Monday, January 05, 2009

Omar Abdullah brings forth a new arena in Kashmir ?



The Jammu and Kashmir issue remains complicated. The state was signed into the Indian Union in difficult circumstances, at a time when Pakistani invaders wanted to conquer the state for eventual integration into Pakistan. At the time, the Maharajah of the state finally changed his stance from trying to be independent and signed the instrument of Accession and the state officially became a part of the Indian Union. The State however had a status that was separate from almost any other state in the Union (some states have special status that prevent outsiders from being able to buy land and so on, but no other state has the level of autonomy that this state has), and which is something that continues to irritate many Indians. The basic question remains as to why the state has been granted the special level of autonomy ? It is proclaimed that it is so because it has a special character, but the basic doubt remains as to whether this is because it is the only Muslim majority state in the Indian Union. However, this is an endless debate, and just like many other issues, it is very doubtful as to whether these provisions will ever be repealed.
The last 1 year has seen many strange things happening in the Valley. The Congress was in command, with Ghulam Nabi Azad being the Chief Minister (as part of the agreement with the PDP of the Mufti where the Chief Minister's post revolves between the PDP and the Congress 50:50). However, like similar arrangements in many other parts of the country, this one also had its strains, with the PDP not particularly satisfied once it had to hand over the Chief Ministership to the Congress (and the PDP never liked Ghulam Nabi Azad). And then the Amarnath issue blew up.
At some time in the past, the High Court had ordered the Government to improve the facilities for devotees visiting the Amarnath shrine in Kashmir, and eventually the J & K Government under him made a cabinet decision in that regard by transferring some amount of land to the Amarnath committee for preparing temporary structures; however, this decision caused a major upheaval in the valley. Separatist sentiment got invoked, and even the PDP essentially backed away and Azad also resigned. However, once the transfer of land was put on hold, residents of the Jammu area launched a major agitation. For a long time, the residents of Jammu have felt like second class citizens. With the Kashmir valley being a political concern due to its Muslim majority, Jammu has always felt that it has been treated as an unequal partner. It was the cancellation of the transfer of land that somehow made these sentiments burst out (there must have been a lot of incitement, but there was a genuine display of anger by people as well), and an agitation that showed no way out for the Congress Government forced it to bend towards the Jammu agitators and transfer the land to the Committee.
In this environment, it was felt that elections would not be a good idea, what with separatist sentiment having been very vocal in the previous months, but the elections surprised everyone. Inspite of calls by the Hurriyat Conference and the separatists, people turned out to vote in large numbers. It is speculated that this voting should not be seen as an under-cutting of the sentiment towards freedom, but more about local governance issues. I believe that we should see this as a right step, since elections are meant to show that the will of the people is paramount in electing politicians who can govern, and the election of the National Conference young leader (and a former Central External Affairs Minster of State) Omar Abdullah is a step in the right direction. Even though the NC is tainted with having helped cause the rise in azaadi sentiment by having rigged the elections in 1987, it is a party that has always seen the future of Kashmir with India. If Omar Abdullah delivers good governance, it will go a long way in destroying the separatist sentiment.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 9:51 AM    


