The modern thinking Indian

Part of the worries about global warming is about the loss of glaciers, with increasing melting and lower mass covered by the glaciers. Recent reports have confirmed the data, that glaciers are indeed getting impacted. Since glaciers are one of the primary source of water for the world's rivers, which are in turn are the primary sources of fresh water, water for irrigation purposes, and also energy generation through dams, such reports can only increase the alarm levels for the future of the world's population. Availability of fresh water is already problematic for huge chunks of the world's population, and these confirmation by scientists can only confirm that we are headed in for more trouble (link to article):

U.S. scientists monitoring shrinking glaciers in Washington and Alaska reported this week that a major meltdown is under way. A 50-year government study found that the world's glaciers are melting at a rapid and alarming rate. The ongoing study is the latest in a series of reports that found glaciers worldwide are melting faster than anyone had predicted they would just a few years ago. It offers a clear indication of an accelerating climate change and warming earth, according to the authors.
Since 1959, the U.S. Geological Survey, which published the study on its Web site, has been tracking the movements of the South Cascade glacier in Washington and the Wolverine and Gulcana glaciers in Alaska. The three glaciers are considered "benchmarks" for the conditions of thousands of other glaciers because they're in different climate zones and at various elevations.

The melting of the glaciers has both long term and short term problems. Along with the increase in water levels due to melting of polar caps and ice on Greenland, this melting of the glaciers will initially result in river levels going up, eventually contributing to higher sea caps; over a longer period, the glaciers will contribute lower amounts of fresh water and affect huge sections of the world's population. At the same time, the world's leaders cannot quit bickering, and take the steps required to reduce global warming.

Labels: Deal, Environment, Fresh Water, Future, Glacier, Global Warming, Melting, Ocean Levels, Politics, Reduction, Research, Scientific Study, Sea Levels

National parties have always had problems with the concept of partners in different states, since the concept of having a partner who is strong in a state is that the national party has to play second fiddle in the specific state. The BJP faces this to some extent in Punjab (where the Akali Dal believes that it is the stronger party), in Bihar (where the JD(U) is the stronger party), in Maharashtra (where the playing second fiddle to the Shiv Sena is something that the party does not really like), in Orissa (where the senior member, Naveen Patnaik's BJD moved away suddenly); however, the BJP has less scope for such problems in the southern states where it needs to expand since it does not have much of a base in Andhra, Tamil Nadu, or Kerala. Similarly, states such as West Bengal are out of its reach for some time.
However, the Congress is running into far more problems with respect to its alliance, especially as it publicly (and in full media awareness) pitches for more allies post-results. For 5 years, the Congress lived with alliance partners without much problems except for the Left (whose morals always caused them to have problems with the policies of the Left). However, as it approached the election, it started shedding allies, until it is primarily right now left with just a few - Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and IUML in Kerala.
In other states, the basic problem is with having to search for allies who are either in competition with the Congress, or are in competition with the current allies of the Congress. So, for example when Rahul Gandhi suggested that the Congress is open to new allies, he was scouting for support from the left, from Nitish Kumar's JD(U), from the AIADMK, from Naveen Patnaik's BJD, he immediately ran into trouble. The Congress is allied with Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal, and in both Kerala and Bengal, the Congress is pitted in a battle with the Communist Parties. Mamta did not appreciate the comments by Rahul inviting support from the Left, and neither will the DMK about any potential support from Jayalalitha. Similarly, Lalu Prasad Yadav will certainly not be happy about any overtures to Nitish Kumar.
In states such as Orissa, the Congress is in bitter competition with the BJD, and similarly with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. It will difficult for it to accept support from these parties, since the state units of the Congress will find it difficult to support these changed circumstances, but they will not have an option if the Congress needs support for the Central Government. And a number of such parties will provide support since they will also get their pound of flesh from the Government formation. The next few weeks will be interesting to watch, people will truly understand the meaning of the phrase, 'nothing is impossible'.

Labels: Alliance, BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, India, Left, Parliament, Politics

In a landmark deal that broke many facets of the international nuclear embargo on NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) non-signatory nations, the US has finally signed a nuclear deal with India. This has been among the most heated and debated agreements in recent times. Part of a mission to make US-India ties closer, and to relax some of the restrictions on India in the nuclear area, the deal took a lot of diplomatic effort to get through, and the final legal step of the deal was signed in by President Bush. This last step was not necessary for India to go ahead with nuclear deals with other nations, but in light of the recent efforts by the US administration to push the deal, the Indian side decided to wait for the US Congress approval.

