome the feelings of the Congress and bring back the assembly from the suspended state it is in currently, then the BJP will finally have its first Chief Minister from a southern state.

The BJP staked claim to form a Government in Karnataka after its former coalition partner JD-S did a somersault, pledging its support to the saffron party-led regime.
BJP sought revival of the state Assembly which has been kept under suspended animation following the collapse of the JD(S)-BJP coalition ministry headed by H D Kumaraswamy. The BJP had then withdrawn support after the JDS failed to honour the power sharing pact. Strengthening the BJP's claims for government formation, former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy submitted a letter to the Governor extending support to the saffron party.

And all of these machinations and dealings are all to do with party politics. When the time came for Kumaraswamy to give up power to the BJP, his father Deve Gowda was unwilling to give up power, and using an excuse of bad behavior by BJP ministers, the transfer never happened and the assembly was suspended. Part of the calculations would have to do with trying to woo the Congress to extend support. Such a move would have enabled the JD(S) to remain in power.
However, the Karnataka Congress believes that Deve Gowda is an unstable ally and forming a Government with him was not a very profitable opportunity; and soon the assembly was frozen. What the Deve Gowda and clan had not counted on was the second line of leaders and MLA's. Whether it be Kumaraswamy or the BJP's man B S Yediyurappa who was the Chief Minister, the MLA's would be able to make their living in the same way. So a state of suspended animation without a Government was no good. And so, with MLA's becoming restive, some of them approached the Congress.
This was scary to the JD(S) leadership since given enough incentive to the MLA's, if they split off, the JD(S) would be dramatically reduced as a force. And hence this sudden support to the BJP.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Election, Law, Politics

For some time now, it seemed like the internal dispute within the CPM over the nuclear deal was preventing the left from carrying out the ultimatum to the Congress Government. It was quite clear that there was a lobby within the West Bengal unit (which had both the Chief Minster and Jyoti Basu) speak up for nuclear energy and even proclaim that relations with the US were important for the country; as opposed to the push by the politburo and Prakash Karat for a no-holds barred line against the nuclear deal even if it means bringing down the Government. And when pushed to whether this means that the left is agreeable to the BJP coming back to power if the Government falls, the left states that it treats both the BJP and US imperialism on the same level. At the same time, all the public comments by the Congress are that it will not favor going back and will push for the deal. Maybe they feel that if they go back, they will have no face left and will be pushed by the left again and again over other issues as well.

Poll clouds seem to have darkened further with CPM veteran Jyoti Basu on Saturday ruling out the possibility of any compromise on Left opposition to the US-India nuclear deal. Endorsement of the hard line on the deal is likely to quicken poll calculations of the UPA as the Left axe begins to descend on the Manmohan Singh government.
As reported by TOI on Saturday, Marxists are thinking in terms of withdrawing support if their threat against holding negotiations with IAEA goes unheeded. The deliberations in Kolkata indicated that CPM general secretary Prakash Karat's hard line had prevailed, and will strip the UPA-Left committee on the nuclear deal of even the token relevance it has. "The committee will continue as long as it is allowed to," a senior Congress source said.

At the same time, recent comments by various US officials had indicated that the time needed for the deal was reducing and various Indian ministers had indicated that they were committed to the deal going through. In addition, the Congress seems to be moving into election mode (and so are other parties). Seems like the time is over, unless the CPM is playing a massive bluff and bluster card.

Labels: Congress, Election, India, Left, Nuclear, Politics

Around an year back, the Congress won a major victory in Jharkand when they managed to topple the BJP Government and bring in a Government led by Madhu Koda. Now, Jharkand is not an easy state to manage. It is incredibly rich in resources, but at the same time faces many challenges. Being recently divorced from Bihar, there is the feeling that it will have shared the same Government apathy as was witnessed in Bihar. In addition, the state has a large number of tribals who are not exactly swimming in prosperity (in wretched conditions is more the term), and are a breeding ground for the naxalite movement, like other states nearby.
In such a situation, it is necessary that the Government and the Congress party provide good governance, especially since the Government is held up the Congress, and the Government is actually a UPA Government, just like the UPA Government at the center. So, in order to ensure good Governance in the state, one would have thought that the Congress would keep a special eye on the state; it seems like just the opposite though. Just like it tolerated Lalu's bad governance in Bihar and never raised its voice against it for political reasons, the same thing seems to be happening in Jharkand:

“The lack of ability of the Chief Minister to act on decisions of the ministers and his indifference have held up projects and created restlessness among the people.” The Chief Minister in question is Jharkhand’s Madhu Koda. And the comment is not from an Opposition leader but from one of Koda’s cabinet colleagues, Bandhu Tirkey.
Nothing seems to be moving in Koda’s Jharkhand. Files are stuck and projects are held up while money meant for development is lying unused. Less than a year after it was formed, the UPA coalition government in Jharkhand has developed cracks and the ministers are displaying their restlessness in public.
The mess is not just about development. For the first time in six years, the Auditor General, in an affidavit filed at the Jharkhand High Court last month, indicted the government for not furnishing financial records of more than Rs 40,000 crore. Worse, the state has failed to utilise funds meant for development. For instance, against the plan outlay of Rs 6,500 crore during 2006-07, it spent just Rs 2,714 crore.

This is a disaster in the making, and it seems even worse that such a mineral rich state is suffering because of the ineptitude or carelessness of its Chief Minster. If the Congress does not watch out, the BJP will come right back and dismantle the Government in the next elections, or even earlier. When Ministers in the Government moan the lack of development, one can be sure something is badly amiss. Read the referred article, you will get an idea of how bad things really are.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Corruption, Development, Election, Governance, Responsibility