Saturday, October 25, 2008

The drama over Raj Thackeray



The drama over Raj Thackeray is reaching a new high. Raj Thackeray, once he split from the Shiv Sena had to make a separate image for himself. So, one of the ways to do this was to try to appeal to the parochial nature of people; blame outsiders for whatever is the economic poor condition and try to inflame their sentiments. He has managed to be somewhat successful in this quest, inflaming sentiments and overall leading to a situation where immigrants from North India have been attacked inside Mumbai and other parts of the state of Maharashtra. In the past, this led to panic and the temporary stoppage of many industrial units with many of their workers running away.
And how does the Chief Minister handle this whole situation. The Shiv Sena has long been a thorn in the side of the Congress in Maharashtra, with their more pro-Marathi position and higher propensity to appeal to populist sentiment. The Congress cannot afford take such positions, since it needs to appeal to all sections of people, and cannot afford to antagonize the voters of North Indian origin. And of course, taking a more extremist position in Maharashtra would expose them to a backlash elsewhere; and their chief Sonia Gandhi would be targeted for such positioning; so if you get a person all ready to be more extremist than the Shiv Sena, you can imagine the scenario of a Congress Chief Minister salivating over the prospect of the Sena's divided vote.
What this has resulted in is the Congress treating Raj Thackeray with kid gloves; they come out with empty soundbeats about 'The law will take its own course', 'We will protect everyone and not let violence happen', and so on. And yet, they allow the lumpen elements of the MNS to attack and do violence in broad daylight, they do token arrest of Raj Thackeray, keep him in absolute comfort and let him out by the next day (first time, they let him out within a few hours, and the next time overnight). The police officers claim that they have nothing against Raj Thackeray. And they can see the campaign working, the Shiv Sena is now unsure of how to behave and is trying to take credit for the campaign of the MNS. Read this report of the treatment of Raj:

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) leader Raj Thackeray need not worry about being arrested during Diwali, at least in the case filed by the Kalyan railway police. A Kalyan sessions court on Friday extended its interim protection to Thackeray till the next date of hearing, which falls on November 11. Sessions judge K K Tantrapale, however, emphasised that one of the conditions for the interim protection was that Thackeray will have to refrain from giving provocative and inflammatory speeches.
The judge questioned whether the state would be able to ensure the smooth functioning of the court if Thackeray was ordered to remain present in court. ‘Is the state machinery ready to provide adequate bandobast in the court premises,’ the judge asked the prosecutor. The judge further told the prosecutor that on Tuesday MNS activists had managed to forcibly enter the court premises and shouted slogans and created a commotion. Salian assured the court that the police would put in place adequate security.


This whole situation has seen a woeful lack of an attempt by the State Government to try and prevent the violence, and the whole atmosphere of intimidation that is equally bad. Even after large scale condemnation by various parties (including allies of the Congress), there does not seem to be any clear attempt to show Raj Thackeray the violations of law that he has committed. Instead, after seeing the repeated
statements of Raj (followed by direct action of his partymen), I am reminded of the way that the militants expelled most of the pandits from the Kashmir Valley. It is like a 2 step process, where Raj does not directly state violence, but leaves nothing else to be desired, and then his partymen carry out the actual violence.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 10:36 AM    


Sunday, May 04, 2008

Raj Thackeray at it again, threatens North Indians



In yet another rally on the 3rd of May, Raj Thackeray continued on his North Indian campaign; even though he was apparently counselled by the police and by the state Human Rights Commission, Thackeray refused to be mellowed down. Read examples of what he said:

He said north Indians wanted to take over the state and their ‘chhat pujas’ were meant to be a show of strength. "I declare here today that no other day except Maharashtra Day will be celebrated in Maharashtra," he told the cheering crowds. "Arrest me for this if you can," he dared the police. He told MNS leaders to shed their complacence and advised his supporters to "take action" whenever they felt necessary. "Don’t wait for instructions," he said.
He warned that north Indians who did not speak Marathi and did not respect Marathi culture would be driven away. Thackeray stated that so far, all Presidents of India who hailed from the south, had chosen not to deliver their public addresses in Hindi.
"They stuck to English, or their own native languages. That’s why they survived," he said.


One would consider these as idle threats, except for the fact that his party members have resorted to threats and violence against North Indians in Mumbai and surrounding regions in the past. And for all this talk, that can be compared with the Kashmiri terrorists expelling Pandits, or to a lower extent with figures such as Hitler, what has happened to him ? Has there been any action taken against him ? Has he been held culpable for violence that has happened ?
No ! The Maharashtra CM, Vilasrao Deshmukh, for reasons that are strictly political in nature, has refused to take any action against him that is of a non-verbal nature. In fact, both of them were the prime movers of a drama whereby the police arrested him, took him to a magistrate, and then he was released within an hour. And even the police did this only after many weeks had passed and violence had already been instigated in his name.
Does the Congress really think it will benefit ? The support of North Indians in many areas of Maharashtra is getting more important politically, and the Congress is sure to be facing negative feedback in the politically important states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. In the past, the parties supporting the Congress in the center have raised this issue, but have been content with verbal assurances by the Congress, even though the Congress has taken on an air of impotency on this issue.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 3:01 AM    


Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Raj Thackeray causes the Shiv Sena to split



Not in the way that you would think, where people would leave the Shiv Sena of Bal and Uddhav Thackeray and join Raj's Nav Nirman Movement, but another byproduct of the lack of protest by the Shiv Sena against the anti-North Indian movement of Raj. In fact, Uddhav almost seemed to be trying to coopt the movement, with statements that, while not explicitly threatening North Indians, saying the message with less violence. However, the talk of jobs for native Marathis first and the lack of any denunciation of Raj's message sent a signal to the North Indians - the Shiv Sena essentially will not hesitate to adopt Raj's message if it seems to be generating popular acclaim.
From time to time, you would get a reminder that the Shiv Sena existed outside Maharashtra, particularly when there would be a demonstration by the Delhi branch against some statement by other parties, or when a Valentine's day celebration needed to be broken up violently. But now it seems that the leaders of these North Indian branches are finding the environment a bit hard to handle.

The Shiv Sena on Wednesday split, with the outfit's North Indian leaders resigning en-masse protesting its "outrageous conduct" towards non-Marathis in Maharashtra and announcing they would form a separate party.
"Shiv Sena is no different from Khalistan and Jammu and Kashmir militant groups which are trying to create a rift between people along regional lines. The main aim of these forces is to split our country," Shiv Sena's North India chief Jai Bhagwan Goyal told reporters in New Delhi on Wednesday.


Seems like finally the Shiv Sena had to make a compromise. It's base is in Maharashtra, and it cannot allow an expelled member like Raj try and take away its thunder, and if that means that its North Indian faction splits, so be it. However, it seems like the Shiv Sena is headed towards overall failure - it was the more extremist among the political parties, but now Raj is threatening to take that position. The NCP of Sharad Pawar has bona fide Marathi leaders and has a centrist position that attracts voters, leaving the Shiv Sena with a diminishing base.
The other party that is badly hit of course is the Congress since they tried to play upto Raj to diminish the Shiv Sena, but the lack of action against Raj by the Congress leadership will cause a backlash against the Congress. Mere words will not be enough.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 10:20 AM    


Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Maharashtra Govt hesitant to act against Raj Thackeray



We are in an age of globalization, with Indians traveling all over the world. The Indian Government routinely takes it up when they see any country trying to put restrictions on Indian citizens working over there (as an example, witness the (though so far unsuccessful) attempts of the Government to get a reversal of the new flawed work permit system for medicos in the UK). It is taken for granted that this is our country, and one can go and live anywhere in the country. There are some exceptions to this, such as the inability of outsiders to buy land in Kashmir, Himachal, etc; but these were special exceptions to prevent these small places from getting swamped by outsiders and retain their character.
To argue a similar thing for a leading metro of the country, on the other hand, is incredible. What Raj Thackeray is doing is almost equivalent to sedition, when he argues that outsiders essentially have no place in Mumbai. Mumbai is one of the most cosmopolitan cities in India, a place that is sought to be converted by the Government into a leading financial center of Asia. Arguing that outsiders are not welcome, and provoking attacks on them is not just criminal, but is going against the whole oneness of the country, and is equivalent to sedition. Mumbai has developed, and continues to develop, because of the movement of talent and people to that city.
The sad part in all this is that even Raj Thackeray knows what he is speaking is gibberish, and due to political reasons. The Shiv Sena itself is one among the leading players in the state, and the political chances of a radical offshoot of the Shiv Sena (headed by a junior politician such as Raj) are very low. The only way to generate enthusiasm for one's party is by taking an extremist position, and trying to appeal to people who feel somewhat threatened by the influx of outsiders.
However, such sentiment needs to be met quickly, and not by treating it as a case of letting off steam. This is not a mass movement that needs to let off steam, this is a cold calculated position that has been taken in order to accrue political advantage, and the quicker that the state takes action, the better:

Raj Thackeray's supporters on Monday continued to carry out sporadic attacks on migrants on Mumbai's streets even as the state government sought to dispel concerns that it was not making a serious effort to quell the violence.
At Worli, taxis owned by Uttar Bharatiyas were stoned and their drivers attacked. In Dadar, hawkers were roughed up and warned against doing business in the area. The conflict even spread to other parts of the state as MNS workers burnt effigies of Raj Thackeray's detractors in Nashik, Beed and Nagpur. The government, under pressure to arrest Raj Thackeray and use tough measures to prevent the conflict from snowballing, sought to defuse the situation by booking him in a case of criminal intimidation.


It seems like the Government does not want to be seen as taking tough action and is hence giving Raj Thackeray a political lease by not cracking down. However, if this violence and action continue, it can have a ripple effect due to corresponding reactions in other parts of the country. The Government cannot afford to play politics with this case, it needs to take action. There will not be many people who will be offended by any crackdown and prosecution of Thackeray.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 12:54 AM    


Saturday, September 15, 2007

Creating terrorists where none existed



India's faces a severe problem with respect to terrorism. Some of them are on the path of terrorism due to wrong incitement, some are due to the situation and some are terrorists due to being mercenaries, and this being the most profitable route. So, for example, terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir got a massive boost by the rigging of the 1987 state elections, and this was further increased due to the massive boost given by Pakistan through training, funds and men. In many sections of the North-East, terrorism has grown because of separatism again, but for many Naxalite affected areas, people also turn to violence because the state and its institutions have failed them. Hence, the message always goes out from security experts that innocents must not be harmed, and a lot of care and attention must be taken to ensure that people do not feel prompted to turn to terrorism to escape state repression. Those who would have seen Gulzaar's movie 'Machis' would see one example of this happens. In Kashmir right now, the biggest measure that brings hundreds of people out to protest against security forces is the case of frame-ups and innocents being killed. Such one-off problems increases the total problem of handling the insurgency.
But it looks like these set of people in the security forces did not hear about all these problems:

The CBI has found that Intelligence Bureau operatives colluded with Delhi Police special cell sleuths to 'plant' RDX on two youths who were arrested as 'Al Badr terrorists’, TOI has learnt. The shocking conclusion comes a month after the agency told the Delhi High Court that the special cell’s probe into the murky affair "didn’t inspire confidence".
Top CBI sources told TOI on Wednesday that the seized RDX appeared to have been planted on the two 'terrorists' Mohd Moarif Qamar and Irshad Ali. The agency will submit its report, which indicts officers of IB and Delhi Police special cell, to the court on October 24. While similar episodes in the past have hurt the credibility of the anti-terror agencies, this one stands out because it marks a rare instance where Intelligence Bureau operatives collaborated in the plot hatched by Delhi Police’s special cell against its former informers.


Even though one can sometimes have some sympathy for these security personnel because of the intense pressure on them to show results, these actions only tend to increase disaffection and not bring any benefit either in the short-term or long-term. The Home Ministry & Defence Ministry need to again reinforce the message of not going in for these kind of frame-ups.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 10:53 AM    