US President George W Bush has signed into law a nuclear deal with India, which ends a three-decade ban on US nuclear trade with Delhi. The landmark agreement was approved by the US Congress nearly a week ago. The deal will give India access to US civilian nuclear technology and fuel in return for inspections of its civilian, but not military, nuclear facilities.
India says the accord is vital to meet its rising energy needs. Critics say it creates a dangerous precedent. They say it effectively allows India to expand its nuclear power industry without requiring it to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as other nations must. The US restricted nuclear co-operation with India after it tested a nuclear weapon in 1974.

The Indian side faced tremendous challenges in getting this deal through. The process was started by a discussion with the BJP ruled Indian Government and the Bush Administration, and was then negotiated by the Congress Government with the US Administration a couple of years back. The Indian Government was a minority Government, and dependent on the Communist Parties and many other parties. The Communist Parties, although against the nuclear policies of the Indian Government, have always despised a closer relationship with the United States and refused to flatly support such a policy, warning of a end to the Government (and since the Government was in a minority, an end seemed quite natural if their support ended).
For a long time, it seemed that the Government had given up, after all the nuclear deal was not a vote-winner, the deal also seemed to be against the interests of the Muslim minority vote that the Congress wants, and so on. And then, after many months, Dr. Manmohan Singh finally decided that enough is enough; he literally forced the Government to agree to his stand that they back the deal; to the extent that manipulations were allowed in order to make sure that the Government retained a majority in Parliament.
Getting the deal through the Nuclear Suppliers Group was another difficult task. There were many nations wedded to the cause of denial of technology to anybody who had not signed upto the NPT, and it required intensive effort by the US to get the group to agree. China in the end tried to prod other nations, but the US pressure (and a small amount of Indian pressure) was enough to get the member to eventually agree, even though it was totally under pressure.
The United States also had to face opposition internally, both within the Administration, and outside in the strategic community; people were reluctant to approve any exemptions to the NPT; thought was that this gave India the right to use its uranium resources to push its military weapons program; also that this gave the wrong signal to others such as Iran and Pakistan.
Overall, this deal will provide a vast impetus to the nuclear energy commercial business; with India planning a large number of reactors to meet a portion of its energy needs, a number of companies worldwide will benefit.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Energy, India, Nuclear, Politics, US

The BJP suffered massively in the vote of confidence for the Congress Government over the nuclear deal. In the event of a loss for the Opposition, even though the Left would lose its position from a commanding influence on policy over the past 4 years, somehow, the Left is not a party that you associate the notion of loss with. If they lose influence, they will go back to being an ineffective opposition with their 50+ MP's, with people not really caring about their position on issues; or that they at one time had a major influence on the policy of the Government of India.
On the other hand, the BJP had much more to lose. It is the main opposition party in waiting, and seemed to be ready to strike at the time when the Government was weak because of the withdrawal of the support by the Left party. The party seemed to commit a lot of effort, but was soon overtaken by Mayawati; the same story, most parties that could be with the BJP were already with it, while Mayawati, after her embrace by the UNPA and the Left, was an attractive upcoming secular power. All this having happened, the BJP had to suffer actual disaster during the election; unable to keep all its MP's with it:

Meanwhile, acting tough, the BJP on Wednesday expelled all eight party MPs who cross-voted or abstained during the confidence motion in Lok Sabha. The party also decided to launch a nationwide agitation against UPA on "corruption and degradation" of democratic values of the country. BJP said the party cannot brook indiscipline in its ranks and decided to take extreme action against those MPs who violated the whip issued by the party to vote against the UPA government in the confidence motion.
Main opposition BJP was the worst sufferer with six of its MPs voting in favour of the motion moved by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Sombhai Patel, Babubhai Katara and Brijbhushan Sharan Singh were among the BJP MPs who voted in favour of the government, while Haribhau Rathod was among the party MPs who abstained.

The BJP is not unaware of the attractions and inducements during periods in which individual MP's and MLA's count, and it is the political and organizational ability of a party to keep all its voting members with it, something in which it seems to have failed.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Deal, Defections, Politics

For some time now, many supporters and those slightly leaning towards the BJP are very troubled by the stand that the BJP has been taking towards the nuclear deal. In the beginning, there was a lot of waffling towards the deal, with Advani once urging the party to review the deal. In addition, Brajesh Mishra, seen as close to the former Prime Minister and tall leader, Atal Behari Vajpayee, has come out in open support to the deal (even though the rest of the party is shocked by his stand). For most of the middle class supporters of the deal (especially for those who care about this topic), the deal is making the best of a bad situation, and it enables closeness towards the US, something that is seen as natural to India (left leaning people will disagree, but if you leave aside the blinkers of a non-aligned world, would you rather be more friendly with the US than with say states such as Iran / Venezuela / Russia / China).
The BJP / NDA must be seeing the current separation between the Left and the Congress as a chance to bring the Government down, and then do what ? Even now, I believe that the BJP is no closer to getting to power. It will win in the states where it won the state elections, but there are vast stretches of the country where it will come a cropper, such as Uttar Pradesh where Mayawati is reigning supreme, in states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the same level of development has not happened as in Gujrat. And in the current horse-trading for getting votes in Parliament, Mayawati seems to be getting all the publicity. She is the one to whom many undecided MP's are going towards. Read this:

Sources said the saffron party is in a fix and fears of a backlash in either situation of the government winning or losing the trust vote. "NDA is nowhere in the picture. If the government loses, the credit goes to Mayawati and the Third front. If it wins then Mulayam would emerge as a winner and strategist," a leader of one of the NDA constituents said.
In the BJP camp, leaders fear that UPA losing the vote would certainly be a booster for Mayawati camp but if the government wins the trust vote, BJP would be accused by parties like BSP of conniving with the Congress to bail them out, sources added.

The BJP currently is not any closer to getting more allies to support it. What it really should do is to let the Government survive, lurch from one problem to another as it deals with having to pay back all the political debt it took onto win this vote, and let voter disenchantment with high inflation keep on getting stoked. Further, it really needs to get more time to set its house in order in the northern states, and re-activate the fames Sangh network in Uttar Pradesh. Such time would also some fissures to appear in Mayawati's support base among the forward castes.

Labels: BJP, Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Nuclear, Politics

If you consider the pedigree of these 2 gentlemen, RJD chief Lalu Prasad (who is a self-claimed socialist having risen up through the support of the people), and CPI leader AB Bardhan (and of course the Communists always consider themselves to be the representatives of the people, even if the ungrateful people do not elect them to the national level government); then you would realize that they should be natural allies. Both are opposed to the Congress (or were opposed earlier), both have come up through the support of the poor and the repressed sections of society; and of course both are violently and vehemently opposed to the BJP (after all, both these parties are pure secular parties). So, having said all this, why do the following statements not seem out of place and seem completely normal since these are political people after all:

Launching a scathing attack on CPI leader AB Bardhan for his remarks that UPA was buying MPs for Rs 25 crore each, RJD chief Lalu Prasad on Friday said the CPI leader should prove his 'nasty' allegations or 'apologise'. "Bardhan has harmed the reputation of all parties with his comments. He has said a very nasty thing," Prasad told reporters after chairing a meeting of the RJD Parliamentary Party at his residence here.
The CPI leader has "defamed" MPs of all parties and "assassinated their character", Prasad said adding, "he should either prove his allegations or apologise". Spewing more venom on the CPI general secretary, he said, "The country will never forgive Bardhan. He has defamed Parliamentary democracy. His allegations are a conspiracy to destroy the very foundations of democracy."

Of course, if the situation so requires, then the same Lalu could go off the next day to meet Bardhan and expound to the press about what a great leader Bardhan actually is; and no one will consider this to be abnormal. Is it then any issue that most Indian consider politicians to not have any morals, and be downright power-hungry ?

Labels: Deal, Left, Morality, Politics

The Left has always modeled itself on its adherence to political probity, and to good norms (in the process considering itself the party with the highest morals); of course it is another matter that people who cannot stand the policies of the Left (and its pandering to an out-dated economic model and to its adherence to a blind model of secularism (you just have to remember their threatening the Samajwadi Party with the loss of the Muslim vote if it supported the Congress) consider it the most morally bankrupt party. And of course, its dictatorial and violent ways in Bengal shows up its true nature. But this particular example takes the cake.
In the Indian system of parliamentary democracy, the Speaker of the Lok Sabha is seen to be an impartial judge, and even though a lot of politics go into the election of the Speaker, once in, the speaker is seen as the most unbiased political person, and specially not supporting the policies of the party from which he was elected. Many speakers in the past have tried to adhere to this policy (and some have succeeded to some degree). The current speaker, Somnath Chaterjee, has always claimed that he is now not a Left party member, but the speaker, the person who no longer will profess any political beliefs.
So, how come such a situation has come to pass that the speaker is being told by Comrade Karat that he is now a Left party member and should withdraw from the post of the speaker. This is crass bad political behavior, trying to force a person to resign who is supposed to be now above political beliefs:

Despite the pressure mounted on him by the CPM leadership to resign his post immediately, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee remains defiant as he questioned their very decision to go along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). An angry Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) general secretary Prakash Karat, according to party sources, has asked Politburo member Sitaram Yechury to convince Chatterjee about quitting the Speaker's post, which was the result of an understanding that the Left had with the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) when it decided to prop it up in 2004.
However, Chatterjee, who has had meetings with Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Petroleum Minister Murli Deora during the last two days, is insisting he would give up his Lok Sabha membership also if he had to quit the Speaker's post. The Speaker is believed to have told the CPM leadership that he would not be in a position to vote against the UPA in the Lok Sabha. Chatterjee, who will be 79 on July 25, is also arguing that such a move would cast a shadow on the Speaker's office as it is supposed to be above party politics.