Sunday, July 15, 2007

Changing nature of India's terrorist threat



India, an exporter of terrorism to the world? That would be an incredible cross for the country to bear, and yet recent events have brought that question much closer to everybody's mind. There does not seem to be much doubt that the recent terrorists attempts in England were the work primarily of Indian Muslims from Bangalore, notwithstanding the Prime Minister's attempted confession of shock at this and his degree of concern over the condition of the families of those caught.
The trail of events seem to lead to the fact that a fair amount of the inculcation into jehadist and terrorist thought had been already there in the minds of the people already arrested. The fact that they were fully indoctrinated during their stay in England does not clear us of the need to ensure that this country does not come under the shadow of international terrorism. India already has too many home grown terrorists of all religions and types (ULFA, Maoists, Kashmiri, Naga, Sikh, etc).
However, and this is a very delicate issue, the type of mass death and destruction that can happen due to the terrorists taking inspiration from a hardline interpretation of Islam is much greater than any other that the country has seen. Kashmiri terrorists of the JKLF type are strong believers in the concept of liberating Kashmir from Indian control, but it is only when the more hardline Islamic inspired terrorism of the Lashkar and its like took control that we saw many more attacks all over the country, especially the ones aimed at creating discord between communities (attacks on temples and mosques).
There are many such organizations in the country that are inspired by a so-called Wahabi path of Islam which believes that non-believers eventually need to be conquered and all nations need to be under one God, Allah. An example of a terrorist organization is the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) that was banned, but even when it was being banned, Laloo Prasad Yadav was in support.
Even now, the Government will be very careful about a crackdown on the areas where such hardline thoughts are being preached, primarily the madrasas. This is rotten justice. If somebody is preaching separatism or jehad or terrorism, measures need to be taken to shut it down and bring such a person to justice, but due to politics, the Government will not take such actions. A case in comparison is the situation in Assam where there is widespread pressure on the Government to take quick and hard action against ULFA, with no concerns about it being an organization comprising primarily Hindus.
If we have to prevent the radicalization of the minority community (and we have already seen an example of how bad that can be in Punjab), then we need to take the required measures to ensure that there is no atmosphere where such breeding can happen, where people can preach jehad or terrorism or separatism and get away under the guise of being a minority.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 10:53 AM    


Monday, February 12, 2007

ULFA - will talks happen again ??



Sunday morning, a leisurely waking up and relaxing. After a few minutes to allow the eyes to adjust to a new day, I picked up the Sunday Times of India. And what do I see? On the front page, at the side column, there is a small tidbit that states that the Assam government is ready to start talks with ULFA and that they have struck the right chord.
There are can only be two reasons for such a news:1. Either the Times of India has got the story wrong and there is no such news.2. The Government of Assam (and by extension, the Congress) has gone totally bonkers.
Read this article,

The Assam government has reportedly struck the right chord with Ulfa for chief minister Tarun Gogoi to restart a peace initiative.
Sources said a direct contact has been established between the militant outfit and the political leadership. The Centre is also ready to back Gogoi in the endeavour to bring peace to the state.

This whole business struck me as very strange. Let me just do a brief summary - The ULFA wants Assam to be sovereign, out of India, and presumably under ULFA control. They are based out of neighbouring countries and are supposedly being supported by the ISI, which puts them in the same bracket as the Kashmiri terror organizations. They run their own jungle camps, and have killed a large number of innocent people to further their image. They regularly extort money from businsses, in fact from anyone who has money.
In the past (late 2003), India asked the Bhutanese army to attack their bases in Bhutan, and the ULFA were routed from their bases in Bhutan (and the Bhutanese army also suffered some casualties).
This was a step in the path to crushing the ULFA totally. Subsequently, the Indian army also conducted operations against the ULFA, but were called off due to political reasons. The army was forced to participate in a ceasefire when negotiations with ULFA were going on, even as it was reported that leadership of the ULFA had been cornered.
And what was the net result of the ceasefire? The ULFA used this time to regroup and get itself back into a fighting force. Now the same thing is happening, the ULFA is being pressurized by the army, and so we hear the same tactics about negotiations and cessation of hostilies. Do we never learn? Or, are there more nefarious reasons for the same?
One of the reasons that comes up frequently is that the Congress party needs the ULFA to fend off its political opponents, and that in elections, the ULFA issues diktats to voters to not vote for any other party, instead to vote for the Congres. The ULFA has massacred innocent civilians recently, and there can be no grounds to behave in any lenient way towards them.
They are a bunch of criminals, and if the Congress can get above partisan politics, then the ULFA will be treated just like the criminals and murderers that they are. In addition, the nation needs to retain its credibility if we ask others nations to risk their forces against the support infrastructure of the ULFA.

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posted by Ashish Agarwal @ 2:53 AM