Somehow, in this case, one does not think that it is the loss of the chair that is worrying Chaterjee as much as the fact that suddenly he is being forced to resign to support a cause for which he was not consulted.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Morality, Nuclear, Parliament, Politics

Who would have believed that something like this could happen even a month back ? When last year the Prime Minister had declared that his (actually, the Congress party of Sonia Gandhi) was not a one-issue Government, it was taken for granted that with the Left putting a veto on the nuclear deal, and with the allies unwilling to sacrifice the Government for a nuclear deal, the nuclear deal was as good as dead. And even recently, when the Government again raised the issue, it seemed like with the Left unwilling to back down, the deal would not happen, and the entire issue would be political posturing.
And then, suddenly, like a Jack in the Box suddenly popping out, the Congress and the Prime Minister appear to have outsmarted the Left. With the Left even otherwise not leaving a chance to criticize the Government over many issues, the Government must have been chafing at the tone used by the Left (the Congress, even in a coalition Government is never really tolerant of the people providing support). And the political movement by the Congress and the Samajwadi Party must have surprised the CPM and their other left brothers the maximum. They have been so used to being able to turn the heat on the Government that even the slightest hint of alternate support from the SP will be enough to make the Congress stand up and look the left in the eye.
And this is what precisely seems to have happened. The Congress will appreciate the support provided by the 39 MP's of the SP (vs. the 59 MP's of the Left); at the same time, the SP is in a bad state in its home state of Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati's political stars look to be continually on the rise, and the SP really needs an alliance to prevent the split of its votes. And one has to admire its political cunning - in order to avoid the charge of being anti-Muslim and get a reason for changing its stand to a nuclear-deal supporter, it used a meeting with APJ Kalam to showcase as a reason for changing its stand. He is a former President and a missile man, so his support is important to justify a change in stand, and he is a middle class and educated Muslim icon, so this will help mollify its Muslim base.
Where does this leave the Left ? It has an alltime high of 59 MP's, but Kerala is famous for changing its political mind quickly, and the Left suffered some major reversals in West Bengal local elections, thus ensuring that early next elections could see a much reduced Left MP count. Even now, it could almost seem like that they are no longer relevant.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Election, Left, Muslim, Nuclear, Reform

This is surely something that must be scaring the Congress chief (Sonia Gandhi, not Manmohan Singh). The same Prime Minister who last August backed down after initially acting like a lion (remember the statement - 'this is not a one issue Government' ?) is now suddenly passing out signals that he wants the nuclear deal to be done, and is willing to sacrifice the support of the left.
Sonia Gandhi must be scared out of her wits - her compliant Prime Minister is suddenly displaying a spine, her reluctant allies (the ever pressurizing left) are threatening that they will have a team outside Rashtrapati Bhavan to give the withdrawal letter to the President if the Government states its intention to go ahead with the nuclear deal, inflation is out of control and threatens to remain so, farmers are protesting in many states because of the fertilizer snafu, the other allies (NCP, DMK, RJD, etc) are all potential allies of the Left and hence not particularly eager to buck the support of the Left and go in for maybe possible early elections where they will also get tagged with the inflation and bad governance tag, and the Congress is losing states left right and center, ceding many of them to the BJP.
This particular issue comes as a surprise to most political observers; after all, the nuclear deal had more or less died out as an issue that the Congress would bother to pick up a fight for - it does not have electoral appeal, most people in the country would not bother to base their voting pattern over such a deal, and the left would have painted proponents of such a deal as being very aligned to the US (not a very appealing prospect to most parties who believe that this would put off the Muslim vote - not a done deal, but most parties believe that this is the likely case). It was only strategic observers who bemoaned the loss that the country was facing over the failure of such a deal (and the fact that such a deal was not something that India's neighboring countries were happy over). There were weaknesses in such a deal, but the fact is that unless India were to steal advanced technology, this deal is about as good a deal as it got (and that too because Washington has its own motives behind such a deal, including the advantages that its own nuclear plant firms would get).
So now what happens ? I would suspect that eventually the Prime Minister will back down; they have already done so many rollbacks because of the pressure of the Left that maybe they have lost the guts and sight to see that the Left would face a bad time if elections were held now. The Left faces pressure because of the Nandigram incident, and Kerala is ripe for a movement of the electorate to the Congress (because the Left Government in Kerala has not exactly been an epitome of good governance); further, if the Left withdraws support now, and the BJP comes to power, then the left loses whatsoever influence it has over the policies of the country.

Labels: Congress, Deal, Governance, Left, Nuclear